AFL Rd 19 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne

[madbluboy]

That changed years ago.

[BluePhantom]

I really hate Clarkson and his thug teams: Tom de Koning to miss with a broken foot and a punctured lung.  :'(  >  >  >

So have they found the moment it happened? And the foot thingy too?

[LP]

That changed years ago.

There was an exception during COVID, but as far as I can tell the terms returned to normal for last season, I can't find any info about the 2024.

I'm sure a change does eventually kick in, but I thought it's a few years from now.

The actually original agreement with the MCC was in place with an expiry date of 2035, but I believe the MCC made concessions to bring that forward so that they could alter schedules around the World Cup Cricket. I think  AFL tried to leverage WA to get a better MCC deal, you might recall the noise from Basil earlier this season, but I also read it looked like the MCC agreement might actually be extended, since then nothing official as far as I know.

Even so, it remains discretionary under AFL powers.

[madbluboy]

No it changed. The MCG is only guaranteed the Grand Final which is locked in for another 30+ years.

[DJC]

The contract requires ten finals (excluding Grand Finals) to be played at the MCG every five years.  It's entirely possible for there to be no games at the MCG for at least two of the finals weekends.

The higher we finish, the better chance we have.

[LP]

The contract requires ten finals (excluding Grand Finals) to be played at the MCG every five years.  It's entirely possible for there to be no games at the MCG for at least two of the finals weekends.

The higher we finish, the better chance we have.

So from last year?

For reference there were 5 in total excluding the GF last year, despite four interstate teams making the finals in 2023, 3 in the 1st week, one Semi and one Prelim, the only away game week 1 was Brisbane because they finished 2nd and the Filth were top, and obviously Brisbane got the Prelim finishing above us.

After week 1, there are only four possible games excluding the GF, two semis and two prelims.

As the ladder currently stands, with five interstate teams currently in the 8, the options to fill The G are slim. You would expect the Swans to get one home final, and probably one out of Port, GWS or Freo subject to final positions. I think it's highly unlikely they send Carlton interstate if we finish anywhere in the top 3, and even less likely they give CheatsFC a home final for finishing below GWS, Port or Freo, especially so if the Filth fail to make the grade.

I realise it's not impossible, but it remains discretionary to the AFL decision makers, the AFL will want to fill The G.

This must be a nightmare scenario for the AFL executive, could you imagine both CheatsFC and Carlton sent packing in week 1, they might as well move the finals interstate then because The G would be a relative graveyard!

[Thryleon]

So from last year?

For reference there were 5 in total excluding the GF last year, despite four instate teams making the finals, 3 in the 1st week, one Semi and one Prelim, the only away game week 1 was Brisbane because they finished 2nd and the Filth were top, and obviously Brisbane got the Prelim finishing above us.

After week 1, there are only four possible games excluding the GF, two semis and two prelims.

As the ladder currently stands, you would expect the Swans to get one home final, and probably one out of Port, GWS or Freo subject to final positions. I think it's highly unlikely they send Carlton interstate if we finish anywhere in the top 3, and even less likely they give CheatsFC a home final for finishing below GWS, Port or Freo, especially so if the Filth fail to make the grade.

I realise it's not impossible, but it remains discretionary to the AFL decision makers, the AFL will want to fill The G.

lp

It's as simple as.  The 1st team will play home vs the 4th team.  The 2nd team will play home vs the 3rd team.

The same is true of 5th vs 8th and 6th vs 7th.

You can put hypotheticals around it, but if the season was called and we 3rd instead of 2nd, the G will host Geelongs game vs Port and that's that. 

The 8 isn't set but I can only see essendon or Port falling out in favour of the doggies, hawthorn or Melbourne at this stage which generally means it won't be us at the G if we don't finish top 2.

[LP]

lp

It's as simple as.  The 1st team will play home vs the 4th team.  The 2nd team will play home vs the 3rd team.

The same is true of 5th vs 8th and 6th vs 7th.

That's what we expect, we get that the Home State advantage goes to higher finishing teams.

But the AFL has always stated it always reserves the right to schedule finals where it sees fit, there are no guarantees, and if we end up with five interstate teams in the Top 8, I suspect you'll see an exception this year given the right circumstances.

I can't recall the full spread of ticket pricing for finals last year, I wonder what the average might be, I suspect an average in the $100+ range for finals given the lower cost tickets are limited in total. I know for the GF the basic 2023 ticket was $185.

The Gabba holds 42K, SCG 48K, but the MCG is 100K, and likely a sell out for either Carlton or CheatsFC. The AFL would be shooting itself in the foot if it shipped Carlton and / or CheatsFC interstate.

I'm betting the AFL likes the money, and you'll get some spin on why a team doesn't get a home final. I don't think that assertion is outlandish or a surprise to anyone. AFL is a business, we've seen before when the sport gets in the way of business the sport loses.

[kruddler]

That's what we expect, we get that the Home State advantage goes to higher finishing teams.

But the AFL has always stated it always reserves the right to schedule finals where it sees fit, there are no guarantees, and if we end up with five interstate teams in the Top 8, I suspect you'll see an exception this year given the right circumstances.

You've asked the same question 5 different ways. The answer has been the same each time.

Home team will get the home final.

Yes, 'discretionary' powers exist so that if something burns down, or covid happens etc it can move things. But 999 times out of 1000, it is the way it is and thats that.

Number of interstate teams making finals means nothing.

The AFL opted to extend the GF agreement with the MCC which sacrificed the requirement to have games there each week of the finals.

[DJC]

lp

It's as simple as.  The 1st team will play home vs the 4th team.  The 2nd team will play home vs the 3rd team.

The same is true of 5th vs 8th and 6th vs 7th.

You can put hypotheticals around it, but if the season was called and we 3rd instead of 2nd, the G will host Geelongs game vs Port and that's that. 

The 8 isn't set but I can only see essendon or Port falling out in favour of the doggies, hawthorn or Melbourne at this stage which generally means it won't be us at the G if we don't finish top 2.

That's the bottom line Thry.

If there are four Victorian teams at 1, 2, 5 and 6, we get four games at the MCG.  If, for whatever reason, games have to be played on the same day, it can be MCG and Docklands, or Kardinia Park if Geelong is one of those teams.  If interstate teams finish at 1, 2, 5 and 6, there'll be no game in Melbourne in the first week of the finals, unless there's an issue with venue availability.  The AFL has finals contracts with the major interstate stadiums so if the Suns were entitled to a home final, it would be at the Gabba rather than Carrara.  Similarly, GWS would play at the SCG rather than Homebush. 

The only time the AFL could exercise "discretion" with "home games" is if the ten games in five seasons requirement wasn't going to be met - and that's a rolling five years.  I suspect that the AFL and MCC would negotiate a compromise rather that robbing an interstate team of their home final.  As there were five MCG finals in 2023, the AFL only has to have another five finals there by 2027.