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+--- Thread: Goaltracker 2019 (/thread-4198.html)
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Thryleon - 07-11-2019
How does Teagues percentage look with the GWS game included?
How would Bolton's look without said match?
Percentage is a very flaky indicator. One bad game can make it look really bad if you aren't winning well most weeks.
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Lods - 07-11-2019
At the start of the season when you're dealing with small numbers percentages can fluctuate wildly from week to week.
After only 4 games it's the same with Teague's numbers.
Say we win the game this week 100 points to 60 our percentage under Teague will be around 113%
A forty point win will change his percentage by nearly 10 percentage points.
On the other hand if we lose by 60 points to 100 our percentage under Teague will be around 93%
A forty point loss will change the percentage by around 10 percentage points the other way.
Win or lose by 40 points can make a 20point difference in your percentage with small numbers.
Contrast that with a 40 point loss to Essendon in Rd 11 where our percentage went from76.7 to 74.3
The same 40 point loss only resulted in a less than 3% change in percentage.
With bigger 'For and Against' totals (around 1100 to 1300) the margins and big wins and losses don't impact to the same extent as the do when you're dealing with numbers around the 350 to 400 mark
So while we can't put a lot of store in Teague's percentage in isolation at present it will be more comparable after he's had the same 11 games that Bolton had.
It is trending in the right direction at the moment and what can't be denied is that under him it has improved from 74.3% to 81.8%
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - jeza - 07-11-2019
As I said - limited data set under Teague.
But to take the same group of players that Bolton had and produce this for even 4 weeks is certainly a credit to him.
As everyone quite rightly points out it could all fall apart this week - but so far so good.
Smashing the Swans would be handy!
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Lods - 07-18-2019
After 16 games
2016
Goals 166 Behinds 146-(For 1142 - Against- 1448)
Percentage 78.9%
2017
Goals 170 Behinds 141- (For 1161- against- 1411)
Percentage 82.3 %
2018
Goals-141 Behinds - 148 (For- 994 , Against- 1631)
Percentage 60.9%
2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-167 Behinds- 162 (For-1164, Against- 1401)
Percentage-83.1%
Goalkickers
((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)
2017
Casboult 24
Wright 23
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 12
2018
Curnow 27
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12
2019
Harry McKay 20-21-141
Charli Curnow 18-8-116
Mitch McGovern 17-7-109
Jack Silvagni 11-8-74
Michael Gibbons 10-10-70
Patrick Cripps 10-6-66
Levi Casboult 10-6-66
A few minor changes but nothing too dramatic….Picked up a small percentage gain
Our Points For and Points Against, as well as Percentage, are now the best they’ve been to this point of the season since the rebuild began.
Teague watch
First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90
Second 11 games (after 5 games)
Totals
Goals 61 behinds 60 v 58 Goals -60 Behinds
Percentage 104.4 % (For 426, Against 408)
Average
Goals 12.2 behinds 12
For 85.2 Against 81.6
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Lods - 07-24-2019
After 17 games
2016
Goals 176 Behinds 154-(For 1210- Against- 1522)
Percentage 79.5%
2017
Goals 181 Behinds 157-(For 1243- Against- 1523)
Percentage 81.6%
2018
Goals-148 Behinds - 158 (For- 1046 , Against- 1755)
Percentage 59.6 %
2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals- 182 Behinds-171 (For-1263, Against 1476)
Percentage-85.6%
Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)
2017
Casboult 25
Wright 25
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 14
2018
Curnow 28
M Wright 15
McKay 12
Casboult 12
2019
McKay 22-23-155
Curnow 18-8-116
McGovern 17-7-109
Gibbons 11-10-76
Silvagni 11-9-75
Casboult 11-7-73
Cripps 11-6-72
After 17 games we’re within 10 goals of last year’s 22 game total.
Percentage wise we continue the upward trend under Teague... up more than 10% since round 11.
It’s a bit of a dubious comparison because we’ve played different sides and there have been some significant changes but…. had we started the season with the results of the last six weeks we would have been sitting sixth, ahead of current top eight clubs - West Coast Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon and Adelaide.
A ladder conducted over the last six weeks sees us as the 5th most successful club during that period
[b][b]
Teague watch[/b][/b]
First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90
Second 11 games (after 6 games)
Totals
Goals -76 Behinds 69 v 69 Goals -69 Behinds
Percentage 108.7 % (For 525, Against 483)
Average
Goals 12.6 behinds 11.5
For 87.5 Against 80.5
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - jeza - 07-25-2019
Looking even better after last weekend.
2016
Percentage 79.5%
2017
Percentage 81.6%
2018
Percentage 59.6 %
2019
BB: Percentage 74.3 %
Teague: Percentage 108.7 %
Massive credit to Teague - 34% increase in percentage.
Are we equal top 3 over the past 6 weeks?
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - dodge - 07-25-2019
Look forward to this post every week, Lods. Thanks for your work.
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Lods - 07-25-2019
(07-25-2019, 06:03 AM)jeza link Wrote:Massive credit to Teague - 34% increase in percentage.
Are we equal top 3 over the past 6 weeks?
Yep
Equal third-5th on percentage
Brisbane 5-1 (137.65%)
Essendon 5-1 (105.46%)
West Coast 4-2 (122.25%)
Richmond 4-2 (119.44%)
Carlton 4-2 (108.70%)
Bulldogs 4-2 (103.48%)
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - kruddler - 07-25-2019
(07-25-2019, 06:13 AM)Lods link Wrote:Yep
Equal third-5th on percentage
Brisbane 5-1 (137.65%)
Essendon 5-1 (105.46%)
West Coast 4-2 (122.25%)
Richmond 4-2 (119.44%)
Carlton 4-2 (108.70%)
Bulldogs 4-2 (103.48%)
Fun fact...
Someone did a '1 goal margin result reversal' ladder recently.
(That is, take all the games you lost by a goal and under, and call that a win....and take all the games you won by a goal and under and call that a loss.)
And we snuck in the 8!
I was banging on about how unlucky we were in the early stages of 2019 and a couple of things go our way (instead of against) and we are in a completely different situation. Thats proof.
If we didn't have bad luck, we'd have no luck at all!
Also worth pointing out that the ladder above didn't take into account how we were robbed against the pies with free kicks, especially in the last 5 minutes. Or how we simply couldn't kick straight against the swans, and they couldn't miss....
Re: Goaltracker 2019 - Thryleon - 07-25-2019
Some perspective.
We've played gold coast (18th), Melbourne (17th), sydney (15th), freo (11th), brisbane (2nd) and the bulldogs (12th).
I'm glad we are doing better, but so we should be.