AFL Rd 4 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

[pinot]

The big thing out of this victory - is our boys stayed engaged in the contest.
Even the final moments of the match where Crippa called TDK out of the ruck contest that threw Jackson into a tangent and made a big error. What a move by Crippa.

[DJC]

TDK is again overrated imo, I gave him a vote for breaking even with Jackson in the ruck contests but in all the other stats apart from metres gained he was behind Jackson and the disposals TDK got went at around 37% disposal efficiency, Jackson wasnt much better at 57%. For me it was a nil all draw with those two and I thought Freo shaded us in the midfield where Brayshaw was the best player on the ground and Serong very effective as well.
Thought our backline won us the game led by Weitering and Kemp plus Freo's tall forwards were a non factor and well beaten all game. Freo's defense is helped by their game plan and its Ross Lyon like both in operation and the lack of scoring which just leads to a grinding predictable low scoring slugfest. While Longmuir is coaching I cant see Freo ever being a serious finals contender...

Not quite correct EB; De Koning was ahead in tackles (5-1), inside 50s (5-1), rebound 50s (2-1), contested marks (2-1) and centre clearances (2-0).  That reflects Tom's value around the ground and not just his superior ruckwork this season (averaging 29 hitouts compared to high teens in the last few seasons).  As for disposals, most of Jackson's were backwards, hence his 27m, and not under pressure.  The same goes for most of his teammates who rarely kick to contests and thrive on uncontested footy.  In that context, it's interesting that Brayshaw and Serong wasted so many of their possessions.  In part, that was down to us allowing uncontested passes down the line, then erecting a wall across halfback (or half forward).

It's too early in the season for me to make a call on Freo.  They've got talent and a system that should make them competitive against most teams but they need to find away to score more freely and know when to go defensive.  It will be informative to see how they go against the other top eight teams.

[madbluboy]

I thought TDK was probably our best player.

[Gointocarlton]

I thought TDK was probably our best player.

I thought Tom started the game timidly and when Jackson took that towering grab I thought he's going to have one of the those days. To Tom's credit, I think he turned the tide not long after that mark and at times really grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck (to use old fashioned football parlance). Not the complete "big dog" game but very good indeed and definitely was one of the key players who made sure we stayed in the game.

[madbluboy]

Jackson was the inform ruckman heading into our clash, he was Brad Johnson's rolling AA ruckman last week.

[DJC]

Jackson was the inform ruckman heading into our clash, he was Brad Johnson's rolling AA ruckman last week.

Jackson is currently rated as the tenth best player in the AFL.  At worst, De Koning broke even with him.  A more nuanced assessment would recognise that De Koning had significantly more impact on the outcome of the game than Jackson did, even allowing for Jackson's brain fade hitout that resulted in Cottrell's mark and goal to put us in front.

[crashlander]

Jackson is currently rated as the tenth best player in the AFL.  At worst, De Koning broke even with him.  A more nuanced assessment would recognise that De Koning had significantly more impact on the outcome of the game than Jackson did, even allowing for Jackson's brain fade hitout that resulted in Cottrell's mark and goal to put us in front.

Jackson usually does his best work around the ground, but Tom nullified that totally. It was Tom who took the important marks, not Jackson.
However, Tom's ruckwork probably wasn't as good as Jackson's on the day. Freo seemed to have 'worked out' our midfield structure and limited it.

Tom can be happy with his day's work, but not the way our midfield functioned.

[kruddler]

If I hear that we were 'lucky' again, I'll tear off my own ears! If you want to talk 'lucky', how about Freo getting 66% of their goals from frees... some there, some not. The end.

We've been 'lucky' in our last 7 games decided by 10 points or less: 7-0.

If each of them were genuinly 50-50 results (a toss of the coin) then for 7 tosses of the coin to go your way you are looking at odds of 1 in 128 or 0.78% chance of happening.

Perhaps its not all about luck.

[madbluboy]

Just quietly we have won 15 of our last 17 games. One of the 2 losses was a dead rubber.

[DJC]

Fyfe’s hit on Fog did result in a broken wrist.  Can he still be cited for making contact with Fog’s hand with his shoulder?

I think they’re saying two weeks for Fog’s wrist but I suspect it will be longer.  We’ll miss his relentless pressure but it gives someone else an opportunity.