General Discussions

[LP]

The modern Howitzers and other self-propelled gun platforms that are not just ballistic will change the conflict, Russia will have to get more of it's elite airforce involved or revert to troops on the ground. These laser guided self-propelled weapons can take out tanks and other fortifications from ranges at least 30km away, with extended range ammo they can be 60km away. I read somewhere a while back the latest variants can fire 4 rounds a minute all individually targeted, travel at 90kph and can be firing within 90s of stopping.

Just to give you an idea of what a range of 30km to 60km means, out in the middle of nowhere like the Nullarbor Plain your visible horizon standing at an eye height of 1.8m is about 5km!

[Baggers]

Are you sure thats what putin was thinking? According to his quoted generals, yes. Along with military strategists who've served in war zones. Russians who've spoke of what Putin is thinking are unanimous in their opinion that he is attempting to rebuild 'old Russia'. The break-up of the USSR galled him and still does. Odour of Adolph, eh! Like many similar leaders he's sees himself (likely) as a saviour. And his ego would want a heroic legacy.

Some people have become mind readers. If you're having a go at me, then you are wrong. See above. If there was anything I learned in the military, and serving in a war zone it was to research and learn from those who came before me on how to read a conflict through a thorough understanding of your enemy (Ss&ws) and an honest appraisal of your own Ss&Ws). If he wanted a swift victory, I suspect he might have sent in a scorched earth policy rather than the tinker round the edges approach they have employed until now. Putin has already acknowledged the incompetence of his military. And never underestimate arrogance and the perspective/thinking of a former KGB leader. He saw himself as a liberator with considerable support (and welcoming arms) from E Ukraine. Got that very wrong.

The innocent people of all nations are the first and major casualties of any war but I find the mindset of "neutral observers" fascinating when they champion efforts that they look at through the lens of bad guys vs good guys. As has been quoted before, the first casualty of war is truth, and then the sanctity of life, which becomes a myth in a war zone. On a personal note, the very first reality that hit me very strongly when I found myself in a war zone at the tender age of 17 was just how worthless my life was.

Oh and when it comes to Ukraine, the russians consider this a civil matter rather than a war between two nations which speaks for why they aren't just killing at will and scorching the earth. Doesn't matter whether it is regarded by Russia as a civil matter or not... humans are being murdered and raped. That's all that is important. Excuses/reasons are meaningless.

[LP]

I think it's all about money and Putin's billionaire mates.

They want control of EU Energy, because the income from the old world fossil fuels are diminishing and modern nuclear taking a bigger chunk of the low / zero carbon market is inevitable.

The rest is perhaps spin to motivate the troops, offering reasoning that perhaps make the foot soldiers believe they'll be better off by families having a chance at a slice of the pie.

I can't drop the idea that I'd heard more than once that Russia was effectively bankrupt before this all started.

That sunken ship no doubt took many lives with it, we may never know the toll, but it's not a surprise that 50s / 60s era based design / tech is easily disposed of in modern warfare, as good as the old giants might be as long range weapons platforms for strategic operations and self-defence they just aren't mobile enough in littoral operations. I believe Russia took it out of mothballs 20 years ago after about a decade on the rubbish pile, somewhat ironically it was built by Ukraine in the 70s! Two or three two bob drones can hover at a couple of thousand feet and put eyes on this thing from 10km or 20km away and triangulate it's position with pin point precision. The old gear is almost defenceless against such an attack!

As for the Russian bullshit, they spent days telling everyone it was an onboard accident, then after a couple of days they started spruiking revenge for Ukraine sinking their ship, it shows you just how poorly the campaign is managed!

[DJC]

These things in isolation are a problem.

However if fighting were raging modern surveillance would curtail the effectiveness of everything.  CCTV is also a factor here.

Its interesting.  We here about the odd thing Ukraine does and its celebrated as a major victory and the russians advancing on the midpoint of the nation and their capital is them having had an issue when its taken roughly a month to get there.  Im not an expert on these matters but its hardly the failure the news makes it out to be.

In the context of Russia’s overwhelming troop, tank, artillery, missile and naval forces and air superiority, it is a catastrophic failure.

[LP]

In the context of Russia’s overwhelming troop, tank, artillery, missile and naval forces and air superiority, it is a catastrophic failure.

Yes, I can't see it any other way, no leader is stupid enough to butcher his pawns and rooks, he is priming his own society for another revolution because sooner or later the truth emerges, and he would be among the first against the wall!

[DJC]

As the 'Art of War' develops we see that previously very effective 'weapons' and tactics are often bypassed by new and more effective equipment or strategies.

Lines of troops in tightly packed formations would have been cut to pieces during WW1
Cavalry is another example and pretty much lost it's impact during WW1.
Trench warfare wouldn't have worked too well in WWW2

As the fighting in Ukraine has shown us. there are things you wouldn't want to be 'sitting in' during the next major conflict-

A: Tanks
B: Most surface warships

It depends on the tanks Lods.  State of the art tanks, like our Abrams and most NATO tanks, have sophisticated anti-missile systems.  Most Russian tanks rely on explosive-reactive armour and that isn’t effective against smart missiles.  Of course, a brave person with a Molotov cocktail and a lot of luck can still take out a modern tank.

It’s much the same with ships; those with state of the art weapons systems should be relatively immune from missile strike.

Moskva is over 40 years old and, while it will have been upgraded, would still have had analog systems.

The closest thing we have to the Moskva are our three guided missile destroyers, all of which were commissioned within the last 4-5 years.

I suppose one factor Putin’s strategists got wrong was how quickly the West would re-arm Ukraine with sophisticated weapons systems.

[LP]

Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?

[ElwoodBlues1]

Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?

Putin would have an interest in Moldova and already has a foot in the door with Transnistria which is a non recognised
State which really is a Russian outpost on a strip of land annexed from Moldova with about 1000 Russian troops stationed there. Moldova is a hole of a country apart from it's charasmatic female president but borders Romania which is a important part of Nato's defensive setup.
Moldova is not part of NATO or the EU and unlike Ukraine doesn't have a strong military and would be an easy target if Putin can take Ukraine.

[DJC]

Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?

OECD suspended Russia and Belarus in February and committed to assist with Ukraine's recovery.

Russia isn't a member of OPEC and has been at loggerheads with some OPEC nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, quite often in the recent past.  However, several OPEC nations are within Russia's sphere of influence and are resisting calls to lift production and reduce dependence on Russian oil.  It is expected that oil production and access to reserves will ease pressure on oil prices this month.

[Thryleon]

In the context of Russia’s overwhelming troop, tank, artillery, missile and naval forces and air superiority, it is a catastrophic failure.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_S...fghanistan

20 years later we didn't hear about any of it being a failure 2 months in.