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Trumpled (Alternative Leading) - Printable Version

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Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - LP - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 01:40 AM)Mav link Wrote:Here's the study referred to above, published in the New England Journal of Medicine:  Zika Virus Associated with Microcephaly

Microcephaly is not just hard to diagnose in the womb it is hard to diagnose in the living, the pictures most commonly displayed are extreme cases by it comes in the full spectrum of almost zero visual impact to the versions you see on the news. The current situation is clouded by concerns of mis-diagnosis!

The most recent analysis suggests that it's not even clear there has been a spike in cases when mis-diagnosis and positive reinforcement effects are taken into account. Some are concerned that the story broke through / associated with labs that were known to be working on vaccines for Zika. Further reports are "spiking" in regions which would have naturally had Microcephaly cases in the past but had previously reported no cases, the natural rate is somewhere between 1:100 and 1:1000.


Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Mav - 02-12-2016

Which is why the NEJM study is so interesting.  Finding the virus targetting the brain and eyes of an aborted foetus with microcephaly is bracing indeed.  If the Zika virus and microcephaly were just ships passing in the night, you wouldn't expect that.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - LP - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 02:24 AM)Mav link Wrote:Which is why the NEJM study is so interesting.  Finding the virus targetting the brain and eyes of an aborted foetus with microcephaly is bracing indeed.  If the Zika virus and microcephaly were just ships passing in the night, you wouldn't expect that.

It can be easy to confuse cause and effect. But if you count foetal cases of Microephaly and Zika you must also count cases of healthy babies born with Zika and no Microcephaly.

It may be that Zika is a potential cause of Microephaly, it may have always been that way. But that doesn't necessarily mean there really is a spike in Microcephaly cases, or that increased detections of the Zika virus will means an increase in Microcephaly. It may be that a foetus with Microcephaly is more susceptible to Zika, the cause and effect reversed.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - madbluboy - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 02:45 AM)LP link Wrote:healthy babies born with Zika

What?

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - flyboy77 - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 02:45 AM)LP link Wrote:It can be easy to confuse cause and effect. But if you count foetal cases of Microephaly and Zika you must also count cases of healthy babies born with Zika and no Microcephaly.

It may be that Zika is a potential cause of Microephaly, it may have always been that way. But that doesn't necessarily mean there really is a spike in Microcephaly cases, or that increased detections of the Zika virus will means an increase in Microcephaly. It may be that a foetus with Microcephaly is more susceptible to Zika, the cause and effect reversed.

And why now?

Zika's been around a long time?

If the 'issue' is real, perhaps other environmental factors involved too?

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - LP - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 03:04 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:What?

Apparently only a fraction of Zika infections have detectable effects, many people have Zika including expecting mothers and have no effects other than headaches or flu like symptoms. People can carry Zika and not know it.

By the same token, it's expected that there are many more people with microcephaly than are actually diagnosed.

Anyway it best that people read the latest reports being published in Nature and Science and not listen too much to breakfast radio or read too many tabloids.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - LP - 02-12-2016

(02-12-2016, 03:19 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:And why now?

Zika's been around a long time?

If the 'issue' is real, perhaps other environmental factors involved too?

First detected in the 40s.

Why now, the US CDC issued an alert in January warning people not to travel to known infected regions, it wasn't the first outbreak but the press got hold of this and ran with the story.

An environmental factor is more people becoming highly mobile travelers from infected areas. The virus eventually being transported to South America by a host.

We didn't here about it entering the Asia Pacific two years ago, but it did! Wink Universities and Institutes around Australia have been studying it for several years. But when it puts America on the infection list entering via Mexico the world goes berserk.


Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - cookie2 - 02-12-2016

[Image: 57347641-brett-ebert-for-the-power-in-ac...tDkw%3D%3D]

Well his mum obviously wasn't bitten!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Mav - 02-12-2016

And here you have the Zika virus, with its birth control and abortion implications, tied nicely into the climate change debate:

Quote:With at least 80% of those infected showing no symptoms, tracking the disease is extremely difficult. The mosquito species that spreads Zika, Aedes aegypti, has been expanding its range over the past few decades. “It loves urban life and has spread across the entire tropical belt of the planet, and of course that belt is expanding as global warming takes effect,” added Farrar.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/30/zika-virus-health-fears


Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Lods - 02-12-2016

Funny thing... My 19 year old daughter who I didn't think had a great knowledge (or even any interest) of US politics walked past the television the other day as the New Hampshire results came through....and said "Sanders, Yes!"

It's not just the American kids who are taking notice of the old bloke.