AFL Elimination Final 1 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Sydney

[BluePhantom]

I'd be happy with a finals win and call that progression and tick for Voss and the team but Id be lying if I said I wasnt looking forward to even more success and winning the following week as well vs Melb or the Pies.

Well, didn't we just beat them both?

[shawny]

I'm also of the opinion that a flag this year may be a bridge too far. But if we don't win it, the least we can do is make sure the other sides we play earn it.
Show the same effort we've shown in the second half of the season and go down fighting...and I'll be reasonably happy with the year.

Nah not me. This group is well and truly overdue and with the talent on the park at the moment we just have to win this first final. We should have made the finals last year and considering the much better run this year on the injury front its a win and only a win thats a pass for me. 

After that i will consider it a bonus but making the finals and losing to a team that if it wasn't for 2 freaky very very lucky games would have finished 10th is another wasted year IMO

[kruddler]

Dogs won it from 7th.....we are a better side than they were.

Baby bombers came from nowhere to ruin our party in 1993.

Hawks stole one in 2008 well before they were expecting.


Simple question - Why not us?

[ElwoodBlues1]

Well, didn't we just beat them both?

We did but finals are different and both have a few key players back which makes them better so more of a challenge.

[pinot]

We have an A grader on every line need to make it count.

[Lods]

Simple question - Why not us?

Of course it's possible.
But
Four teams above us can afford a slip.
We can't.
The home town advantage and interstate travel comes into play.
It's very likely those top four sides have primed themselves to peak at this time so we'll be striking them at their best.
For us to win it all, it will take some effort.
It's nice to have faith and confidence...but it will take a supreme effort and lot of luck.

[kruddler]

Of course it's possible.
But
Four teams above us can afford a slip.
We can't.
The home town advantage and interstate travel comes into play.
It's very likely those top four sides have primed themselves to peak at this time so we'll be striking them at their best.
For us to win it all, it will take some effort.
It's nice to have faith and confidence...but it will take a supreme effort and lot of luck.

4 teams above us CAN afford a slip.....but only 1....and only in the first week where they each will play a tougher opponent than us.
We just had 'our slip'....and won't need another one.

You could argue that finishing 5th if the best place to finish because you play the weakest opponent.
The top 4 will have 2 winners and 2 losers......but at what cost to both?
The 2 winners get a week off, but they have a week off now. So its 1 game in 3 weeks prior to the prelim. That can mess with anyones routine and form.
The 2 losers get home field advantage in week 2, sure, but they will probably be carrying more niggles and doubts than their opponents who are coming off a win.

The top 4 are not THAT much better than we are.
The top 4 are more injured than we are.
The top 4 are not as in form as we are.
The top 4 are beatable.

[kruddler]

Just did a breakdown of each finalist vs top 4 and vs top 8 (which includes top 4) and added up the total games played vs finalists.
Makes for some interesting reading and some interesting revelations

Team  : vs4 : vs8 : vs finalists
Pies    : 2-3 : 6-4 : 10 games
Lions  : 3-2 : 8-2 : 10 games
Port  : 2-2 : 5-3 : 8 games
Dees  : 2-2 : 6-4 : 10 games
Blues : 3-3 : 5-6 : 11 games
Saints: 0-5 : 3-6 : 9 games
Giants: 1-3 : 3-6 : 9 games
Swans : 0-5 : 2-7 : 9 games

This shows us a few things...
1. We have probably had the hardest fixture with playing top 8 sides more than any other finalist
2. We have probably had the hardest fixture with playing top 4 sides more than any other finalist
3. We can hold our own against the best in the game - the top 4 (3-3)
4: Whereas 6-8 have won 1** from 14 attempts vs top 4.

Another fact not represented in those numbers is that the Lions are undefeated at home all year. They would need to lose at least 1 to not make the grand final. Ideally lose week 1 against Port so we wouldn't meet them until the GF should we both make it. If they win week 1, and we win weeks 1+2, we'd play them in a prelim in Brisbane.


**fwiw the 1 was GWS vs Dees
Dees 5.15-45
Giants 7.5-47
....which was more about good luck rather than good fortune.

[Mantis]

The fact we have major scalps above us and beaten them with just as many missing players, there is a worry as to winning against us. How to double team our tall towers. Hence we look to open up the forward 50m with other options on a lead. Get our mids to kick for goal on the run or finding new smaller targets. Looking for opportunities they can’t defend so easily by double and triple teaming our big targets. Just became less predictable. No bombing it into the forward 50m unless the foot soldiers are at the drop to clean up the mess and either score with snap shots or lock the ball in. Creating another stoppage. Avoid rebounds out of deference by bombing the ball in without a plan. I don’t see us losing this first finals game. Not if we bring the best intensity and pressure from the first bounce. We should win this game unless the guys without the experience of finals football choke. They just have to treat this as another game. Sydney are a good unit. Not good enough to go all the way or to beat us after a loss. We are also coming off a loss. Kill their dominant mids and they won’t be able to get scoreboard opportunities. I rate our mids slightly above theirs. Even though the All Australian results might say different. My only issue is with our small forwards.  Great on a good day. Terrible if not awake to some hard work. They shouldn’t beat us. Not in my opinion. If they do it shouldn’t be a humiliation. I won’t be angry either way. I am glad we get the experience the players need.

[Thryleon]

Lets beat sydney first and worry about what comes next.

We'll know who we face if we win before the bounce which psychologically might make it harder but our equation is simple enough.

Win week 1 and we are back at the G in week 2.

After that, is irrelevant until the week of the match.