General Discussions

[DJC]

Putin is definitely on the wrong side of history.  The world will judge him accordingly.

I think that he will be judged a lot sooner and a lot more harshly than he expected.

I just hope that it's before his dirty little war escalates.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Putin was a pinup student for the KGB and loved the cloak and dagger stuff in East Germany. He speaks perfect German and was in charge of funding and inciting neo Nazi groups and terror organisations like the Baider Meinhoff gang. He has employed a lot of his old buddies from those days who also want the old Soviet ways to return.
I have been to Ukraine and it's one of the breakaway states that was quick to tear down old Russian monuments, mosaics, houses of culture and cut the eternal flame sites.Putin really hates that lack of respect and will want to flatten Ukraine completely even if he can't control the country. He has a lot of support in Russia from the older folk who loved the old Soviet days when they were well fed and had jobs. Very hard to live on the pension in Russia and when I was there you could see lines of old people getting on buses at 6.30am to go and work in community gardens to grow vegetables so they could eat properly. The Gopniks might hate Putin and uni students but many are  blinded by the media and see the "special operation" as part of protecting Russia from the USA and NATO.
While McDonald's, Ikea and other big well known stores have closed over in Russia, many others haven't like Burger King are still open, petrol has gone up but is still cheap compared to here.
No sanctions on Putin's gas supplies to Europe because they don't want to freeze to death and now he wants to be paid in rubles to help fix his money woes.
Going to be a long hard slog in Ukraine and the West will need to give Putin a face saving way out to end this imho..

[Gointocarlton]

I think that he will be judged a lot sooner and a lot more harshly than he expected.

I just hope that it's before his dirty little war escalates.

His day of reckoning is coming sooner than he thinks. And it will be one of his own and closest that inserts the knife/pill/bullet, he won't even see it coming.

[LP]

Going to be a long hard slog in Ukraine and the West will need to give Putin a face saving way out to end this imho..

The word I have is that Russia is busted ar5e broke [member=57]ElwoodBlues1[/member], as the EU and West diminishes the demand for fossil fuels Russia's income stream has evaporated, so it's trying to do a deal with China and China has obliged by purchasing coal, gas and oil from the Soviets and to look like good citizens the Chinese are not yet providing munitions.

But I've a contact who is a military political strategist, they tell me the West knew something was up when they saw fairly large scale munitions doing relatively little damage, relative being a fairly subjective term, missiles and bombs that should flatten a whole building not doing much more damage than an RPG grenade. It's not some humanitarian strategic small scale strike, it's because they cannot afford the explosives so the missiles and bombs have a fraction of the rated payload, everything is being rationed.

Basically they are throwing more cheaper smaller rocks to try and maximise the coverage while minimising the operating cost. The butter is spread very very thin.

[Mav]

There were amazing reports in the early stages of the invasion that the Russians were caught out by the traditional tendency of Russian soldiers to make money off the black market. That was exacerbated by Putin keeping his plans to invade to himself. That meant that the soldiers sent to the border with Ukraine thought they were just on manoeuvres. Accordingly, soldiers were happily selling off petrol and communication gear to the locals. Then, bang, the invasion is on and they have a fuel shortage and communication issues! It reminds me of Hair where Treat Williams' character volunteered to take his mate's place at boot camp during the Vietnam War so his mate could see his friends for a going-away party only to find to his horror that he was loaded onto a transport plane and flown to Vietnam before his mate returned. 

[DJC]

The word I have is that Russia is busted ar5e broke [member=57]ElwoodBlues1[/member], as the EU and West diminishes the demand for fossil fuels Russia's income stream has evaporated, so it's trying to do a deal with China and China has obliged by purchasing coal, gas and oil from the Soviets and to look like good citizens the Chinese are not yet providing munitions.

But I've a contact who is a military political strategist, they tell me the West knew something was up when they saw fairly large scale munitions doing relatively little damage, relative being a fairly subjective term, missiles and bombs that should flatten a whole building not doing much more damage than an RPG grenade. It's not some humanitarian strategic small scale strike, it's because they cannot afford the explosives so the missiles and bombs have a fraction of the rated payload, everything is being rationed.

Basically they are throwing more cheaper smaller rocks to try and maximise the coverage while minimising the operating cost. The butter is spread very very thin.

In my experience, you can't reduce the explosive content of missiles/artillery shells without altering the trajectory and, from what I've seen, the munitions are doing exactly what you'd expect to the targets.

My information is that the Russians severely under-estimated the resolve of the Ukranians and their capacity to defend.  The Ukranians opened the floodgates on several dams and the inundated land makes it extremely difficult for the invading troops to manoeuvre.  That all means a logistics nightmare for the Russians and that's adding to an already low morale among the troops, most of whom are simply cannon fodder and not highly-trained special forces.

On top of that, NATO and EU are providing sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-armour munitions that are more than capable of defeating anything the Russians can field. 

[madbluboy]

Russia could wipe Ukraine off of the map if they wanted to.

[LP]

In my experience, you can't reduce the explosive content of missiles/artillery shells without altering the trajectory and, from what I've seen, the munitions are doing exactly what you'd expect to the targets.

I'm not sure of the details of how this happens, whether he means guided or also ballistic munitions.

I suppose they could replace mass with ballast.

Pure speculation on my part, I wonder about the reports broke Russia military are selling equipment and resources on the black market, would they could they actually replace explosives with ballast, earn some money in the process and have a clearer conscience?

As far as wars go this one is truly awful and bizarre, so much is wrong while not being quite right.

[DJC]

Russia could wipe Ukraine off of the map if they wanted to.

Russia could wipe most of the world off the map if they wanted to.  However, even Putin is aware that Russia would be obliterated in return.

Ukraine was a major player in the manufacture of sophisticated military hardware in the days of the Soviet Union.  Those manufacturing facilities have been under Ukranian control for decades and continue to produce sophisticated weapons.  For example, the T-64 tank manufactured in Ukraine is a product of the 1960s but, with modernisation programs, is superior to the T-72, T-80 and T-90 tanks used by the Russians.

Ukraine's response is restrained because they know that Putin could deploy NBC weapons.  Russia's offensive is restrained because they know that NATO could spoil their party.

[ElwoodBlues1]

Meanwhile China have bought off the Solomon islands and now have a security agreement which is a nice cover for a military presence and refuelling depot for their shipping and all close to our backyard.
Bad form from the Solly govt but after cutting ties with Taiwan a few years back hardly surprising they have a new best buddy in the expansionist Chinese.