Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[LP]

Teflon Trump, nothing significant will stick IMO and I think its a waste of time and money . I think the Republicans will want him out of the news, he wont run again and he will fade into the background apart from slow news days where journos might seek him out for some spicy theatrical commentary.

 Yes, they want his supporters, they don't want him!

[DJC]

Exactly.
If you have a trial based on a set of political rules don't expect a 'good, decent, correct result'...expect political tactics and political results.

The impeachment trial gave the Democrats an opportunity to showcase the intent of the insurrectionists and the threat Aurangzeb posed to US democracy.  Maintaining the rage is important in preventing any repetition, as well as using the spectre of Aurangzeb to boost the mid-term vote.

McConnell made it clear that his aim was to protect his brand rather than his man.  He will happily throw Aurangzeb under a bus, provided there’s limited political fallout.

[Lods]

The impeachment trial gave the Democrats an opportunity to showcase the intent of the insurrectionists and the threat Aurangzeb posed to US democracy.  Maintaining the rage is important in preventing any repetition, as well as using the spectre of Aurangzeb to boost the mid-term vote.

I guess the questions are-
How does that impact?
Who does it impact?
How long term is its effect?

1/3 of voters of voting age didn't even care enough to vote.
1/3 of voters voted for more of the same.

The videos of the insurrection no doubt had an impact and shocked some folks
The videos of the attacks on Trump (using similar 'fighting'  language) through his Presidency would have dragged a few back to the other side.

The end result...banner headlines 'Trump Acquitted'.
How many folks go past the headline.
We do, because we've demonstrated over the many pages of this thread that it interests us.
But to the average Joe/Josie, the 'American in the street', how deeply do they look at that.
They'll be more concerned about the future under Biden than what's occurred under Trump.
They'll be looking forward rather than back.
Trump will be a "been there, done that...no thanks"

As  a result I believe Trump's influence will fade now he's out of the spotlight. (as  much as he'll try and crawl back in)
Fairly quickly actually, as Republicans move to break the ties.
He'll create a bit of mischief in the next 12 months, his legacy will be that like minded souls will take up the cudgels (they'll see a rump support they can make use of)  but the main thrust of the GOP will be a repositioning to a more moderate approach.
I suspect by the time the mid-terms roll around the Republicans will have moved well away from the Trump era

Now that's just a guess on my part and others will have a completely different view of the future.
Time will tell.

[capcom]

I have quite a few good friends in the United States.  It's a 50 / 50 split between Republican and Democrat.  That divide will never be broken as the views are unbelievably entrenched.

But if there is a (more or less) common theme amongst them it's this.  Get rid of Pelosi.

[Mav]

I had to check the calendar, Lods,  to make sure it isn’t 2015. That’s exactly the way Republicans were thinking then. Almost all of Trump’s opponents in the primaries assumed Trump would implode and they sucked up to him in the hope they’d inherit his supporters when he did. Sound familiar? Do you think Never Trumpers would be as confident as you are that the Republican Party will rebound like a rubber ball?

I’m guessing Australians see the US through Australian eyes. We assume the Democrats and Republicans are pretty much the same as the Labor & Liberal Parties. I don’t think they are. What exactly is the Republican Party? Unlike here, there isn’t much of a party structure. It becomes the party of the Presidential Candidate. The RNC is a bit like a Body Corporate in an apartment block: it has a fundraising function and dispenses those funds to GOP candidates come election time and keeps voter databases GOP candidates can use. But it doesn’t seem to exert much control over the GOP’s direction. It is supposed to develop the party platform and promote it, but it lost that figleaf when it announced ahead of Trump’s most recent nominating convention that GOP policies were whatever Trump announced. This is lightyears away from the factional structure of the Labor Party.

By the way, there’s not much more centralised or diffused power in the Democratic Party either. Bernie Sanders was pretty close to winning the nomination twice, and yet he isn’t even a Democrat! He’s an independent Senator who caucuses with the Democrats (as does Senator Angus King). The only nod to centralised power is the super delegate system.

Both parties hold primaries that are open to any registered voter, whether they are registered as Democrats, Republicans or independents. Compare that to the Australian system where pre-selections are confined to party members and the parties control who can become or remain members.

The GOP is now becoming the party of QAnon. And Trump is their guy. We see that from Marjorie Taylor Green avoiding censure from the QOP while Liz Cheney and other Republicans face censure for voting in favour of impeachment. That’ll probably kill it in the coming elections but individual Republicans have as much chance of turning back the hordes as King Canute had of turning back the tide. Who can save the GOP from Trump?

[PaulP]

Lots of good points Mav.

[Mav]

Wouldn’t it be great to see a 9/11 style commission into the insurrection? 

That’ll make it hard for the ReTrumplicans to shove this whole insurrection thing down the memory hole. It would be the Democrats shoving it down the other GOP hole à la the Benghazi inquiry. And it should keep Trump’s lawyers busy for a year resisting subpoenas served on him and his minions.

[Lods]

It'll probably take about 12 months to see what the post Trump political landscape looks like.
No doubt he baffled us all in 2016...If we re-read the first 20-30 pages of this thread.
Few could see him in the top job early on (there were a few).

I just feel average folks (having tried a dose of Trump)...will be a bit exhausted by it all, and looking to put it behind them.
It was a novelty, something different the first time...It wouldn't be the same second time around.

No doubt some sections on the Democratic side will see an advantage in "maintaining the rage' and keeping it at the forefront.
The Republicans face a battle between those who wish to rid themselves of  the Trump association and those who see a core group to build on.

Trumps influence will be the big  question mark.
Will he be to distracted by his own legal issues?
Will his enthusiasm for the contest last four years?
He'll want to fight for a better spin on his time, so he'll take opportunities to attack Biden and others for any perceived failings.
But having achieved the top position will his attention revert to a better score on his golf card.

[Mav]

He has the problem of former dictators: once you lose power, how do you protect yourself? Trump’s answer may be to retain as much power & influence  as he can by keeping a stranglehold over the QOP. After all, wealth + power in the US pretty much puts you above the law.

He has shown the Presidency itself didn’t do much to slow down his golf game. He just ignored the usual President stuff so he could enjoy not only golf but also his other favourite pastime of wreaking vengeance on anyone who crosses him. He can continue to do both while leaving his minions to organise a new presidential campaign.

[LP]

He has shown the Presidency itself didn’t do much to slow down his golf game. He just ignored the usual President stuff so he could enjoy not only golf but also his other favourite pastime of wreaking vengeance on anyone who crosses him. He can continue to do both while leaving his minions to organise a new presidential campaign.

Stuff will out, it always does, but I don't think political enemies are the real problem for him if some of the financial rumours are true.

I suppose the problem for the Democrats, and to Trumps advantage, is that you can generally settle your way out of financial problems.