CV and mad panic behaviour

[mateinone]

But Kruddler
You seem to at one stage suggest it could have shut down, but then suggest logistics means it couldn't easily.
But why couldn't there be trigger points, I means when we were 2x, 3x, heading for 5 x and eventually ending on 7x the weekly rate from wave 1

I understand logistics are a big factor, but I don't buy that it creates the lead time we seen.
No offense Kruddler, but you seem so invested in one side of the story that you are sure there must be alternative reasons. Perhaps I am so sure of my position it makes me scoff at such reasons as being okay..

But I can't buy that we "had" to have the extra 10,000 or so infections, because Dan couldn't get the logistics right, it implies we would need to face the same scenario if there is another wave.

Also the test, track/trace was a huge stuff up.

I mean the people most responsible for the size and duration of this outbreak is the government. Yes the age demographics suggest there are people doing the wrong thing to of course and we see that with the fines and the idiots, but most people are compliant and with sensible, well implemented and strong enough restrictions in place sooner, many many lives would have been saved.

The government though does not even want to share the data on the decision making, because it goes against he public interest.
From today's papers.

Victoria’s curfew was put in place on August 2 to run from 8pm to 5am.

From September 14 it was loosened by former deputy public health commander Michelle Giles to 9pm to 5am and was due to expire on October 11.

Prof Giles had only spent nine days in the role when she signed off on the curfew and told the court she acted without any influence from Daniel Andrews or his office.

She said she made the decision based on government data that proved “a clear and direct correlation” between stage 4 restrictions and a reduction in case numbers.

However, that data remains secret data has not been tendered in court.

The Herald Sun reports that the lawyers representing the state government said they would resist the production of the data on public interest immunity grounds – which means the release of the documents would be against the public interest.

I mean come on, we don't have people mature enough to make debates and need to hide such data as though it is a state secret?

[dodge]

With the 14 day average now below trigger points for the road map, it will be interesting on Sunday to see if there are some restrictions that will be lifted early.

There is significant pressure by business and on business that I think some more will be allowed to open their doors again.

[LP]

The fundamental problem as I see it is that the politicians flip between ideologies of control versus extinction, it is driving the decision making. They have people some of them qualified but some unqualified whispering in their ear.

NZ must have been a real wake up call, and certainly a game changer for anyone except the morbidly stupid, over there the politicians want to point the finger but the science is telling them the virus is now endemic like the flu.

Virus extinction is not a real world option, it never was, but it is a wish or a dream some still have!

[kruddler]

@MIO...
Obviously with some of this i'm speculating because i don't work for the government. I said earlier that i'm playing devils advocate in parts.

For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is.
Instead i'm saying i can understand the overall picture to a degree and i'm not arguing the modelling as that is your baby and i trust your judgement on those things.

Again, on the overall spectrum he has done well. Would he do some things different if he had his time again? Sure. Wouldn't everybody??

[mateinone]

For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is.
Instead i'm saying i can understand the overall picture to a degree and i'm not arguing the modelling as that is your baby and i trust your judgement on those things.

Again, on the overall spectrum he has done well. Would he do some things different if he had his time again? Sure. Wouldn't everybody??

I think that is our fundamental difference, I think on the overall spectrum he has not, on the first wave.. immensely successful, on the 2nd, really awful.

Btw on the restrictions, I would ease this week, but only ever so slightly, my issue with the road map he has is the next phase.

At the current rate, without some uncharted outbreak (which can happen so easily when the numbers are so low), we are on track for being under 15 cases (average over 14 days for the state) around October 1-2.
That for me is when things get interesting, because NSW peaked at 13 cases a day averaged over 2 weeks in August and have managed to keep things relatively under control to date. Once Vicitoria's numbers go under NSW's peak numbers, it is going to be a hard sell to suggest that people really can't go and get a packet of smokes or a loaf of bread at 7/11 at 11pm at night.

I am not against it now, but it is going to be very interesting if things change... Despite all my disappointment in Dan's handling in this case, which I have posted also away from here, I have also posted that I have faith they will alter the roadmap, it is just a case of  when.

[Professer E]

I don't understand why SA is opening the border with NSW,  when the cases there are hovering around ten a day or so,  not much different to Victoria which remains in stage 4 lock down.

[Baggers]

We can discuss the politics and the politicians involved in all of this but we must also look into the public service and how well that is performing in terms of systems, people and technology in place to discharge its responsibilities,  in this case manage  a pandemic. I firmly believe it is sadly lacking and the problems we have witnessed are systemic.  Politicians should be focused on sorting them out as well as managing the current crisis and we, the public, should be kept fully informed and not lied to.

I wonder if this pandemic has woken up many to the reality of pandemics and their potential devastation. We hope that those who run the show have learned that public education & understanding becomes a priority along with future strategies to deal with another 'outbreak' swiftly and effectively. And there will be more.

Personally, I believe a national pandemic should be run out of Canberra and not by individual states. These things are much better handled when there is one centralised, co-ordinated message, that is strategically ready, informed and resourced. We need to be prepared, at all levels, for future pandemics. I hope we have learned that lesson.

The Federal Government has at its disposal the military and within the military there are highly ranked dudes who are trained, know and understand how to institute and manage/run a disciplined national strategy... advised and directed, of course, by senior, experienced, non-political medical/scientific personnel. Science loads the bullets, the military fires them whilst the govt of the day supports these folks and the community at large and is ultimately accountable - so you need a few ministers who bury partisan, ideological political crap and stand shoulder to shoulder with science, the military and the community to look after the entire nation.

[Thryleon]

I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters.  Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be.

1.  ICU's are literally knife edge stuff.  If you are in one as a patient, you are either gone for all money, or are a slim chance of getting out alive.  They should be renamed Critical care units, but I think they don't want to panic people heading into them which is why they are branded ICU not CCU.

2.  The ICU's are not quick turnaround.  You dont go in one day, and then come out right as rain a couple of days after you aren't critical.  You go in on your death bed, and you end up in there for days on end in a life or death battle.  Sometimes the outcome of either can take days, weeks or months, and from what I understand we do quite well, but its no easy feat to be in an ICU.

3.  There arent as many ICU beds as everyone thinks there are.  I can tell you, that the network I work for, covers a very large catchment area, and based on additional spending we can maximise our ICU's at a grand total of 66 beds in 3 hospitals with emergency departments, and a host of others without any capability....  Food for thought, our catchment area is quite large and would have a couple of million people in it from Metropolitan Melbourne.

Sure, there are other options to flex into temporary setups, and private hospitals of which I am not aware of, but I can tell you now, that if the public understand that having 15+ patients in my network with covid is 25% of their capability to look after ANY patient requiring an ICU, then they might have a better understanding.  The ICU's are not generally packed, but they are never empty and from memory Ive never seen them less than 50% vacant at any one time.  I have only been into ICU few times during the COVID crisis, and on each occasion have seen at least a few COVID patients.  During this relatively mundane wave, there was a distinct panic about what it could potentially mean if things got out of hand with the exponential growth.

Food for thought.  Politicise this all you like, the hospital networks were struggling at one point, and there was some genuine issues with staffing the beds, irrespective of what people may have thought about hospital capacity.  Nurse to patient ratios are still a thing, and you cant open a bed if there is no one to look after the patient lying in there.

[Baggers]

I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters.  Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be.

1.  ICU's are literally knife edge stuff.  If you are in one as a patient, you are either gone for all money, or are a slim chance of getting out alive.  They should be renamed Critical care units, but I think they don't want to panic people heading into them which is why they are branded ICU not CCU.

2.  The ICU's are not quick turnaround.  You dont go in one day, and then come out right as rain a couple of days after you aren't critical.  You go in on your death bed, and you end up in there for days on end in a life or death battle.  Sometimes the outcome of either can take days, weeks or months, and from what I understand we do quite well, but its no easy feat to be in an ICU.

3.  There arent as many ICU beds as everyone thinks there are.  I can tell you, that the network I work for, covers a very large catchment area, and based on additional spending we can maximise our ICU's at a grand total of 66 beds in 3 hospitals with emergency departments, and a host of others without any capability....  Food for thought, our catchment area is quite large and would have a couple of million people in it from Metropolitan Melbourne.

Sure, there are other options to flex into temporary setups, and private hospitals of which I am not aware of, but I can tell you now, that if the public understand that having 15+ patients in my network with covid is 25% of their capability to look after ANY patient requiring an ICU, then they might have a better understanding.  The ICU's are not generally packed, but they are never empty and from memory Ive never seen them less than 50% vacant at any one time.  I have only been into ICU few times during the COVID crisis, and on each occasion have seen at least a few COVID patients.  During this relatively mundane wave, there was a distinct panic about what it could potentially mean if things got out of hand with the exponential growth.

Food for thought.  Politicise this all you like, the hospital networks were struggling at one point, and there was some genuine issues with staffing the beds, irrespective of what people may have thought about hospital capacity.  Nurse to patient ratios are still a thing, and you cant open a bed if there is no one to look after the patient lying in there.

Important post. Further to my previous missive, as part of governments waking up to the reality of pandemics and instituting all that is needed to care for large numbers of ill folks, is to address hospital shortages and ENSURE we're ready for the next one, which could very well be much worse.

[ElwoodBlues1]

I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters.  Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be.

1.  ICU's are literally knife edge stuff.  If you are in one as a patient, you are either gone for all money, or are a slim chance of getting out alive.  They should be renamed Critical care units, but I think they don't want to panic people heading into them which is why they are branded ICU not CCU.

2.  The ICU's are not quick turnaround.  You dont go in one day, and then come out right as rain a couple of days after you aren't critical.  You go in on your death bed, and you end up in there for days on end in a life or death battle.  Sometimes the outcome of either can take days, weeks or months, and from what I understand we do quite well, but its no easy feat to be in an ICU.

3.  There arent as many ICU beds as everyone thinks there are.  I can tell you, that the network I work for, covers a very large catchment area, and based on additional spending we can maximise our ICU's at a grand total of 66 beds in 3 hospitals with emergency departments, and a host of others without any capability....  Food for thought, our catchment area is quite large and would have a couple of million people in it from Metropolitan Melbourne.

Sure, there are other options to flex into temporary setups, and private hospitals of which I am not aware of, but I can tell you now, that if the public understand that having 15+ patients in my network with covid is 25% of their capability to look after ANY patient requiring an ICU, then they might have a better understanding.  The ICU's are not generally packed, but they are never empty and from memory Ive never seen them less than 50% vacant at any one time.  I have only been into ICU few times during the COVID crisis, and on each occasion have seen at least a few COVID patients.  During this relatively mundane wave, there was a distinct panic about what it could potentially mean if things got out of hand with the exponential growth.

Food for thought.  Politicise this all you like, the hospital networks were struggling at one point, and there was some genuine issues with staffing the beds, irrespective of what people may have thought about hospital capacity.  Nurse to patient ratios are still a thing, and you cant open a bed if there is no one to look after the patient lying in there.

Thry, Agree with all of that, older patients come in with routine illness/operations and some quickly develop Pneumonia and its off to ICU and most pass away with or without Covid. The public think that a ventilator is a guarantee to save your life and the easy fix is buy more ventilators, get more beds. If you are on a ventilator the odds are not good and ICU nurses dont grow on trees, they are specially trained, you just cant go and throw grad nurses into a ICU and expect them to cope.
Plus there are bad hospitals and even worse hospitals, the good ones are in short supply and the really bad ones usually exist in the less affluent areas and you also you need to be an advocate for your loved one, anyone who is 85 plus will be a DNR candidate and might not even make it to ICU.