AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

[ElwoodBlues1]

Geez EB i wish i shared your confidence mate. I do agree with you that our season has been far better then the swans but finals are a different beast and just hoping like hell we can settle quickly and get a buffer early.

A loss as i said earlier will be a fail mark to the season as far as im concerned - maybe that why im so nervous cause everything hinges off this game from my perspective.

Tend to agree Shawny,  just getting to the finals would have been a pass for me at the start of the season but things have changed and I rate us much better than the other teams outside the top four and expect to win this final and will be disappointed if we lost to what i think is an inferior Swans team.

[pinot]

Walsh, Cerra, Cripps, Docherty, Charlie, Weitering, Harry, Saad, Newman, Martin, McGovern.

This is one hell of a team and played like one hell of a team and don't think it could get better from a list management point of view with Salary Cap restrictions. We need to make the talent count. Expecting a tough physical contest and Sydney have guns of their own but if we lose this then I would ask questions as to why. Season will be a pass but unsatisfactory.

[shawny]

I agree. 9 wins in a row, including wins against 3 of the top 4, gives us an excellent springboard for 2024, whatever happens on Friday. This season is definitely a pass IMO.

Can’t agree. This group is well overdue to play finals imo and considering we have a very healthy list we need to get this win.

As we all know improving from season to season is no given and we have used injuries as excuses for several years so when you have a decent run you have to take your chances and if we don’t it’s fail imo.

[Gointocarlton]

Can’t agree. This group is well overdue to play finals imo and considering we have a very healthy list we need to get this win.

As we all know improving from season to season is no given and we have used injuries as excuses for several years so when you have a decent run you have to take your chances and if we don’t it’s fail imo.

IMO there are many factors or elements that need to be in place to play finals and win a flag than just talent:
- Competent coaching Staff
- Experience (age profile and games played together)
- Sustainable and finals proof game plan
- Luck with injuries
- Favourable draw
- Confidence/Belief
Many of these elements have not been in place for this group thus far. I'm not sure its fair to say "This group is well overdue to play finals", perhaps they just weren't "ready" and now they are. The turn around this year following those 6 losses took tremendous maturity, belief and resilience, that never would have happened in years gone by.

[shawny]

IMO there are many factors or elements that need to be in place to play finals and win a flag than just talent:
- Competent coaching Staff
- Experience (age profile and games played together)
- Sustainable and finals proof game plan
- Luck with injuries
- Favourable draw
- Confidence/Belief
Many of these elements have not been in place for this group thus far. I'm not sure its fair to say "This group is well overdue to play finals", perhaps they just weren't "ready" and now they are. The turn around this year following those 6 losses took tremendous maturity, belief and resilience, that never would have happened in years gone by.

I take your points - I guess I’m just tired of underachieving for many years and as this rebuild was the slowest build to play finals any of us would have thought (if we are really being honest) with that in mind having a year where we actually do a tad better then everyone tipped us to do is not asking too much and hence why that’s where im setting the bar at.

If we lose I’m sure when the hurt fades say around Dec I will probably be pleased with the gains made but for now its not how I see it.

[Gointocarlton]

I take your points - I guess I’m just tired of underachieving for many years and as this rebuild was the slowest build to play finals any of us would have thought (if we are really being honest) with that in mind having a year where we actually do a tad better then everyone tipped us to do is not asking too much and hence why that’s where im setting the bar at.

If we lose I’m sure when the hurt fades say around Dec I will probably be pleased with the gains made but for now its not how I see it.

Your post raises another question, why did the rebuild take so long? Meddling boards, CEO's? It seems, from the outside looking in at least, every plan that was laid out was not stuck to due to pathetic leadership. We finally have people at the helm who know what the fark they are doing. I'll lay London to a brick that in the middle of this year, if our CEO was Baldylocks and the Prez was MLG with a board full of Pratts, Mathiesons and their boosters, Vossy would have been gonski after the 6 losses.

[pinot]

Your post raises another question, why did the rebuild take so long? Meddling boards, CEO's? It seems, from the outside looking in at least, every plan that was laid out was not stuck to due to pathetic leadership. We finally have people at the helm who know what the fark they are doing. I'll lay London to a brick that in the middle of this year, if our CEO was Baldylocks and the Prez was MLG with a board full of Pratts, Mathiesons and their boosters, Vossy would have been gonski after the 6 losses.

When Teague took over the team during Covid the players were young. 2015 class was 22 years old. It's just that the rebuild began at ground zero with a scorched earth policy. Letting Tuohy go for Marchy was a disaster. Then past five years we consistently had 12-15 players on injury list that didn't really help a young team. McGovern, Martin, Williams have hardly played

[kruddler]

Letting Tuohy go for Marchy was a disaster.

This is incorrect.

There are deals attached to deals attached to deals, but this isn't correct.

We traded Tuohy+ 2nd rounder for Smedts, future 1st and a late pick (Fun fact - geelong used that pick on Lachie Fogarty)
That future first was traded again (with some later picks), for Marchbank+Pickett and a 2nd rounder.

We swapped that pick with dogs for other picks. We swapped those picks to adelaide for Gibbs and 2 first rounders.

So....there was about 12 picks that ended up being involved in that initial trade of Tuohy.

[Lods]

Your post raises another question, why did the rebuild take so long? Meddling boards, CEO's? It seems, from the outside looking in at least, every plan that was laid out was not stuck to due to pathetic leadership. We finally have people at the helm who know what the fark they are doing. I'll lay London to a brick that in the middle of this year, if our CEO was Baldylocks and the Prez was MLG with a board full of Pratts, Mathiesons and their boosters, Vossy would have been gonski after the 6 losses.

Our rebuild blurprint is certainly something it's doubtful other clubs will follow.
Why did it take so long to be back playing finals?....

We cut too deep initially rather than staggering some of those departures (SOS said as much)
We made some poor choices with trades and selections, and hand in hand with that....
Our development of some young players was also poor.
We had some significant long term injuries and illnesses. (Curnow, Docherty and others)

All of that put pressure on coaches because of the lack of progress...and that resulted in change and another adjustment which then had a delaying effect on the progress.

The reality though is we don't know if persisting with Bolton or Teague would have had us in finals sooner ...or not at all.
Once you sack them that becomes a 'maybe, who knows'

Luck plays a huge part, and being in the right place at the right time with the right group of players is sometimes just about luck and the stars aligning.

[Thryleon]

The rebuild took too long for a many reasons, but given the relative talent of the list, we needed a bit of luck.

Ultimately the biggest issue we had during the Ratten years, was that we had a heavy reliance on too few, and the kids didnt kick on, and the mature agers didnt really pan out either.

Good teams don't rely on too few to be competitive, they rely on a few to be good.  We were the opposite.  The other thing that our rebuild struggled with, was key position players.  We had a makeshift forwardline and backline with not enough options in both ends, which meant we struggled in those areas.

We also had a mini exodus of setting standards to the playing group, where we were forced into a situation where we sacked players for non football reasons.  These proved to be some of our better performers at the time, but its possible that this set the scene for us to transform our groups mentality to the point where we were then able to start a rebuild properly, as opposed to the half pregnant approach we did under Pagan, Ratten and then Malthouse.  Bolton I think was the coach that got the rawest deal.  He was given a list in transition, and then had to cope with heavy changes to the list year in year out.

All in all its as simple as this.  Our draft crop of 2015, have played more games together on the list in season 2023, than they had prior to this season, which is no ones fault but dumb luck.