AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

[Lods]

We've gone too many changes we won't win IMHO.

A lot depends on the attitude and 'needs' of the opposition

[Baggers]

We've gone too many changes we won't win IMHO.

Over the past two and a bit months we've had plenty of changes and loss of key personnel during games and still found a way to win.

I think it's more about the collective than individuals, and with everyone on the same page and with the same hunting attitude/doing his job, our team is very difficult to beat.

In regard to Pitto being an emergency I suspect we believe we may have been a bit too top heavy last outing. Perhaps TDK will ruck most, if not all day, from the forward fifty arc to defense with H taking forward line rucking duties.

[Thryleon]

Go through the archives and tell me the last time a squad had 5 changes to their 22 and won the match.  It ruins comtinuity and momentum and you can bet the farm on that!

Ive tipped against it all season and won.

[DJC]

That is essentially a clearance....usually.

I can check those stats, but its not 100% accurate as a player may win a clearance despite not being the ruck. Probably applies to Jack more than the others as he is more likely to be at a clearance while not rucking.....but still wouldn't be a regular thing.

These are career totals to get a better idea (bigger numbers, more accurate )
Likelyhood a player will get a clearance from RC...
4.3% - Young
5.5% - Pittonet
5.8% - TDK
6.5% - Harry
17.0% - Jack

To get a more complete picture, either win the ruck OR get the clearance....
HTA + Clearance % from RC.....
11.3% - Harry
12.4% - Young
16.6% - TDK
20.1% - Pittonet
25.8% - Jack

Again, not as accurate as the pure ruck contests because you can attend a contest NOT as the ruck. You can technically get a hitout to advantage and also a clearance if they handball it back to you....although this is uncommon for rucks as we know.
But i think its pretty clear that the reason i've been pushing the Jack barrow as the 2nd ruck option is for team balance around the ground, including at stoppages.
1 out of 4 contests he attends, he gets a clear advantage from.
1 in 5 from Pittonet is a lot more accurate because he doesn't attend a stoppage unless he is rucking.....and similar for the others.

Regardless of the specifics of the numbers, its clear Harry is far from our best option as a ruck and backup ruck.

I suspect the experiment may work once, or even twice in the right circumstances. I can't seeing it being a flag winning move though.

It may be counted as a clearance if the player gets a disposal.    A "ruck hardball get" is a specific category used by Champion Data.  Midway through last season Tom Hawkins had 20 "ruck hardball gets", something like twice as many as the next best.

I noticed when Jack took clean possession from a ruck contest and kicked a goal (when he injured his knee) that he wasn't credited with a hitout to advantage but was given a contested possession.  I imagine that if you drilled down further, there'd be a "ruck hardball get".

I know that Harry has got several this season and Charlie has at least one.

I will be expecting Harry to go for clean possessions whenever he can.

[LP]

I noticed when Jack took clean possession from a ruck contest and kicked a goal (when he injured his knee) that he wasn't credited with a hitout to advantage but was given a contested possession.  I imagine that if you drilled down further, there'd be a "ruck hardball get".

Same as Cripps, given contested possession for taking it out of the ruck in F50.

It's another example of somewhat bogus reporting of stats, because the ruck can defeat his opponent hands down in F50 take the ball cleanly, and it just gets reported as Contested Possession or Score Assist.

[pinot]

Melbourne is having the same problem both Grundy and Gawn cant play in the same team as can't play forward.
Luckily we are paying Pittonet as much as a fourth round pick should get paid so we can carry him.

[LP]

Subject to further results, there will be more changes you can almost guarantee it.

[Thryleon]

If the bulldogs dont win, our game tomorrow becomes the equivalent as a training run.

[LoveNavy]

If the bulldogs dont win, our game tomorrow becomes the equivalent as a training run.

So... if Cats beat Dogs, we play GWS wk1 of finals?
At home?

[pinot]

If the bulldogs dont win, our game tomorrow becomes the equivalent as a training run.

Saints lost so home elimination final is guaranteed.