AFL Rd 13 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Essendon

[madbluboy]

Did you see Harry and Ben on the club website?

Ben was quite serious when asked about match ups and explained that defenders don't stay on the one opponent but he would probably spend time on Charlie.

Harry's response; "He's too good for you.  He'll kick ten.  You'd better come to me!"

Cracked me up!  )

That was hilarious.

[kruddler]

That's the problem
It's not something that's measurable (one ruck, or two), because there are so many things that come into play.
You can look at win/losses, but that doesn't take into account the quaility of the opposition and a whole lot of other variables that occur during the length of a season, like venue, injury, form, fitness, training loads, roles, weather etc

Whichever way we go this weekend the result will determine the direction of the debate for the next week.
And one option or the other will get a boost :

The only thing you can really confirm is what i've already said.
That is
- The amount of time a ruck plays on the bench and the extra load that puts on the other guys picking up the slack with extra minutes.
- The ruck stats (HTA-RC%) of 2 vs 1 ruck games
- Possessions of 2 rucks vs 1 ruck comparisons (extra (dis)advantage around the ground.

The rest is up for debate.....and has been....repeatedly.

[Lods]

The only thing you can really confirm is what i've already said.
That is
- The amount of time a ruck plays on the bench and the extra load that puts on the other guys picking up the slack with extra minutes.
- The ruck stats (HTA-RC%) of 2 vs 1 ruck games
- Possessions of 2 rucks vs 1 ruck comparisons (extra (dis)advantage around the ground.

The rest is up for debate.....and has been....repeatedly.

Yep
But there are a heap of variables that come into play and affect the overall picture.
Just as an example....

We play Binns instead of Pittonet.
A young bloke still finding his feet, he ends up with a dozen possessions.
The extra runner provides a  bit of extra spell for some of our mids.
But we lose all of the contribution to the mids that Pittonet would generate.
It's never a case of "all gain and no loss".
That's the balance you have to determine as a coaching group.

How significant is that extra rest a runner provides?
Do players like Cripps and Walsh's onfield time reduce significantly because of the extra runner on the bench?
Given that the breaks would be spred over most of our runners, how much extra rest does each actually get?
What is the effect of reducing the game time of our prime movers?
They get a bit of extra rest and that may be beneficial.
But if they're not out there, we lose their influence.
Whose going to spend the most time on the bench.?
There's a fair chance it's the fringe player or one of his ilk.

It's not just a case of extra runner, extra rest.
It's much more complicated than that, and why, when working these combinations out, you need a good bit of football knowledge and experience.

[Thryleon]

Yep
But there are a heap of variables that come into play and affect the overall picture.
Just as an example....

We play Binns instead of Pittonet.
A young bloke still finding his feet, he ends up with a dozen possessions.
The extra runner provides a  bit of extra spell for some of our mids.
But we lose all of the contribution to the mids that Pittonet would generate.
It's never a case of "all gain and no loss".
That's the balance you have to determine as a coaching group.

How significant is that extra rest a runner provides?
Do players like Cripps and Walsh's onfield time reduce significantly because of the extra runner on the bench?
Given that the breaks would be spred over most of our runners, how much extra rest does each actually get?
What is the effect of reducing the game time of our prime movers?
They get a bit of extra rest and that may be beneficial.
But if they're not out there, we lose their influence.
Whose going to spend the most time on the bench.?
There's a fair chance it's the fringe player or one of his ilk.

It's not just a case of extra runner, extra rest.
It's much more complicated than that, and why, when working these combinations out, you need a good bit of football knowledge and experience.

For mine it's not about the rucks it's about the rest.

Often we go two rucks, and pick all the true key position players as well.  With only weitering down back, we can play 2 rucks.

If we play one of marchbank or young, then we can't.

Like kruddler says its about balance.

Mcgovern, Kemp and Newman tend to give us that height from a key tall without being restricted to key talls and provide plenty of run. 

Then with Charlie if vossy wants to throw a cat amongst the pigeons he could drag him up to a wing and put Tom forward. 

I'm happier with one ruck in, but so long as fogarty is playing I feel ok.  He's become the talisman.

[kruddler]

Yep
But there are a heap of variables that come into play and affect the overall picture.
Just as an example....

We play Binns instead of Pittonet.
A young bloke still finding his feet, he ends up with a dozen possessions.
The extra runner provides a  bit of extra spell for some of our mids.
But we lose all of the contribution to the mids that Pittonet would generate.
It's never a case of "all gain and no loss".
That's the balance you have to determine as a coaching group.

How significant is that extra rest a runner provides?
Do players like Cripps and Walsh's onfield time reduce significantly because of the extra runner on the bench?
Given that the breaks would be spred over most of our runners, how much extra rest does each actually get?
What is the effect of reducing the game time of our prime movers?
They get a bit of extra rest and that may be beneficial.
But if they're not out there, we lose their influence.
Whose going to spend the most time on the bench.?
There's a fair chance it's the fringe player or one of his ilk.

It's not just a case of extra runner, extra rest.
It's much more complicated than that, and why, when working these combinations out, you need a good bit of football knowledge and experience.

Too many questions to answer them all but the short version is this.

Everyone gets slightly more rest.
The extra small, gives us rotations not only through the bench but also up forward (or down back).
So Cripps doesn't necessarily have to rest on the bench, you can plonk him at FF for a few minutes at a time and then he is on the ground whenever you need him, rather than stuck on the bench.
Kennedy can go forward for large parts of the game and then do bursts on the ball.
Williams can do similar.
You can even use Fantasia further up the ground in bursts too.

More players = more rest = more 'bursts' = more pressure.

Of course the down side is you can burn out your ruck a bit more, but we've got a fresh one to bring in next week if we need too.

If we ended up doing a swap of rucks every other week we could actually get more out of our #1 ruck each week as a result as they don't get ground down by the pressure of backing up each week.

As a club, we are at our best when we are pressuring.
When we struggle, its because we lack speed and run.
A small over a tall fixes both those problems.

[DJC]

It's not just a case of extra runner, extra rest.
It's much more complicated than that, and why, when working these combinations out, you need a good bit of football knowledge and experience.

And that’s why Vossy and his assistants are paid quite well to ensure that we put the best possible combination on the park each round.

If it was up to me, we’d go with two ruckmen unless there was a compelling reason not to, such as weather, time of day, form and opposition.  However, at least one of those ruckmen has to be able make a decent contribution in a secondary role and both have to do more than just take part in ruck contests.

[LP]

When discussing risks and costs to the team when running two rucks, it can't be ignored the there are risks and costs to the team when running one ruck, there is no free lunch.

Tactics have to be sustainable all season long and viable for finals!

[townsendcalling]

When discussing risks and costs to the team when running two rucks, it can't be ignored the there are risks and costs to the team when running one ruck, there is no free lunch.

Tactics have to be sustainable all season long and viable for finals!

Your solo ruckman goes down in the first 15 mins and you're in trouble! One of your twin towers is displaced and Cripps and Kennedy are left to pick up the ruck scraps. It's a calculated risk!!

[Baggers]

It's a vexxed question this one or two ruckmen.

Seems to moi that every argument for two and every argument for one, is valid and reasonable. I don't envy the MC on this one. Thing is, I believe, both blokes are rippers and really good within their skill sets... which are different! What a terrific problem.

Horses for courses? Perhaps against cheats.com.au this Sunday we replace Fantasia (who really is not doing a great deal at present) with Pitto? Not like for like, but perhaps this is the game to do it. Carroll remains as sub, or maybe this is the game to have Billy as the sub... bit of later speed over the grass?

[DJC]

It's a vexxed question this one or two ruckmen.

Seems to moi that every argument for two and every argument for one, is valid and reasonable. I don't envy the MC on this one. Thing is, I believe, both blokes are rippers and really good within their skill sets... which are different! What a terrific problem.

Horses for courses? Perhaps against cheats.com.au this Sunday we replace Fantasia (who really is not doing a great deal at present) with Pitto? Not like for like, but perhaps this is the game to do it. Carroll remains as sub, or maybe this is the game to have Billy as the sub... bit of later speed over the grass?

Who then does Fantasia's linking up role, the Hollands brothers?

I'm not sure that Elijah has the tank and Ollie is required to run with an Essendon winger.  Having an extra tall (De Koning) in the forward line for periods would free up a small/medium forward so Elijah may get a workout.  That means one less midfielder in the rotation so Williams will have to provide a chop out there.

If we do go with Tom and Pitto, a hell of a lot of thought will have been put into how we make the best use of our extra tall and how we cover the loss of a midfielder/forward.