CV and mad panic behaviour

[capcom]

We're pretty stupid in Victoria sometimes [member=57]ElwoodBlues1[/member] ...  >

[Mav]

What? There were 20,000 cases in quarantine hotels? Wait a minute ... there must have been a few cases of infected people leaving those hotels and then it ripped through the community. You’d almost say it was highly infectious and lockdowns were required to stop the spread. But maybe that was too harsh and we should have considered suicidality and the loss of businesses. Like, how bad could it have ended up?

[Mav]

You’d have thought those who are concerned about the impact of lockdowns would concentrate on the reports that deaths from heart attacks and diabetes have increased in the wake of Covid. Among the possible causes are failing to seek or continue medical treatment for such serious conditions, lack of exercise while staying home, adopting unhealthy habits, change of lifestyle including loss of work, and  stress. These aren’t exclusive to lockdowns of course as they also apply to those who have tried to minimise their risk of exposure when that wasn’t mandated and to those who have been anxious about Covid generally. It’ll be interesting to see where the studies take us.

The data from overseas is perhaps less relevant than Australian data. In particular, the US is probably a poor comparison. The health system over there is heavily reliant on health insurance. The uninsured often defer seeking medical treatment for fear of being bankrupted after doing so (and the uninsured have a lower life expectancy as a result). Unfortunately, many Americans have relied upon insurance coverage provided by their employers. Presumably, a lot of Americans lost their health insurance along with their jobs when the pandemic hit.

[Thryleon]

You’d have thought those who are concerned about the impact of lockdowns would concentrate on the reports that deaths from heart attacks and diabetes have increased in the wake of Covid. Among the possible causes are failing to seek or continue medical treatment for such serious conditions, lack of exercise while staying home, adopting unhealthy habits, change of lifestyle including loss of work, and  stress. These aren’t exclusive to lockdowns of course as they also apply to those who have tried to minimise their risk of exposure when that wasn’t mandated and to those who have been anxious about Covid generally. It’ll be interesting to see where the studies take us.

The data from overseas is perhaps less relevant than Australian data. In particular, the US is probably a poor comparison. The health system over there is heavily reliant on health insurance. The uninsured often defer seeking medical treatment for fear of being bankrupted after doing so (and the uninsured have a lower life expectancy as a result). Unfortunately, many Americans have relied upon insurance coverage provided by their employers. Presumably, a lot of Americans lost their health insurance along with their jobs when the pandemic hit.

Could argue those deaths are exacerbated by lockdowns and the health services putting a lot of their surgeries on hold, people being stressed about how they are going to make ends meet.  Home schooling kids.  Kids are definitely impacted in ways that won't show for years.

Meanwhile, your arguments are too simplistic.

1.5 years later this doesn't look like a pandemic to me but a massive over reaction.

[Gointocarlton]

Could argue those deaths are exacerbated by lockdowns and the health services putting a lot of their surgeries on hold, people being stressed about how they are going to make ends meet.  Home schooling kids.  Kids are definitely impacted in ways that won't show for years.

Meanwhile, your arguments are too simplistic.

1.5 years later this doesn't look like a pandemic to me but a massive over reaction.

Over reaction? Not really, I think we have seen it slaughter other countries so control is important. Have we taken it to the extreme? Possibly here in Victoria but there is no way they were going to allow a repeat of the first Quarantine outbreak to occur so I can understand the caution. Perhaps they need to devise a mechanism to control specific out breaks (ie localised lockdowns or the like) although we can see with this latest one how quickly it spreads from one suburb to another and another etc.

[Thryleon]

Its really hard to quantify.  We've had the majority of our cases and death in an aged care setting.

Its like conducting an opinion poll and extrapolating results against a population with a sample size that doesn't represent the majority.

When you factor in massaging of statistics (comorbidities ignored) it has hairs on it.

Did you go make salami?  Where can I pick one up??

[Thryleon]

On a side note just got my first Pfizer dose.

[Gointocarlton]

Its really hard to quantify.  We've had the majority of our cases and death in an aged care setting.

Its like conducting an opinion poll and extrapolating results against a population with a sample size that doesn't represent the majority.

When you factor in massaging of statistics (comorbidities ignored) it has hairs on it.

Did you go make salami?  Where can I pick one up??

Not yet mate, maybe this weekend if we get out of jail and I can get the meat from my supplier. I'll let you know in 10 weeks

[Slowhand]

Was looking forwatd to watching our young Ocean Grove Seniors take on Flag favourites Torquay this weekend. 
But wait -

No Spectators allowed, No Bar, No Canteen.

FFS enough is enough........ >  >  >  >  >  >  >  >

[LP]

Long COVID-19 is real, it isn't just about deaths.

Currently the global average for long COVID-19 is that 15% of people infected survivors still have significant symptoms beyond 3 months. The spectrum ranges from headaches and twitches to serious heart and lung or neuromuscular conditions, it even looks like some who were classified as asymptomatic in the initial diagnosis will also be affected in someway long term.

In the USA the researchers fear is that many more cases go undiagnosed than they realise, some are now being picked up as high viral load but asymptomatic using flow cytometry and lateral flow tests, which are very sensitive compared to PCR but for medium and high level infections will give very reliable viral load counts. Initially they thought only about 5% of cases might be asymptomatic and infectious, but the early figures are showing up to 35% of cases are asymptomatic with medium to high viral load and infectious. If 15% of those have long term health effects the impact of Sars-CoV-2 is going to be significant and very expensive. In the USA obviously a lot of it is privatised, but in a place like here or the UK the burden on the public health system could be disastrous for everyone, even those who think staying isolated and healthy are going to be hit, imagine what might happen to health insurance costs!

When you start to add these impacts to the more immediate deadly effects, you can understand why the authorities are so jumpy.

For those of you who trust The Economist or Forbes, here is a nice plain language summary in Forbes,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalto...5aa1a6ee03

This article makes a claim that in one study they found vaccination even after an infection reduces long COVID symptoms, I haven't found the sources for that I'd be a bit sceptical, the reporting articles paraphrase a lot so you have to be careful, and they might just be local effects based on small numbers.