Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

[Mav]

There are constitutional concerns regarding the Succession Act as some think the Constitution didn’t allow Congress to provide for a lawmaker to take control of the administrative arm of the US Government. This argument suggests that only cabinet members should be in the line of succession after the President and Vice President. This would mean Secretary of State Pompeo would be next in line. But what happens on 20 January when Cabinet Secretaries lose their positions automatically? This is just another example of the inadequacies of the Constitution if you strip away the conventions that make it work and have a Supreme Court that likes to hold seances to figure out what a bunch of 18th Century dudes were thinking.

[LP]

The new Congress formally begins on Jan 3rd, the date for the Inauguration is somewhat arbitrary.

"The Process" as historically implemented is complicated because things do not happen as precedents would suggest. The Trump tactic to try and remove faith in the popular vote and bring in Governor chosen Electors initiates the 12th Amendment, which unless there is some tactical change in the interim requires a joint sitting of the house on the 6th of Jan with a decision at 1pm. But that is 3 days after the new Congress.

If the Congress appears corrupt or is unable to make a decision, any disquiet from the public brings the Insurrection Act into play, if triggers are meet it allows the use of the US military against US citizens. Apparently it has happened before.

It seems that the ultimate power in the Lame Duck Phase sits with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and they can somewhat arbitrarily decide who gets the keys to the nukes. The consensus is that the Joint Chiefs are unlikely to move against the popular vote if Biden has already been declared the winner. Apparently there is a legal precedent going back to the Civil War, which was delayed by the Supreme Court when they ruled going to war during the lame duck phase was illegal, in that bipartisan support was needed and wasn't available. So while the constitutions dates and times are hard written, the consensus is that the military would never act otherwise no matter what Trump wants. Jan 20th is the very very latest date for a decisive decision, in the interim Trump is likely to need bipartisan support from Biden to do anything in lunacy!

[Mav]

There are scenarios where Congress might have to decide who should become President, so it has to be in place before Inauguration Day. For instance, if Biden wins Georgia but Trump wins the other States, both will have 269 Electoral College votes and the House of Representatives will decide the election. Unfortunately, Trump would almost certainly win in that scenario.

Another scenario is that Pennsylvania goes to Biden and is the only State that takes him to 270 Electoral College votes. If the Pennsylvania legislature claims electoral fraud, it could send its own pro-Trump slate of electors to the Electoral College. In all likelihood, that would send it to the new Congress to decide.

Of course, there’s now no  good reason for delaying the sitting of the new Congress until the New Year.

[LP]

I suppose I summarise this complexity, as "Hardly a democracy!"

[Lods]

As more votes roll in it seems the greater and more comfortable Biden's final margin will be.
That's in the best interests of America
The larger that is, the more likely a meltdown can be avoided.
Trump will continue to fire-up his hard-core supporters but without the energy of a result that can be overturned the fire may soon go out.

More moderate Republicans, especially lawmakers , will now need to reposition themselves with an eye to the future.
There are mid-term elections only 2 years away.
That's not a huge amount of time to carry out repairs.
There will be a concerted effort 'to take back the party' and rid itself of the Trump influence.
That could be a bit of a turbulent and interesting time as forces on the far right will be very resistant.

[DJC]

As more votes roll in it seems the greater and more comfortable Biden's final margin will be.
That's in the best interests of America
The larger that is, the more likely a meltdown can be avoided.
Trump will continue to fire-up his hard-core supporters but without the energy of a result that can be overturned the fire may soon go out.

More moderate Republicans, especially lawmakers , will now need to reposition themselves with an eye to the future.
There are mid-term elections only 2 years away.
That's not a huge amount of time to carry out repairs.
There will be a concerted effort 'to take back the party' and rid itself of the Trump influence.
That could be a bit of a turbulent and interesting time as forces on the far right will be very resistant.

It’s hard to know what to expect Lods.  For many supporters of the POTUS, the larger Biden’s winning margin is just means that the electoral fraud was greater.  However, it’s good to see some senior Republicans having a crack at the POTUS for trashing America’s system of democracy.  That’s exactly the outcome that foreign government meddling is intended to achieve so Putin, Rouhani, etc will be very happy with the POTUS’s spoilt child behaviour.

I learnt last night that, at least in some states, the Governor can direct their electoral college voters to vote for the candidate other the one who won the state ballot  :o

It is a strange system.  Dropping the colleges for direct election of the president would be a step in the right direction.

[Lods]

We really won't know the extent of any reaction until the result is declared.
That may be the trigger for some of the more aggressive responses.
The more Republican leaders that distance themselves from Trump's comments and 'stay put' stance the better.

I cant see any change of the system from the Electoral college to a popular vote in the near future so it's not worth spending too much time thinking it might occur.
The college system generally delivers the same result anyway.
There may be some push though to standardise rules and procedures across the states.

[Mav]

More moderate Republicans, especially lawmakers , will now need to reposition themselves with an eye to the future.
There are mid-term elections only 2 years away.
That's not a huge amount of time to carry out repairs.
There will be a concerted effort 'to take back the party' and rid itself of the Trump influence.
That could be a bit of a turbulent and interesting time as forces on the far right will be very resistant.

Perhaps, Lods. I hope so. A contrary school of thought is that Trump might lose but he has dragged a lot of vulnerable down ballot Republicans across the line by generating huge turnout (the 2nd highest in history, beaten only by Biden). As a result, the GOP has held on to the Senate, flipped some House seats, preserved Republican State legislatures etc. etc. It may be that Republicans in Congress are grateful to Trump. If Trump keeps floating a run for President in 2024, Trump may well preserve his base and be able to punish Republicans who reject him. Add to this that he may well build his own media presence (possibly setting up a Trump media entity), Republicans will be hesitant to cross him. As the old saying goes, don’t laugh at the crocodile until you’re over the bridge.

Did anyone see the story on the news.com.au site that Putin may be forced to retire because of Parkinson’s? If true, wow!

[capcom]

Did anyone see the story on the news.com.au site that Putin may be forced to retire because of Parkinson’s? If true, wow!

Yep, I saw that.  Will be fascinating to see how that develops and on all fronts.  Winds of political change are at an all time high, certainly in recent times

[Gointocarlton]

Yep, I saw that.  Will be fascinating to see how that develops and on all fronts.  Winds of political change are at an all time high, certainly in recent times

Meh, another scum bucket will just step in.