What time is it?

[cookie2]

Thanks for your honest and unbiased assessment NM. It's good to read something so objective that is not pushing a predetermined agenda.

[Gointocarlton]

Thanks for your honest and unbiased assessment NM. It's good to read something so objective that is not pushing a predetermined agenda.

x2

[PaulP]

Care to elaborate? I’m desperate for more footy discussion.

To be honest, there were a few that I was uncertain on, but tried to remove bias from....it killed me to rate the Scum as having a chance.

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

[Thryleon]

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

Probably because they aren't that good.

But, due to everyone else being a bit Ho hum, they could even go back to back.

Fwiw a couple of years back, cotchin was in Murphy Territory of being the leagues worst captain.

Things can and do change quickly.  A couple of injuries and the Tigers would fall apart rapidly.  Not convinced by them at all.

They aren't like hawthorn or Geelong when they were up.  These two sides oozed class and talent and when they played looked really good.

[PaulP]

Probably because they aren't that good.

But, due to everyone else being a bit Ho hum, they could even go back to back.

Fwiw a couple of years back, cotchin was in Murphy Territory of being the leagues worst captain.

Things can and do change quickly.  A couple of injuries and the Tigers would fall apart rapidly.  Not convinced by them at all.

They aren't like hawthorn or Geelong when they were up.  These two sides oozed class and talent and when they played looked really good.

Teams that aren't that good don't win flags - those teams usually finish bottom 4. Whether they're good enough for a dynasty is a separate issue. They are a textbook example of a champion team. Not dissimilar to the early 2000's Collingwood teams. Lots of B graders, but very disciplined, very hard working, and very accountable.

[Navy Maven]

NM having another close look, I wouldnt rate Hawthorn so lo nor CheatsFC so hight. That is, I cant see Hawthorn falling away that much and I cant see CheatsFC rising much more than they did this year. I agree, they have managed to pick up a few good ones courtesy of there cheating ways. I dont think Saad (HB flanker), Stringer (front runner) and Smith (overrated and injury prone) will make a huge difference.
I would guess Hawthorn will be in the 8 purely because of the wiiley old fox Clarkson. Missing the finals this year would have stung him like mad and will have been stewing over it all summer come round round 1. He and his fellow coaches would have devised a plan to rectify that wrong make no mistake. Time will tell.

Yeah I definitely have my reservations about Essendon, but I can’t deny tha they have some very good players in important positions. Daniher becoming one of the better forwards in the comp is a massive plus for them, Hurley was exceptional last year down back. They have some great kids coming through as well as icing on the cake players like Tippa and Fantasia. Like with a few of these teams, it’ll come down to how a few things fall; if Stringer gets back to his 2015 form and even pushes into the middle, and if a couple more of their high end kids come on, they’re in with a chance.

As for Hawthorn, Burton aside, I don’t see any of their kids really becoming elite. They’ve lost or are losing most of their genuine A Grade talent and don’t have the same quality to replace it. I don’t think that they’ll rebound quicker than most due to the genius of Clarkson. I mean he started the process before others even recognised its need by moving on the likes of Mitchell and Lewis.

[Navy Maven]

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

I think that long term, we are much better placed than Essendon, but looking solely at 2018, they’re in a much better position than us for success this year. What the past couple of years has shown us is that there aren’t teams ‘making up the numbers’ in the finals anymore. Bulldogs weren’t favourite in any of their finals in 2016, but it was them holding up the Cup at the end of it. Richmond in my opinion were not the best team in 2017, in fact going into the finals I would have had 3 teams above them...but again, they had the last laugh. They’re not a team with great depth, they had a lot of ordinary foot soldiers in their Premiership team, but they were hungry and lucky with injuries. If a team like Essendon have the same luck, then certainly they’re in the mix. I mean I still think there are at least 5 or so teams that are more likely, but I can’t disscount them.

[cookie2]

Yeah I definitely have my reservations about Essendon, but I can’t deny tha they have some very good players in important positions. Daniher becoming one of the better forwards in the comp is a massive plus for them, Hurley was exceptional last year down back. They have some great kids coming through as well as icing on the cake players like Tippa and Fantasia. Like with a few of these teams, it’ll come down to how a few things fall; if Stringer gets back to his 2015 form and even pushes into the middle, and if a couple more of their high end kids come on, they’re in with a chance.

As for Hawthorn, Burton aside, I don’t see any of their kids really becoming elite. They’ve lost or are losing most of their genuine A Grade talent and don’t have the same quality to replace it. I don’t think that they’ll rebound quicker than most due to the genius of Clarkson. I mean he started the process before others even recognised its need by moving on the likes of Mitchell and Lewis.

Agree about Essendon. If they are lucky with injuries and the dice rolls their way in a few games they could get lucky, especially with Woosha at the helm as he has plenty of experience as far as finals football goes. As far as the Hawks are concerned, I agree they have a longer term rebuilding plan and this, coupled with the recent loss of Hodge's generalship, will mean possibly some lean times, especially this year.

[PaulP]

I think that long term, we are much better placed than Essendon, but looking solely at 2018, they’re in a much better position than us for success this year. What the past couple of years has shown us is that there aren’t teams ‘making up the numbers’ in the finals anymore. Bulldogs weren’t favourite in any of their finals in 2016, but it was them holding up the Cup at the end of it. Richmond in my opinion were not the best team in 2017, in fact going into the finals I would have had 3 teams above them...but again, they had the last laugh. They’re not a team with great depth, they had a lot of ordinary foot soldiers in their Premiership team, but they were hungry and lucky with injuries. If a team like Essendon have the same luck, then certainly they’re in the mix. I mean I still think there are at least 5 or so teams that are more likely, but I can’t disscount them.

Hmm, I thought the point of this thread was to assess a team's proximity to a flag, not just success in 2018 ? Maybe I misread the premise.

At any rate, there have been teams outside the top echelon in the past that have won a flag, but they are few and far between, and are IMO, statistical aberrations rather than any indication of a new trend. I would be most surprised to see a repeat of the Dogs success any time soon. The concept of "making up the numbers" is still alive and well IMO.

Richmond had luck, as any flag team does, but as I say, they finished top 3, knocked over the Cats and GWS in the H/A, and timed their peak to perfection, knocking over the flag favorites in the GF in an 8 goal demolition.

Tough crowd around here.

[mateinone]

Richmond absolutely deserved their flag and was the best September team I can remember in years.
There were those hear not recognising it during and after the Geelong game, then again against GWS.

Richmond were FAR SUPERIOR to their opposition in September and hence very deserved premiers.
Reminded me a little of the way Brisbane were rarely the best team over 22 weeks during their flags, but were undeniably the best over 25 weeks.

I think Richmond had holes and I think it will be interesting to see how they hold up to the pressure of being chased. But they were (in my mind) as deserved a premiers as I can remember. As much as that makes me feel ill to say