CV and mad panic behaviour

[Baggers]

Sorry to read of your friend's tragic story, Spotted One. Sadly, there have been too many of these and likely many more to come.

When you look at the statistics of those going into intensive care the under vaccinated and not vaccinated are disproportionately represented. The message is clear.

Look after yourself, Principal LODS. Glad you're fully vaccinated.

My uncle by marriage in NSW, who's had heart surgery, bowel surgery (cancer), six months of chemo, colostomy bag for around 9 months and is 70, is fully vaccinated and got Covid a coupla months ago... mild sniffles, no hospitalisation needed. And he's on all manner of medication for his ticker.

[Mav]

Wow, that’s a good result!

[Baggers]

Wow, that’s a good result!

He went through all of that over about a 4 year period... first the bowel cancer (ignored symptoms - tough guy) which was pretty well established. Bag for a while. Then when the bag was removed and he was finished with chemo, 3 hospitalisations with heart attacks so then the ticker surgery... and so on. He only got tested for Covid on the insistence of my aunt as she noticed his sniffles - and her own.

[Baggers]

I often wonder when the daily new infections stats come out what the real infection rate is in, say, our state? Some of the stats, %s and data gurus on here might know the answer to that one.

Mrs Baggers was reading some interesting research over the weekend on Covid and blood groups - mortality rates by age groups etc. Early stages but interesting. Long way to go but it seems the older blood groups (Os) do a little better in terms of survival.

[LP]

I often wonder when the daily new infections stats come out what the real infection rate is in, say, our state?

Effective R[sub]0[/sub] was 1.5 on average for Vic in recent times so the restrictions are working, but they are breaking it down by region now so some areas like the Northern Suburbs or Dandenong / Cranbourne are quite a bit higher at about 3.5.

They can basically tell which areas aren't complying with lockdown restrictions based on the R[sub]0[/sub] calculation for that region!

The raw R[sub]0[/sub] for Delta is now estimated to be above 8.5, so that is basically as bad as polio, measles or chicken pox, but that is an estimate and not the effective R[sub]0[/sub]. Effective R[sub]0[/sub] is a function of all countermeasures offsetting the virus capability. However, the raw R[sub]0[/sub] estimate gives you an idea of how bad things could get if they let it rip in dense unpopulated communities.

[LP]

FWIW, the cost of not vaccinating and allowing infections to run free is starting to reveal itself in joint studies run by Chinese doctors and the US AMA.

JAMA Open

In this cohort study of 2433 patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19, the most common symptoms at 1 year after discharge were fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia. Patients with severe disease had more post infection symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores.

45% of post COVID sufferers report symptoms at 1 year, these are symptoms validated by doctors not self-reporting like VAERS, and that isn't the Delta variant which wasn't yet about when those patients recovered! :o

This high societal and economic cost has been known to be the case regarding Sars-CoV-2 since the initial outbreak, it is completely ignored by the COVID sceptics and lockdown dissenters.

I've heard some epidemiologists report that calculations of the long term economic cost produce estimates as high as 6.5x the initial cost of the pandemic.

[Mav]

He went through all of that over about a 4 year period... first the bowel cancer (ignored symptoms - tough guy) which was pretty well established. Bag for a while. Then when the bag was removed and he was finished with chemo, 3 hospitalisations with heart attacks so then the ticker surgery... and so on. He only got tested for Covid on the insistence of my aunt as she noticed his sniffles - and her own.

It might just be 1 case, but it shows being fully vaccinated means those who might be in several categories of susceptibility don’t need to think of themselves as sitting ducks. That’s cause for optimism in a pessimistic world.

[LP]

It might just be 1 case, but it shows being fully vaccinated means those who might be in several categories of susceptibility don’t need to think of themselves as sitting ducks. That’s cause for optimism in a pessimistic world.

Another example of vaccine optimism can be taken from The Rage reports today about Silverton, Colorado, Delta still spreading despite 99.9% vaccination but vaccinated are not dying from it!

The county logged its first hospitalisations of the pandemic in early August – this year, not 2020. Five summer residents were hospitalised. Three ended up on ventilators: Two recovered and the third, a 53-year-old woman, died at the end of August. All were believed to be unvaccinated.

[Mav]

From a SMH report:

About 15,000 additional doses of a new COVID-19 treatment already showing promise in Sydney’s hospitals will arrive in Australia this week.
Sotrovimab, a novel monoclonal antibody treatment administered by a one-time intravenous infusion, was approved by the Therapeutic Goods Administration on August 20.
The treatment has been shown to reduce hospitalisation or death by 79 per cent for adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 at risk of developing a more severe disease.
Professor Greg Dore, an infectious diseases physician at St Vincent’s Hospital, said the treatment was having a “potential impact” on reducing intensive care numbers, and was particularly useful as it could be administered to people receiving treatment for COVID-19 at home during a short appointment.
“We just bring them in for a couple of hours ... it is administered over 30 minutes or half an hour and a half observation period after that they go home,” he explained.
In a statement, federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said the treatment “has the potential to protect Australians from developing serious disease, and reduce hospitalisations and death in people who are at high risk from COVID-19″.
“Vaccination, however, continues to remain the most important and safest way for Australians to protect themselves and their loved ones from COVID-19,” he said.

[Mav]

The recent addition of oral antivirals and another monoclonal antibody treatment to the doctors’ armoury is really encouraging. The death rate from Covid will continue to diminish. But there’s a couple of perverse public policy implications:

1. These treatments might be reserved for those at greater risk. Mostly, that’s fair. The elderly or those with co-morbidities need the help. But if being unvaccinated is seen as putting someone at greater risk of becoming seriously ill, then they’ll leapfrog others who’ve done the right thing. A 55 year old who is fully vaccinated will make way for his identical twin who is proudly unvaccinated. That sucks.
   
   
2. The increasing effectiveness of treatments might finally make the anti-vaxxers’ assertion that Covid is no more lethal than the flu true. That may undercut the basis for vaccine mandates. Of course, refusing vaccines and relying on expensive treatments will be a financial drain on health budgets but financial arguments might not make the case for mandates; on the other hand, the most vulnerable people will still benefit from high vaccination rates as they’ll remain most at risk of dying if they contract Covid..