General Discussions

[LP]

The Ukranian rebuild alone will take many years and cost billions; with or without Russia's help.  Assuming of course some form of "peace" agreement is agreed to.  I don't see that happening for a long time.

After such an event it's common for the rebuilt economy to improve significantly, rapidly modernise in circumstances that would previously been impossible, and out perform it's past.

[capcom]

Color me a little cynical.  Power restoration?  European presence in their droves from neighboring countries to help?

Far from easy knowing russia

[Macca37]

After such an event it's common for the rebuilt economy to improve significantly, rapidly modernise in circumstances that would previously been impossible, and out perform it's past.

But where will the money come from to rebuild Ukraine's economy?  In any peace deal Russia will insist on iron clad guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO,  so the future for Ukraine seems to be that it will still be at the mercy of Russia.

With that scenario, I cannot see money from the West being invested in a rebuild.  Also, Russia seems intent on destroying Ukraine's manufacturing industries and plunging the country back to an agrarian society before holding meaningful peace talks.

[LP]

But where will the money come from to rebuild Ukraine's economy?  In any peace deal Russia will insist on iron clad guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO,  so the future for Ukraine seems to be that it will still be at the mercy of Russia.

With that scenario, I cannot see money from the West being invested in a rebuild.  Also, Russia seems intent on destroying Ukraine's manufacturing industries and plunging the country back to an agrarian society before holding meaningful peace talks.

What peace deal, do you really see it heading that way, and if it does what does "Peace Deal" actually mean?

Personally, I think this is now going to be long and protracted, it's really what makes sense for Ukraine and for those opposed to Putin. Financially Ukraine will get international support and that will for Russia will really hurt. Russia was already suffering in that it has now struggled for many years now to keep up with foreign competitive technologies, it's basically relying on low labour costs. I've a mate form the UK who went to the GP there just after the Olympics, and he tells me away from the Olympic venue the visit was like going back to 1960s London.

When any deal is done the sanctions will not be instantly lifted, trust will need to be restored before that happens.

Overall I have no idea, I cannot trust what I read, it's all politically coloured in some way, so that makes it very hard for the average external observer to get a handle on the situation. In fact, based on what we see we can barely recognise how Ukraine still exists, but it does. Is that a tell, is there more to this that we do not read or see in mainstream reports? I think it does tell us something, I think there is far more to the stalled progress of the Russian military than is exposed by international media.

[capcom]

If anything, it's exposed the soft underbelly of the Russian military.  Humiliated 

[LP]

If anything, it's exposed the soft underbelly of the Russian military.  Humiliated

I've an Ex. Army mate who states that defeating / stalling the Russian army is as easy as leaving crates of spirits besides the road, the sad thing is he is only half-joking.

I'm not sure that giving a nuclear capable fighting force lots of free alcohol makes sense! :o

[ElwoodBlues1]

Putin has sacrificed his conscripts and kept his best troops away from the street fighting etc.
He has his own version of the infamous SS named the Rosgvardiya which are his elite bodyguards as well as his elite paratroops and Spetsnaz groups including their version of the navy seals who the US green berets rate highly.
Conscripts with 1980's equipment and rations dated 2002 are just the 1st wave.
You know Putin is worried if he commits his best troops and air force with their sophisticated fighter jets.
Those old MIGs that Zelensky wants from Poland won't last 5 mins.
It's just a question of time before Putin has to decide if he wants to escalate this war and go harder or back off and keep what territory he values.

[cookie2]

If what I have read is right, and who knows,  Putin's current prime focus is to neutralize the main Ukrainian army in the East by cutting off its ammo, food and fuel supplies. Once that has been done the Russians would be in a very strong negotiating position.  Not sure how this may actually play out though.

[Baggers]

If what I have read is right, and who knows,  Putin's current prime focus is to neutralize the main Ukrainian army in the East by cutting off its ammo, food and fuel supplies. Once that has been done the Russians would be in a very strong negotiating position.  Not sure how this may actually play out though.

It's another Vietnam, Afghanistan etc., in the making. Although the Ruskies might take east Ukraine, the well funded and well supported (Ukraine) 'underground' will be constantly fighting against any occupation. Another thing the Russian 'intelligence' may not have figured on. This very spirited country, even if occupied will continue to fight, resist and provide an on-going headache for Russia and constant drain on their military resources/personnel... then the issue of occupation morale will occur.

[LP]

.. then the issue of occupation morale will occur.

[member=61]Baggers[/member]‍  It's got that feel about it, not quite right not that any war is, but it's got a never ending feel.