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+--- Thread: 2000 or bust (/thread-3669.html)
2000 or bust - flyboy77 - 03-16-2018
ok. Looking at 2017, to make the 8 not only did you need the wins (12 minimum) you also needed to score about 2000 points or more over the season (22 games). Or 91 points a game. 15 goals. Richmomd scored 1992 in the H & A games.
We scored 1594 points. 71 points a game. We exceeded 91 points only twice in 2017 (with a few others in the 80 point range).
So roughly 400 or so extra points are needed, loosely.
3.5 more goals a game, 1 goal a quarter.
I note we scored 89 and 97 points respectively in the two recent JLT games.
Factors that should improve our scoring (potential) in 2018:
1. A less defensive mindset/system - very evident Bolts has removed the handbrake...
2. A more even, deeper (emerging) midfield - (led by Special K) Cripps, Murph, Kennedy, SPS, Fish, Cuners, Lang, Curnow (x2).
3. Organic development in players - Charlie C (20g in 2017), Levi (34g), Crippa (expect 10+), Harry Mc (the great unknown), SOJ (19g, 2017), Pickett (10 given injury), Fish (10+ expect), Wright (good for 25 odd).
4. New additions - Dow (10 goals +), Lang (15 goals), Garlett (12goals), Kennedy (10 goals).
Looking at the basic numbers, an extra 20 points (3.5 goals) or so a game is not really that much to attain.... in my opinion.
My summation? If Big H steps up and kicks close to 20 goals in 2018 (and/or Charlie goes nuts and kicks 50), we'll make finals.
Bam.
Re: 2000 or bust - crazyjoedevolamk11 - 03-16-2018
Like it Flyboy.....nice and positive, unlike those fools on AFL.com where 5 or 6 of their “expert staff writers” aka Nic Bowen, Matt Thompson, etc tip the Blues for Wooden Spoon >
Haters Gotta Hate
Re: 2000 or bust - PaulP - 03-16-2018
The last time we kicked more than 2000 points for was 2013. Now, I understand we can't and won't stay under 2000 forever, but IMO this isn't the season for it to happen, for reasons as I've previously mentioned.
Re: 2000 or bust - flyboy77 - 03-17-2018
Paul, when it comes to footy, I choose to be a glass half full type and one of these days CFC will surprise us all....
Sure 2019, more likely a better year than 2018, but yuo never know!!
Re: 2000 or bust - Gointocarlton - 03-17-2018
(03-17-2018, 12:26 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Paul, when it comes to footy, I choose to be a glass half full type and one of these days CFC will surprise us all....Agree FB. Under the control of BB and SOS, I’ve gone from extreme pessimist to glass half full. I look forward to climbing the next rung (pun intended) to confident.
Sure 2019, more likely a better year than 2018, but yuo never know!!
Re: 2000 or bust - flyboy77 - 03-17-2018
(03-16-2018, 11:36 PM)PaulP link Wrote:The last time we kicked more than 2000 points for was 2013. Now, I understand we can't and won't stay under 2000 forever, but IMO this isn't the season for it to happen, for reasons as I've previously mentioned.
Where do you find these stats Paul? i'm keen to have a look....
Re: 2000 or bust - PaulP - 03-17-2018
(03-17-2018, 01:44 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Where do you find these stats Paul? i'm keen to have a look....
There's 2 places, both much of a muchness :
1. In wikipedia, type the season you want e.g "2013 AFL season", then look at the final ladder positions. So for example :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_AFL_season#Ladder
2. The AFL website :
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder
Under the word Toyota you will see the word season, and you can choose whichever year you need, only going back to 2001, for some reason.
Re: 2000 or bust - flyboy77 - 03-17-2018
thanks.
Re: 2000 or bust - jeza - 03-17-2018
I am a LOT more optimistic about points scoring having seen our game style in the JLT.
Losing Gibbs won't help as he was good for roughly a goal + half an assist per game.
But Fisher, Dow, Kennedy, SPS and these types look to have some real goal scoring ability from midfield - which is where we really struggled last year. Obviously they're all very young but that is the only real unknown - how long will it take them to come through at AFL level.
SOSOS and Charlie should significantly improve their goals haul this year - Charlie really picked up towards the end of last year.
Jed Lamb has got to be worth more than 6 this year surely?
Re: 2000 or bust - LP - 03-17-2018
(03-17-2018, 03:32 AM)jeza link Wrote:SOSOS and Charlie should significantly improve their goals haul this year - Charlie really picked up towards the end of last year.
Jed Lamb has got to be worth more than 6 this year surely?
Agree about Charlie, not sure about Lamb depends on the roles he is given. But based on JLT form Lamb is due for a bag of goal assists.
Not too sure about SoJ, haven't seen a lot of improvement so far, he looks to be at about the same level. He'll get smarter with experience but he has to improve his physical attributes as well, mostly acceleration to be able to get himself space, otherwise too many of his opportunities will be heavily contested and he won't find much improvement.