AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

[NudeNut]

My other beef last night was why the MC dropped Kemp and didn't even make him sub, while I love Ed, he is not the future. As for dropping Kemp, if I had to choose between Kemp and McGovern, I'd choose Kemp every time. McGovern doesn't look interested and makes mistakes every time he goes near the ball, has been like that all year.

[kruddler]

We have handed the opposition bar that WAFL side  an easy win every week since we have gone with 1 ruck.

Causation and Correlation.

You really need to look into that.
Let me expand so you get the point....

Week 1 - 1 ruck (TDK) - Draw (Tigers - 13th)
Week 6 - 1 ruck (Pitto) - Loss (St. Kilda - 5th)
Week 7 - 1 ruck (Pitto) - Win (West Coast - 17th)
Week 8 - 1 ruck (Pitto) - Loss (Brisbane - 3rd)
Week 9 - 1 ruck (Pitto) - Loss (Bulldogs - 6th)

Games against top 6 - 0-3
Games against middle 6 - 0-0-1
Games against bottom 6 - 1-0

Games with 2 rucks
Week 2 - 2 rucks - Win - (Geelong - 7th)
Week 3 - 2 rucks - Win - (GWS - 15th)
Week 4 - 2 rucks - Win - (NM - 16th)
Week 5 - 2 rucks - Loss (Adelaide - 8th)

Games against top 6 - 0-0
Games against middle 6 - 1-1
Games against bottom 6 - 2-0

TOTAL regardless of how many rucks we play....
Games against top 6 - 0-3
Games against middle 6 - 1-1-1
Games against bottom 6 - 3-0

Seems ladder position is all that matters, NOT the amount of rucks we play.
Ladder position is the cause of the result.
Rucks played happens to correlate with the result....ie coincidence.

As that little exercise shows. We are not as good as the top 6, clearly better than the bottom 6, and exactly even with the middle 6.
Rucks numbers are irrelevent.

[LoveNavy]

So why didn't our coach employ the same 101 principle and address the issue in-match ??

We have the question. Not sure we have the answer.

[Thryleon]

My other beef last night was why the MC dropped Kemp and didn't even make him sub, while I love Ed, he is not the future. As for dropping Kemp, if I had to choose between Kemp and McGovern, I'd choose Kemp every time. McGovern doesn't look interested and makes mistakes every time he goes near the ball, has been like that all year.

mcgovern is way better than you give him credit for.

Kemp should have been the sub, but I would have been swinging McGovern forward because, our forward line is struggling and we need to start coming up with something out of the box and trying to win games.

[rocky]

Easy you say.
You've just dropped Ed and Hollands, our best 2 runners and replaced them with KPP's.
Congratulations, you've just handed the opposition an easy win.
If you wanna bring in 2 talls....you really should look at dropping 2 talls.

Pfffft, whatever Krud. Like you'd ever concede anything. You asked a question I responded to. As always it's my opinion.
Like moves I've suggested will make a difference to the outcome on Sunday. We'll lose and lose badly whatever we do... IMO
1. I agree Ed is one of our best runners (be it a very SLOW one) but as I stated he is being played out of position. They gave him a good role against StKilda which was working but then blew it.
2. You conveniently jumped on the Hollands suggestion (4th choice), so I guess your happy for both Durdin and Motlop to continue on.
3. Love the kid Hollands but he needs a rest.
4. Why drop 2 talls?  we've had the smalls going all year for little return.

By the way I'm surprised you've haven't started on the "lets get rid of Cripps while he still has currency" line you were pumping to the faithful a couple of years ago. I guess TDK is the new target.
Did you ever concede you were w.. w... w.. w.. wrong about that by the way, Fonzie?

[Vivs]

Can't play Kennedy, Cera and Hewitt in the same team together. Our midfield becomes monotone, lacking the breakaway to spread and win clearances. Great for winning contested ball. Not so good for the kick mark style that we attempt, often with poor results.
Hence, why Docherty and Saad have to push up to provide run, further exposing the backline if possession is lost. Weitering has to play deeper, preventing his long kicking being deployed.

So with a plodding midfield, ball movement slows, with hurried and high forward entries.

Voss has a massive challenge, for without some more pace through the middle we can't compete against the top sides. But Martin is always injured, as is Cunningham and Dow, O'Brien have both been a bust.

TDK trade must be done for some pace.

[kruddler]

Pfffft, whatever Krud. Like you'd ever concede anything. You asked a question I responded to. As always it's my opinion.
Like moves I've suggested will make a difference to the outcome on Sunday. We'll lose and lose badly whatever we do... IMO
1. I agree Ed is one of our best runners (be it a very SLOW one) but as I stated he is being played out of position. They gave him a good role against StKilda which was working but then blew it.
2. You conveniently jumped on the Hollands suggestion (4th choice), so I guess your happy for both Durdin and Motlop to continue on.
3. Love the kid Hollands but he needs a rest.
4. Why drop 2 talls?  we've had the smalls going all year for little return.

By the way I'm surprised you've haven't started on the "lets get rid of Cripps while he still has currency" line you were pumping to the faithful a couple of years ago. I guess TDK is the new target.
Did you ever concede you were w.. w... w.. w.. wrong about that by the way, Fonzie?

re Cripps....
Paraphrasing for emphasis. Wasn't quite that simple, but you know that.

The reason i went for Hollands is because he is 'taller' than the other 2, who are clearly 'small forwards'.
If you wanna swap them out, do it....just makes us taller again.
We can be the land of giants.

I'm happy to drop Ed. Got no issues there.
Not opposed to giving Hollands a rest either.

The point i am making, and have made all year (Yes, TDK plays a role here) is because for TEAM BALANCE we are too tall with a 2nd ruck. We are borderline too tall with the team we have out there now.

Jack, Charlie and Harry up forward.
Weiters, Young and McGovern down back.
Pitto in the middle.
Name me a taller team than that going around?

Some want to add to that by including TDK and Kemp and losing some mids??? Ludicrous.

My whole beef with TDK is not actually with TDK....its with team balance.
If you want to drop Harry for TDK, now is the time.
If you want to drop Young for Kemp, now is the time.

Do that and you don't upset team balance.
You lose 2 out of form players and replace them with equivalent types. I've got no problem with that. Not exactly what i would do, but at least it makes sense.

But no.
People want to drop midfielders (or small forwards) instead.....and THAT makes no sense.
We are already tiring late in games.
We are already slow and chasing tail most of the games.
Doing that will exacerbate the problem not fix anything.

What i would do in our current predicament?

1. Drop Harry, i'm sure he is carrying something. Give him a week off.
2. Move Mitch forward to play 3rd tall.
3. Bring in Kemp to cover Mitch down back.
4. Move Kennedy forward and play him and Jack from the square, with Charlie up at CHF.
5. Rotate Kennedy into the middle and put Cripps from the square if/when required.
6. Drop at least one (probably 2) of Curnow/Cincotta/Hollands and bring in Fisher/Martin/Cuningham (whoever is deemed fittest and in best form) for some more pace through the middle/half back.

End result is this.
Our forwardline is smaller (but not faster) with Kennedy and Silvagni tag-teaming the FF role. Charlie and McGovern spend time up the ground as leading options.
This gives the opposition headaches in where they play their tall defenders. Do they play them on Charlie and Gov and get forced up the ground away from goals?
Or
Do the play them on Jack and Kennedy and get beaten when the ball hits the ground.

Our backline doesn't suffer with Kemp -> McGovern.
Our forwardline starts to give the opposition headaches for different reasons....not least of which is they won't see it coming.
Our midfield gets a little bit faster as a result of Kennedy playing forward (and swapping with Cripps) but don't lose options through there. Adding Fisher/Martin/Cuningham adds speed and outside run.

[madbluboy]

The results from 2022 and 2023 show our team wins more when we play both rucks. That's the bottom line.

[Macca37]

Kruddler, if I follow your line of reasoning correctly in your points 1 to 5, for the sake of team balance you do not see a need to drop any of our small forwards, yet it is highly questionable that either Durdin or Motlop deserve a place in the team on current form. 

As to point 6, from accounts of Martin's poor form on the weekend and Cuningham still being an unknown quantity, it would mean that Fisher is the last man standing - more of the same old, same old.

Your post really shows the trouble we are in with such a poor list which is also not helped by two or three players permanently injured.

[kruddler]

Kruddler, if I follow your line of reasoning correctly in your points 1 to 5, for the sake of team balance you do not see a need to drop any of our small forwards, yet it is highly questionable that either Durdin or Motlop deserve a place in the team on current form. 

As to point 6, from accounts of Martin's poor form on the weekend and Cuningham still being an unknown quantity, it would mean that Fisher is the last man standing - more of the same old, same old.

Your post really shows the trouble we are in with such a poor list which is also not helped by two or three players permanently injured.

I don't think we have a poor list exactly.
I think we might have an unbalanced list....at least with injuries being the way they are.

If you pick your best players, from 1 to 22 (or 23) and then try and put them in positions you will get a different team than if you pick your 'best 22' (or 23).
The latter is required to play games.
The former is just a measure of talent.

We need to play games and win games, that's why we need to pick a side that is capable of doing so. If that means we can't play a 2nd ruckman, or we are forced to drop a Coleman medallist, then that's what we need to do.

Re small forwards...
Would you prefer we kept honey in? He was worse. Durdin and Motlop are not b AA forwards but they are the best we have,  so not sure what other options we have.