AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG

[DJC]

Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.

Yes, there's plenty of time for Moir, Binns, Monahan, O'Keeffe, Lemmey, etc.  We're not in the position where we have to expose our "green shoots" to the harshness of AFL footy before they have toughened up.

[RiverRat]

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense,

The so-called 'nonsense' related to Charlie failing to chase

[kruddler]

MBB’s post from the post GWS game thread:

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense, it illustrates one aspect of Fantasia’s game that goes largely unnoticed.

As Thry has pointed out, Fantasia’s leadership is another reason why he is in the team. We have more than our share of relatively inexperienced players and Fantasia’s guidance and encouragement is invaluable.

Is Fantasia in our best 23? Probably not, but he will continue to be selected until Martin and Motlop are back in the mix.

Playing devils advocate, when i posted similar stats, people didn't like them because a pressure act was deemed to be the ability of created pressure without actually doing anything. Like chasing rather than catching.

I did a comparison of tackles, and Fantasia is well behind the other small forwards.

[tonyo]

Don't mind replacing Fantasia, but Moir is still a fair way off. He will be given plenty of time to develop before being paraded out a la Binns. With one or two exceptions, we are right into development and ensuring young players have served a comprehensive apprenticeship.

I know it's early days, but Moir has a bit of Izak Rankine about him.... we can only hope!

[WASurfer]

Binns is the surprise one for me having not got a game yet but coaches must know who's ready and who's not. Last year, Round 1, we threw both Holland and Cowan straight into it. Holland from memory has played nearly every game since. Cowan fell outta favour after half a dozen games or so but comes back in last week and looked like he's hardly missed a beat and was right up for the contest. I can see him as the long term replacement for someone like Newman....can play a shut-down role but still get a bit of the ball himself and with a bit of mongrel too.

Owies for mine is a bit maligned....went at 1.5 goals/game last year in his 18 games and not far off that average again this season. There's not many small forwards who get 20 odd possessions per week but it's hitting the scoreboard and the pressure applied when the ball hits the ground in the forward line....I think both Owies and Durdin are pretty good on that front.

[DJC]

Playing devils advocate, when i posted similar stats, people didn't like them because a pressure act was deemed to be the ability of created pressure without actually doing anything. Like chasing rather than catching.

I did a comparison of tackles, and Fantasia is well behind the other small forwards.

Pressure acts are weighted; physical pressure acts (bumping, pushing, tackling) are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.  Chasing and corralling (Zac Fisher's forte) are worth less because they don't have much impact on the ball carrier's ability to dispose of the ball.  Fantasia isn't tackling as much as Durdin and Owies so he must be doing a hell of a lot more corralling, chasing and closing to be 17 to 8 and 5.

The same applies to Charlie.  Apparently he doesn't chase and his tackle numbers are relatively low so, to be so far ahead of Harry, Durdin and Owies in pressure acts, he must be dynamite on closing acts and corralling.

Harry has incredible acceleration for a big man and his ability to put pressure on defenders by closing and tackling is a bonus for our forwards.  Charlie has greater endurance but not the same acceleration.  He puts his endurance to good use by applying pressure, closing and corralling, but his main priority is to create separation with his defenders.  That's not quite so critical for Harry as he usually enjoys a size and strength advantage.

[madbluboy]

Pressure points are weighted. The ones I posted are pressure acts.

Forwards could argue the weighting favours midfielders where it easier to get a tackle.

[kruddler]

Pressure acts are weighted; physical pressure acts (bumping, pushing, tackling) are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.  Chasing and corralling (Zac Fisher's forte) are worth less because they don't have much impact on the ball carrier's ability to dispose of the ball.  Fantasia isn't tackling as much as Durdin and Owies so he must be doing a hell of a lot more corralling, chasing and closing to be 17 to 8 and 5.

The same applies to Charlie.  Apparently he doesn't chase and his tackle numbers are relatively low so, to be so far ahead of Harry, Durdin and Owies in pressure acts, he must be dynamite on closing acts and corralling.

Harry has incredible acceleration for a big man and his ability to put pressure on defenders by closing and tackling is a bonus for our forwards.  Charlie has greater endurance but not the same acceleration.  He puts his endurance to good use by applying pressure, closing and corralling, but his main priority is to create separation with his defenders.  That's not quite so critical for Harry as he usually enjoys a size and strength advantage.

As MBB said, you are describing something different.

If you compare a players pressure acts with Tackles, you generally see a player higher in one or the other.
So Charlie is high in pressure acts, but low in tackles.
Harry is higher in tackles, but lower in pressure acts.
They almost need to be read together to get a true understanding of how well a player is doing.

What you are talking about is the pressure rating that they show during games, which is a combination of everything you say.

Its very difficult getting consistent stats on all of this stuff.
AFL app, shows different to AFL website, which is different to footywire which is different to AFL tables etc etc

[Thryleon]

Something else is how well they take opportunities when they arise.  I.e.  fantasias 6 touches last week, under what circumstances did he get them and what did he do with it when he did? 

I can honestly say his few touches were dangerous.  Martin is similar.

3 score involvements, 2 inside 50's,1 goal assist and at least one pressure act in front of me that lead to a goal to us with a turnover.  For a total of 17 pressure acts is pretty impressive from a guy who had 72% time on ground, which is in our bottom 4 players. 

He is a worker.  Give him time. 

[LoveNavy]

I know it's early days, but Moir has a bit of Izak Rankine about him.... we can only hope!

Have you watched him in the 2's?
My impression from the broadcast last week was that he ran out of puff. Maybe needs to build his tank. His footy smarts and skills make it look like he has time to size things up. Loads of potential but areas needing attention I expect.