Pelchen's permutations and prognostications

[DJC]

Alleged list management guru, Chris Pelchen, has cast his eye over all 18 lists and he doesn't see a great deal of improvement from us this season as well as a slow climb back up the ladder:

17. CARLTON
It's become a perennial question – will Carlton be any better this year? While there has been much said and written about the Blues in recent years, with most of the commentary being negative, they are on the right track. Rebuilding a player list that had decayed to the extent of Carlton's was always going to be a huge task. Although it's reasonable to query some of the club's list decisions during the past four to five years, their overall direction is sound – albeit it's taking a considerable amount of time to bear fruit. And it's going to take a considerable amount more time. The Blues are still three to four years from being a finals contender again. But with the likes of Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank, Paddy Dow, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher, they are building the foundations of a talented team. The arrival of Mitch McGovern and No.1 draftee Sam Walsh provides even greater reason to believe that the ship has been righted. Expect another challenging year for the Blues in 2019 but look beyond the now and focus on the horizon – it's more than just an oasis.

Movement from 2018 rankings: no movement (17th)
Three-year projected list ranking (2022): 10th

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/ever...50y21.html

If Pelchen's 2018 rankings are any guide, we could finish in the eight 

I suspect that his rankings are based on a fairly superficial analysis but I'm not disappointed at our 17th placed ranking; it's easier to exceed low expectations.

For what it's worth, I reckon we will finish in 14th place and we will be top four in 2022.

[LP]

If your club doesn't draft the players that Pelchen thinks they should he kicks your playing list endlessly.

But I've heard more than once from fairly high up official sources that Pelchen lives on stealing the thunder for hard work done by others. You'd be surprised to hear who the Dawks wouldn't have picked if the Dawks board had listened to Pelchen instead of Buckenara!

[cookie2]

I'm reconciled to the fact that we may need another year to bed in some of our talent but I'll enjoy watching the young guys developing this year. I'm confident we have a sound foundation for the future now. I'm not going to mozz anything by forecasting a ladder position - maybe after I've watched 2 - 3 games. 

[ElwoodBlues1]

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

[flyboy77]

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, but given the quality of our kids - and their ages - our prospective rate of improvement should far exceed all others in the next 1-3 years.

If Harry and weiters come of age this year, for example.....

And remember Setterfield and SPS both hit 21 this year - the former lacks games but is an extreme talent as is Samo, whom from all reports has busted it on the training track....

Sure,we're right in not expecting a lot from 18 or 19 year olds - but blokes in the 20-22 yo bracket (3rd or 4th seasons, often with 50 games + under their belts):

21 Garlett, Jarrod         28 22yr 9mth 3 May 1996 180cm 74kg South Fremantle Midfield
Forward
33 Pickett, Jarrod         17 22yr 5mth 18 Aug 1996 178cm 77kg South Fremantle Forward
45 Goddard, Hugh ® 10 22yr 5mth 24 Aug 1996 197cm 96kg Geelong Falcons Defender
22 Marchbank, Caleb 35 22yr 2mth 7 Dec 1996 193cm 90kg Murray Bushrangers Defender
30 Curnow, Charlie         47 22yr 3 Feb 1997 194cm 91kg Geelong Falcons Forward
44 Owies, Matt ®           0 21yr 10mth 19 Mar 1997 183cm 82kg St Kevins
28 Cuningham, David 16 21yr 10mth 30 Mar 1997 183cm 83kg Oakleigh Chargers Midfield
Forward
7 Kennedy, Matthew 31 21yr 10mth 6 Apr 1997 188cm 89kg Collingullie Ashmont Kapooka Midfield
23 Weitering, Jacob 56 21yr 2mth 23 Nov 1997 195cm 95kg Mount Eliza Football Club Defender
1 Silvagni, Jack         43 21yr 1mth 17 Dec 1997 191cm 89kg Oakleigh Chargers Forward
10 McKay, Harry         15 21yr 1mth 24 Dec 1997 200cm 95kg Gippsland Power Forward
43 Setterfield, Will           2 21yr         5 Feb 1998 190cm 87kg Sandringham Dragons Midfield
Forward
5 Petrevski-Seton, Sam 42 20yr 11mth 19 Feb 1998 180cm 74kg Claremont Midfield
Forward
29 Polson, Cameron 13 20yr 11mth 11 Mar 1998 177cm 76kg Sandringham Dragons Midfield
Forward
26 Macreadie, Harrison 8 20yr 10mth 11 Apr 1998 196cm 91kg Henty Defender
42 LeBois, Kym ®  0 20yr 8mth 22 May 1998 175cm 70kg North Adelaide Forward
25 Fisher, Zac       34 20yr 8mth 15 Jun 1998 175cm 72kg Perth Midfield
Forward
36 Kerr, Pat               4 20yr 6mth 31 Jul 1998 197cm 97kg Oakleigh Chargers Forward
31 Williamson, Tom      15 20yr 2mth 12 Dec 1998 189cm 82kg North Ballarat Rebels Defender
19 Schumacher, Angus 0 19yr 11mth 16 Mar 1999 190cm 84kg Bendigo Pioneers Defender
Midfield
12 De Koning, Tom         2 19yr 7mth 16 Jul 1999 201cm 92kg Dandenong Stingrays Forward


10 first round draft picks in that lot - 7 of those 10 in their respective years, top 10 picks.

Not all will go bang, a few never, and certainly not all at once.

But go bang most of them will - that's what the stats strongly suggest....

And then there's a lad like Fisher who already plays like a seasoned 100 gamer.

[flyboy77]

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

ps finals in 2020 entirely realistic...

[Gointocarlton]

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?

[DJC]

I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?

Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated.  I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended.  If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).

[DJC]

We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, we will only climb the ladder if we improve faster than the likes of Gold Coast, St Kilda and Fremantle, and teams like North, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Sydney fall away.

A change in fortune can be very rapid though, as we've seen in the last three or four seasons.

[Professer E]

The CFC, and Bolton,  would want to throw the masses a bone well before then.... Another four win season,  or the Adelaide pick swap going sour and it will turn nasty,  real nasty,  very quickly.