AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

[pinot]

Last chance to fine tune some things and Harry playing Forward/Ruck is worth a try.
Charlie is superstardom-like and only needs a Key defender dragged away from his zone. Both Harry and TDK can do that.
Harry is obviously better forward than TDK and can do damage himself on his own right but rucking forward of centre all game is worth a shot..

[Sub-Zero]

Very true, but is it worse than Harry rucking coming back from a knee?

It might be debut time for somebody!

Debut for Hudson (or the other Harry I should also say)? It would be very surprising. Keefe is their second ruckman. Hit-outs will definitely be going their way. Our likely second ruck still appears to be Harry. But it seems doubtful he will leap into centre bounce contests. He'll probably stay on the ground and use his arm, open or tucked in and push off the opposing player, when it's his turn to go, while TDK takes some minutes on the bench.

[laj]

Providing a contest might be a stretch for Harry, he is very much the gentle giant and gets shoved out the way fairly easily by smaller players. To be honest Id have more faith in the undersized McGovern being able to give us a bit more around the ground to compensate. Knowing our luck too Harry will do himself an injury and my preference is Harry doesnt ruck at all and I might have brought in Young to provide help in that area.

Tap ruck department he might struggle, not that i'm worried about that. Around the ground though he'll do very well.

[kruddler]

Check out Harry’s HTA% ?

Seriously though, his forward 50 ruckwork was quite good before his injury. I think that he must have been working with Matty K.

Expect him to take possession whenever he can.

For those playing at home...
Chance of a hitout to advantage from a ruck contest (RC-HTA%)
4.5% - C. Curnow
4.8% - McKay
8.1% - Young
8.6% - Silvagni
10.9% - TDK
14.5% - Pittonet

McGovern has only ever attended 7 ruck contests in his career, and never got a hitout to advantage.

[LP]

McGovern has only ever attended 7 ruck contests in his career, and never got a hitout to advantage.

I suspect that says more about the stat system than Gov's career, anyone who watched him stuffed into the 2nd ruck role back in his Crows days can attest to that! ;D

Also, a bit like Liam Jones years back, Gov spent a number of games as 2nd ruck in the VFL, he was more than reasonable at it. Actually, I think at VFL level both Jones and McGovern made a better fist of fill-in rucking than either Young to Silvagni have so far.

But that's not to say they are my first preference, I'd rather run a Lemmey or O'Keefe as newbie than ruck either of Harry or McGovern, and I note Motlop is an out now, by 6pm tomorrow you might find it's a late out epidemic.

I'm not going the early Crow, but I'm gaining Nostradamus like confidence as each minutes passes to game time ................. not that this was hard to predict!

[kruddler]

I suspect that says more about the stat system than Gov's career, anyone who watched him stuffed into the 2nd ruck role back in his Crows days can attest to that! ;D

Take it up with the stats guys. Has a total of 0 hitouts while with the crows, so clearly no hitouts to advantage.
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/...overn.html

[kruddler]

Motlop is a late out - Illness
C. Durdin comes in.

[Gointocarlton]

Something tells me this won't be the last change before the bounce.

[LP]

Take it up with the stats guys. Has a total of 0 hitouts while with the crows, so clearly no hitouts to advantage.
https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/...overn.html

Don't care what the stats say, there was a period while he was at the Crows were they were crippled for rucks and they basically rotated a bunch of the KPPs through the ruck role including Mitch and he did quite well, in particular he had that mobility and quick recovery from the tap contest to get influential 2nd efforts.

Gov has those Go-Go-Gadget arms, with a good leap, let's him compete against far taller opponents. But even so I think he's too valuable for the finals to risk in the ruck, but like I said not my preference, in fact neither he or Harry is my preference. Play O'Keefe or Lemmey.

If we are going to sacrifice one or the other it's probably got to be Gov drawing the short straw ahead of Harry. A finals campaign could be dead in the water if we go forward with Charlie as a solo F50 target, but in D50 we have Kemp, Young, Durdin to roll alongside Weiters to help cover for Gov if he goes missing.

[laj]

Motlop is a late out - Illness
C. Durdin comes in.

My PT client went to Qld last week, got sick there then on the plane back as seated amongst all the Carlton players. Hope it is just co-incidence.