China

[ElwoodBlues1]

You still haven’t explained how you think Australia can tame China. Everybody would wish the CCP away if we could and I would wish that just as much as you. Neo-con war hawks don’t have any monopoly on that score. But how do we turn wishes into reality? Will thoughts and prayers work?

NATO tamed Russia by playing the same cold war games and having military strength, Putin has chanced his luck with a non NATO country that he thought was an easy target. I am not suggesting we go and try and square up with China man for man, tank for tank, rocket for rocket because for obvious reasons thats a race we cant win. I am saying just have enough of an arsenal to make life tough for any aspiring country wanting to bully us and make it not worth the effort of taunting or displaying threatening behavior with acts like we have seen.
Our main way of hurting China is economically by finding new trading partners and getting off the Chinese teat  with regards a high dependence on them buying iron ore, coal etc etc and other commodities we do well and have the best quality.
The Chinese people are good people who work hard and as we have seen integrate into other countries well but the leadership of China has one thing in mind and thats domination of their region and that wont diminish so imho we will have to live in a cold war balancing act state but not be one of the weak countries that leaves itself vulnerable.
You look at Israel and while I dont agree with everything Israel does you have to acknowledge how they exist and deal with a lot of hostile neighbors and middle east issues. No one messes with Israel because those other countries know whats coming back and how ready they are to stand up for themselves. Sure they are backed by the USA with weapons etc but they are a force in their own right and while I dont want Aus becoming a nation with national service and everyone trained in how to use a gun etc I think we can learn a bit from the likes of Israel and Ukraine how to go about shoring up our country as a deterrent...not as an aggressor but with the idea you mess with us and its going to cost you economically and in battle if you push us to the extreme.
Its going to cost money, make any Government who leans that way unpopular but if we want to protect our way of life we need to have another plan not just the diplomatic route.

[Mav]

Surely the last decade of conservative rule has left us with an impressive military. Or did it just concentrate on car parks and small government?

[ElwoodBlues1]

Surely the last decade of conservative rule has left us with an impressive military. Or did it just concentrate on car parks and small government?

More needs to be spent to modernize our military in the areas where we have early warning and better air coverage imo. Romania a NATO country had two missiles which were never identified either Russian or misfired Ukranian that entered their airspace and we're not detected until they were well into the country.
Their old Jets couldnt be scrambled in time and the missiles luckily didn't do any damage. We don't want similar here, defense hasn't been a priority for a long while on the basis that the USA will hold our hand and have our back.
Taiwan will be the test if the USA can be relied upon but I'd rather we show some more initiative and prepare early.

[Mav]

So, because the LNP thought they were protected by the US so all they had to do was talk tough, it falls to Labor to do all the hard work and find the money? I'm thinking this is a bit like the Libs in Victoria committing $50b to the East-West Link on the eve of an election and imposing penalties for cancellation in the hope it would stuff up Labor's priorities.

We've recently discovered that a sharp increase in gas prices that ordinarily should have been revealed on 1 May was mysteriously delayed until after the election and just as mysteriously the RBA has just realised it needs to make serial interest rate rises. And now, without saying flatly that the LNP dropped the ball, you say that Labor needs to massively increase military expenditure to such a point it will become unpopular. Pardon me if I'm a bit cynical about your viewpoint that diplomacy is useless and a massive military buildup is the only way.

[Thryleon]

Maybe I should just insinuate he’d bullied someone to death. That sort of despicable behaviour doesn’t seem to be off limits, does it Thry?

I dont think thats any better.


You might want to leave that argument with whom you were having it, because fundamentally you don't know how correct or incorrect it is, and irrespective of what you believe about a person, often the way you treat someone reflects more on you than it does them.

[ElwoodBlues1]

So, because the LNP thought they were protected by the US so all they had to do was talk tough, it falls to Labor to do all the hard work and find the money? I'm thinking this is a bit like the Libs in Victoria committing $50b to the East-West Link on the eve of an election and imposing penalties for cancellation in the hope it would stuff up Labor's priorities.

We've recently discovered that a sharp increase in gas prices that ordinarily should have been revealed on 1 May was mysteriously delayed until after the election and just as mysteriously the RBA has just realised it needs to make serial interest rate rises. And now, without saying flatly that the LNP dropped the ball, you say that Labor needs to massively increase military expenditure to such a point it will become unpopular. Pardon me if I'm a bit cynical about your viewpoint that diplomacy is useless and a massive military buildup is the only way.

Everyone knew about the RBA rises well out from the election, inflation was running at 8% in the USA and is about 5% here, the RBA target about 2-3% inflation. The previous interest rate rise was too low as the RBA didnt want to go hard, there will be more rises as there will in the USA where we take our lead from. The reality is people who have over borrowed will be in trouble but low interest rates were never a given to stay that way even though Phil Lowe promised no hikes till 2024.
Australia is in for a tough time like a lot of countries but the Ukraine War, China Lockdown and inflation are the reasons...no one is blaming the Labor Government and the RBA are only doing their job.
Gas prices are due to the hike in global prices, bad timing for labor but not exactly a secret that energy prices are up around the world, no one is blaming Labor again, fossil fuel prices are up...supply and demand. Less reliance on fossil fuel energy needed...maybe time to think nuclear but someone needs to pay for the transmission line upgrades as the Australian system is falling apart, that means foreign investment and your Chinese friends owning more of our Electrical Suppliers/Distributors but you wouldnt mind that I guess?
Dan Andrews is your expert on how to blow money on infrastructure capital expenditure, think he holds the record for so many overblown budgets on infrastructure projects in Victoria. Dan isnt good with figures though and has a problem with working out who signs off on contracts and where the money went so maybe dont waste your time...

[Mav]

Don't military contracts have a bit of a history of blowing out? After all, wasn't that the LNP's justification for cancelling the contract for the French subs, even though the defence department officials in charge of it stated that the contract was within expectations? And we ended up paying out $5b to the French for nothing in return. And let's not even mention the F-35 deal ... Oh, what the hell, let's mention it:

Australia spent billions on jet fighters off the plan. Now, we’re having trouble even flying them, The Conversation.

Continuous upgrades at tremendous cost
...
Most of Australia’s fleet is planned to be upgraded to be broadly similar to the US fleet, although this will cost even more money. It may seem strange to have to pay extra to upgrade a brand new aircraft on delivery, but that’s not the end of the problems. There is another complication.

Australia’s latest F-35s (as well as the upgraded older ones) use the Block 3F software, a digital operating system designed by Lockheed Martin. It is proving to be just as costly to keep updated as the jets themselves.

Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the US Air Force’s deputy chief of staff, has serious concerns about the outdated software, saying last year, "the block that is coming off the line right now is not a block that I feel good about going up against China and Russia".

He noted recent war games focused on the prospect of defending Taiwan from Chinese air attack showed "Every [F-35] that rolls off the line today is a fighter that we wouldn’t even bother putting into these scenarios."

This means Australia’s F-35s appear not to be as good as the potential opposition. It seems Australia is paying to lose the air combat battle.

The only solution: another upgrade
So, what is the solution to these seemingly intractable and eye-wateringly expensive problems?

Lockheed Martin is advocating a major operating system software upgrade: the Block 4. It might not be surprising to hear this is now running years late, with delivery expected in 2027 or later. It is also significantly over budget.

In a small piece of good news, the last nine F-35 aircraft Australia will get off the production line next year, and may be partly Block 4 compatible. Hinote thinks these F-35s might be capable of fighting against first-rate adversaries.

The bad news is the full Block 4 upgrade now requires a major engine upgrade or even a new engine. So, this means Australia’s current F-35 fleet might not be able to use all the Block 4 software until after 2030 – and at a substantial cost.

Buying another hugely expensive upgrade for a brand new fighter is actually the cheap way out. The US Air Force’s focus is already shifting to the Block 4 upgraded aircraft. Countries like ours with older F-35s will be left to fend for ourselves if we don’t embrace the new technology, as well.

But the costs do keeping going up, and the problems with these F-35 jets haven’t seemed to stop. It’s the price of buying off the plan, which anyone who’s bought a house or apartment would surely know.

Why would you want Labor pouring infinite amounts of money into defence procurement when apparently Labor has difficulty preventing blowouts?

[Macca37]

Wouldn't it be good if previous federal governments had clearly identified what our defence needs are, the equipment needed to fulfil those needs, the time frames for its supply, the expenditure needed and how it will be paid for.

Instead, senior Defence personnel cannot agree on whether we need to prepare for a long-range war, such as supporting the USA in defending Taiwan if it is attacked by China, or prepare for our own defence and that of  nearby neighbours.

I watched an interview a few days ago where one of our most senior navy commanders would not have a bar of ordering an interim sub before the delivery of the first nuclear sub somewhere in the 2040s.  Given the rapidly changing global situation I thought he was delusional.

Despite numerous White Papers over several decades identifying what Australia should do for its own protection, we have managed to waste billions of dollars on equipment not fit for purpose.

With no clear path forward we are virtually defenceless.  China could collapse our economy within a matter of a few weeks without firing a shot in anger.  We are supposed to have a minimum 90 day oil reserve but only a few days of that reserve is in Australia at any time: the rest is held in the USA because it is cheaper to store there!

Just the threat of sinking oil tankers crossing the Pacific to Australia would cause them to be uninsurable and there goes our oil reserve.

I just see more years ahead where the powers that be will continue to dither and leave us completely unprepared to defend ourselves.

[Thryleon]

Federal governments.  I spit in their general direction.

They've been too busy knifing each other over whos the leader in the last 15 years to make a concerted effort to do anything properly.  Most of them have wasted a golden opportunity to lead us in the boom times by throwing money away like it was confetti on both sides of the political spectrum.

This forum is a perfect example of what's wrong.  You criticise one, the comeback is often about the other, which serves only to deflect rather than learn how to do it better.

I hated John Howard but he was arguably the last proper leader we've had.  The rest have had the title without the stones to actually lead.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Wouldn't it be good if previous federal governments had clearly identified what our defence needs are, the equipment needed to fulfil those needs, the time frames for its supply, the expenditure needed and how it will be paid for.

Instead, senior Defence personnel cannot agree on whether we need to prepare for a long-range war, such as supporting the USA in defending Taiwan if it is attacked by China, or prepare for our own defence and that of  nearby neighbours.

I watched an interview a few days ago where one of our most senior navy commanders would not have a bar of ordering an interim sub before the delivery of the first nuclear sub somewhere in the 2040s.  Given the rapidly changing global situation I thought he was delusional.

Despite numerous White Papers over several decades identifying what Australia should do for its own protection, we have managed to waste billions of dollars on equipment not fit for purpose.

With no clear path forward we are virtually defenceless.  China could collapse our economy within a matter of a few weeks without firing a shot in anger.  We are supposed to have a minimum 90 day oil reserve but only a few days of that reserve is in Australia at any time: the rest is held in the USA because it is cheaper to store there!

Just the threat of sinking oil tankers crossing the Pacific to Australia would cause them to be uninsurable and there goes our oil reserve.

I just see more years ahead where the powers that be will continue to dither and leave us completely unprepared to defend ourselves.

Dont disagree, I dont rate the Morrison years as great for defense planning and my expectations of Labor are similar so I expect the same reliance on the USA and as a standalone nation we are as you say defenceless.
Also agree we have wasted money on poor choice equipment, the Fench sub deal as Mav suggests and its been a balls up because most including the public think it doesnt matter because our friends in the USA will come to our rescue anyway.

re: Mavs question on blowouts, no I dont expect Labor to increase defense spending and my budget blowout issues are with the Victorian State Government. I didnt vote for either major party so I'm not sitting in judgement on Albo and crew yet  who have only been in Government 5 minutes and who probably dont see it as a priority and will pursue the diplomatic route as their form of defense. Australia has a massive national debt due to Covid and will also have issues retaining its AAA credit rating so I dont think anyone expects money to be plucked out of thin air for extra defense spending.