Carlton 2024 Predictions / Expectations

[LP]

Experience matters, it matters for our players, and it matters for their opponents.

Just like a new or caretaker coach, a player's first AFL season is a honeymoon period.

[Thryleon]

Flaggers 2024

[LP]

Did Patrick Cripps win the John Nicholls Medal in his second season?

Yes he did, and he probably should have won the Rising Star if I recall.

But my comments stand, it's not about stats it's about a player's experience and effectiveness.

Having finished dead last on the AFL ladder, I also recall a lot of debate on this very forum about the value of the different player ranking systems. In particular a lot of debate about why Cripps SC and AFL ranking was so low. It was because some ranking systems do not just award points for possessions, but they deduct points for clangers, poor DE, etc., etc.. As such sMurph was Carlton's highest ranked, Cripps was down in the 70s in several rankings.

Of course for Cripps the 2014 debut season was injury interrupted, just 3 games, so in 2015 he was basically in his 2nd season before everyone had been exposed to him in match ups. In effect that gave Cripps an extra pre-season before his 2nd round of genuine opposition. In 2017, his stats went up but he fell in the rankings.

Which just reinforces what I stated earlier, it's not about stats and the like, it's about experience and effectiveness.

This concept of 2nd year blues is about match ups, players and clubs having experience of opponents, and developing and training for tactics to counter them. It's not instantaneous, it takes time. We call it 2nd year blues because it takes one or two match ups to determine what works, but I suppose you could call it the 25 to 50 blues, and it's another reason why getting players to 100 games quickly is so important.

It's absurd to suggest a player has attracted the same level of scrutiny before they play a game or have an impact, it's not until a player touches up an opponent that the focus really begins.

[DJC]

Yes he did, and he probably should have won the Rising Star if I recall.

But my comments stand, it's not about stats it's about a player's experience and effectiveness.

Having finished dead last on the AFL ladder, I also recall a lot of debate on this very forum about the value of the different player ranking systems. In particular a lot of debate about why Cripps SC and AFL ranking was so low. It was because some ranking systems do not just award points for possessions, but they deduct points for clangers, poor DE, etc., etc.. As such sMurph was Carlton's highest ranked, Cripps was down in the 70s in several rankings.

Of course for Cripps the 2014 debut season was injury interrupted, just 3 games, so in 2015 he was basically in his 2nd season before everyone had been exposed to him in match ups. In effect that gave Cripps an extra pre-season before his 2nd round of genuine opposition. In 2017, his stats went up but he fell in the rankings.

Which just reinforces what I stated earlier, it's not about stats and the like, it's about experience and effectiveness.

This concept of 2nd year blues is about match ups, players and clubs having experience of opponents, and developing and training for tactics to counter them. It's not instantaneous, it takes time. We call it 2nd year blues because it takes one or two match ups to determine what works, but I suppose you could call it the 25 to 50 blues, and it's another reason why getting players to 100 games quickly is so important.

It's absurd to suggest a player has attracted the same level of scrutiny before they play a game or have an impact, it's not until a player touches up an opponent that the focus really begins.

Clutching at straws LP.  Second year blues is a fan's construct, as is the alternative 25 to 50 games blues. Neither happens in the real world.

Clubs compile dossiers on potential draft and rookie picks.  Those dossiers are passed on to the opposition analysts when players are drafted by other clubs. No AFL player is given a season, or 25 games, without the opposition having tactics in place to curb their influence.  Furthermore, players aren't left to their own devices when coming to terms with their AFL careers.  They are given every support possible, on and off the field.

Consider Jaxon Binns.  He's yet to make his AFL debut but has excelled at VFL level.  Opposition clubs put a lot of work into him last season because he was a standout player.  He will have had the benefits of a year playing in the VFL and training with the AFL team, as well as his first full pre-season, when he does make his debut, but his opponents will know as much about him as any other player in our team.   

When will Jaxon be struck down by the second year blues; 2024, 2025 or after he has played 25 or 50 games? 

It is a nonsense  :

[Thryleon]

Clutching at straws LP.  Second year blues is a fan's construct, as is the alternative 25 to 50 games blues. Neither happens in the real world.

Clubs compile dossiers on potential draft and rookie picks.  Those dossiers are passed on to the opposition analysts when players are drafted by other clubs. No AFL player is given a season, or 25 games, without the opposition having tactics in place to curb their influence.  Furthermore, players aren't left to their own devices when coming to terms with their AFL careers.  They are given every support possible, on and off the field.

Consider Jaxon Binns.  He's yet to make his AFL debut but has excelled at VFL level.  Opposition clubs put a lot of work into him last season because he was a standout player.  He will have had the benefits of a year playing in the VFL and training with the AFL team, as well as his first full pre-season, when he does make his debut, but his opponents will know as much about him as any other player in our team.   

When will Jaxon be struck down by the second year blues; 2024, 2025 or after he has played 25 or 50 games? 

It is a nonsense  :

im not so sure DJC.

I've noticed a trend.  A good first year can sometimes end up in a slight drop in the second season, and vice versa occurs more frequently where players who don't don't have a big first season sometimes have a bigger second year and then suffer from a regression in the 3rd year.

It doesn't happen to all of them, but Corey durdin certainly indicates that. 

Cripps is a unique case.  He broke his leg in his debut season from memory and then came back in year 2 amd went beast mode.  Like walshy. 

[kruddler]

As a first year player you are generally told just to go out and have fun. You get exposed to the footballing landscape at the highest level. You are pumped full of confidence and everything is new and exciting. You are fully fit, full of confidence.

As a second year player, you are pigeon holed a bit more. You are critiqued a bit more. Your confidence takes a hit. You may be playing with niggles that you wouldn't have been picked to play with the year before.

Now clearly this is a generalisation and there is no definite rule that makes it so.

But there are legitimate reasons that make the second year blues more likely than unlikely.

[Lods]

There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here.

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife.

[Baggers]

Expectation: Deep into 2024 finals series. Strong improvement from all younger players (-28yrs) and maintaining of high level from senior players.

Predictions: Nil... lost my crystal ball and Tarot cards.

[pinot]

Just came third so top two should be the expectation and guarantee home finals.

[DJC]

There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here.

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife.

There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?