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Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - cookie2 - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 03:58 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:The Tank is a bit of an exploration from GWM into the realm of Landcruiser territory but from what I read has ABS/front suspension issues which causes the vehicle to dip down at the front under heavy braking and the rear wheels lift up off the ground...wouldnt want to be towing anything when that happens ?
Not so good!
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - ElwoodBlues1 - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 02:15 AM)LP link Wrote:The main reason why companies like Toyota and Mercedes and BMW are looking towards EV alternatives is that the resource numbers do not stack up.BYD own the battery market and other car companies cant compete and keep costs down down, its complete Chinese domination in the EV world for passenger vehicles and Toyota are admitting now they are targeting the commercial world for hydrogen sales. The Mirai has been a fail due to its high initial cost and lack of refuelling stations...in the USA where they sold around 2K odd they only have refuelling stations in California and they are only good for 50 refills a day each, not sure why those 2k folk bought a Mirai if you cant travel further than California?
The Green economy pushes more and more EVs, Wind and Solar, but to achieve the equivalent of the current energy / transport system we have to increase the mining of copper, lithium and other rare earth elements more than tenfold. It's the elephant in the room nobody is talking about, and ultimately it will be why countries go nuclear to take advantage of existing infrastructure without requiring more copper resource.
A traditional ICE car uses at least 23kg of copper, an EV uses at least 80kg of copper. EVs are currently less than 10% of global vehicles yet they already consume as much as 30% of the available transport copper resource. So to get to anywhere near 100% of global vehicles requires a 300% increase in copper resources just for transport.
Renewables energy sectors are still a minority of global energy, but already the single biggest consumer of copper, already using about 3x more copper than the transport sector. That is just the renewable part, not including infrastructure like the grid.
I read estimates that for renewable SolarPV, Wind and EV to replace existing solutions will require between 500% and 1200% more copper mining globally. That assumes they can find that much resource, at the moment it doesn't exist.
Ultimately, the thing that might force societies hand, could well be kilograms of copper per kilowatt hour.
The USA just uncovered the world's biggest lithium resource, unfortunately it sits in deep salt brines under California's already limited water supply. But even as the world's single biggest resource it only covers about 45% of what the US predicts it will need, so the search goes on. Who and how they will mine that is whole other question, environmental groups are already protesting and it hasn't even started! Yet the same protesting groups demand we close coal and convert to SolarPV, they are obviously deliberately ambivalent to the reality of the limited resource situation, what they demand is a fantasy.
Emission targets set by countries are creeping up to the stage where infrastructure will need to be in place to achieve those targets and most Governments seem to have chosen EV's as their preferred option where they can piggy back onto existing infrastructure and get joe average to help pay for the add ons required by forcing homeowners, passenger vehicle users to buy solar systems, chargers etc and slapping extra charges on power bills, registrations, council rates etc.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/its-time-for-toyota-to-rethink-its-hydrogen-strategy/
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - LP - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 04:28 AM)ElwoodBlues1 date Wrote:Emission targets set by countries are creeping up to the stage where infrastructure will need to be in place to achieve those targets and most Governments seem to have chosen EV's as their preferred option where they can piggy back onto existing infrastructure and get joe average to help pay for the add ons required by forcing homeowners, passenger vehicle users to buy solar systems, chargers etc and slapping extra charges on power bills, registrations, council rates etc.There is a reason why massive factories are going up all over the globe for hydrogen transport, once the infrastructure is there to fill trucks the cars will follow, it's only a matter of time. Add to that France's recent hydrogen discovery, which can effectively fuel France and Germany combined for many decades to come, and I think longer term you'll see a change.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/its-time-for-toyota-to-rethink-its-hydrogen-strategy/
As for BYD, it's a very short term thing, the long term outlook for EV is rising cost as copper and rare earth become scarcer, while the current high / expensive cost of hydrogen options are all forecast to fall. If I was a BYD investor I'd be making the short term profit and bailing out before the shizen hits the fan. btw., On a recent OS trip, I had a close look at the new BYD's at a shopping centre promo, and cheap isn't how I'd describe them relative to the available options in the same region, to me the new Ionic still seemed to be better value.
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - northernblue - 03-04-2024
You’re still not addressing the hydrogen conversion costs LP.
I don’t care which tech “wins” but right now ev are ahead by the length of Flemington straight and that isn’t going to change in the next 10-20 years.
Battery’s will become cheaper, they will charge quicker and likely go farther, Hydrogen is a long, long way behind.
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - LP - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 11:38 AM)northernblue date Wrote:You’re still not addressing the hydrogen conversion costs LP.The cost per kilogram varies greatly with the source as you know, but regardless of the source it's user pays in the same way petrol or diesel is user pays, there won't be subsidies.
I don’t care which tech “wins” but right now ev are ahead by the length of Flemington straight and that isn’t going to change in the next 10-20 years.
Battery’s will become cheaper, they will charge quicker and likely go farther, Hydrogen is a long, long way behind.
In the case of batteries history says otherwise, because the limits are laws of physics defining the ultimate energy density. This repeated claim of far greater energy densities is a fantasy, more energy basically means bigger heavier batteries, there are no miracles coming for lithium. The everyday experience of users on phones or laptops do not apply, the batteries haven't change much, the electronics has. The better analogy are power tool batteries, more AH means bigger batteries, more copper, more lithium.
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - kruddler - 03-04-2024
(03-04-2024, 11:38 AM)northernblue link Wrote:You’re still not addressing the hydrogen conversion costs LP.
I don’t care which tech “wins” but right now ev are ahead by the length of Flemington straight and that isn’t going to change in the next 10-20 years.
Battery’s will become cheaper, they will charge quicker and likely go farther, Hydrogen is a long, long way behind.
The time frame is up for debate, but that's about it.
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe. We can't run out.
It is cleaner than anything we currently run. The only problem is the conversion costs....which will be solved, just a matter of when. This is where the government needs to come in!
Alternatively, batteries are a temporary solution. Like oil, the materials are finite and it's just a matter of when they run out or when it is no longer financially viable to continue down that path......should be environmentally as well, but $s trump the environment as we all know.
Temporary might mean 20 years, but there is an end date stamped on it, but it's a changing date that we can somewhat control by our actions.
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - northernblue - 03-04-2024
My understanding is that with ev you can buy or generate a KWh put it in your car and drive, that is your cost.
With Hydrogen you need 4-5 times the volume of electricity, that is its cost… currently.
It’s a long way behind.
Even if every petrol station in the country became a Hydrogen dispenser overnight, who would buy it at 4-5 times the cost of a volt ?
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - LP - 03-05-2024
(03-04-2024, 09:12 PM)kruddler date Wrote:The only problem is the conversion costs....which will be solved, just a matter of when. This is where the government needs to come in!Yes, it's the very same argument as SolarPV and Wind energy. There is irony in some green energy groups arguing against hydrogen subsidies, when they historically scaled up SolarPV and Wind off the back of government subsidies, the very same process will apply to the hydrogen economy and probably nuclear.
SolarPV and Wind have no high moral ground regarding infrastructure, at the moment they use a grid built and maintained by coal. Some of them have deals to avoid the full overhead contributions until beyond 2030, so they are hell bent on making a profit before the costs kick in.
Most of the arguments against hydrogen economy or other low or zero carbon alternatives are based on the politics of corporate greed, those who already have their hand in the lolly jar and refuse to share, it exposes just how disingenuous they are about zero carbon!
No matter what you hear or read, hydrogen and / or nuclear is eventually coming to a town near you, and the real race is to get those industries established and supporting the existing grid until fusion hits town. What does fusion run on, of course the answer is hydrogen or it's isotopes. That's the hydrogen economy of the future!
btw., What does SolarPV run on, we'll as far as I know that's hydrogen fusion courtesy of the sun!
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - kruddler - 03-05-2024
(03-04-2024, 09:16 PM)northernblue link Wrote:My understanding is that with ev you can buy or generate a KWh put it in your car and drive, that is your cost.
With Hydrogen you need 4-5 times the volume of electricity, that is its cost… currently.
It’s a long way behind.
Even if every petrol station in the country became a Hydrogen dispenser overnight, who would buy it at 4-5 times the cost of a volt ?
Assuming your figures are correct, they are only correct based on current market and current technologies.
Look at it from both directions. Eventually, EVs and the materials required to make them, will become scarce and supply and demand dictates those costs will increase.
Alternatively, through more R+D, hydrogen costs will come down once better tech is worked out.
On top of that, governments can dictate which direction we go by adding subsidies or taxes for or against certain techs to bridge that gap further.
If you think the government is going to lose out on the money it gets on taxing fuel because people are shifting towards EV, you're not thinking it through. As has been suggested elsewhere, there will be additional taxes brought in eventually, potentially due to weights of vehicles and the damage it does on roads.....EVs would cop it, hydrogen would not.
People need to look at the end game in all of this, not just 5 years from now.
Hydrogen will not run out.
Everything else will run out before then.
Its in our best interests to do everything we can do to use Hydrogen as much as possible, sooner or later, 'big money' will realise this,
Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread - northernblue - 03-05-2024
(03-05-2024, 01:35 AM)LP link Wrote:btw., What does SolarPV run on, we'll as far as I know that's hydrogen fusion courtesy of the sun!
Who the hell cares ?
Stop twaffling!
Let’s just get those stinking, noisy, personal and global health hazard ice vehicles off the roads.
They should be consigned to the “What were we thinking ?” aisle of the national museum, not held up as some virtuous saviour of humanity.
And down the track if a better, cleaner energy than solar and battery storage comes along then that’s even better news.