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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 12-30-2021

(12-30-2021, 05:10 AM)capcom link Wrote:The staffing shortages is (for mine) a great concern.  Who wouldn't suffer burn out at the rate they've been going for 2 years.  And what we know now are the exploding cases of recent days, not those yet to come to light.
ICU nurses dont earn that much more than ordinary RN's and considering the training/schooling required vs the pressure you are under you are relying on the goodwill and care factor to keep them in the job but that only stretches so far.
You also dont get many ICU trained nurses working for agencies, ditto for Cardiac and the other specializations. Agencies will send out an ordinary RN as a fill in but they often dont have the specialization required and it shouldnt be allowed but it happens.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-31-2021

(12-30-2021, 11:53 PM)ElwoodBlues1 date Wrote:ICU nurses dont earn that much more than ordinary RN's and considering the training/schooling required vs the pressure you are under you are relying on the goodwill and care factor to keep them in the job but that only stretches so far.
You also dont get many ICU trained nurses working for agencies, ditto for Cardiac and the other specializations. Agencies will send out an ordinary RN as a fill in but they often dont have the specialization required and it shouldnt be allowed but it happens.
Anyway EB1, that same report I read about available ICU beds dropping mentioned that to reach Australia's emergency ICU bed cap, which doubles the number of available ICU beds, you need an extra 40k fulltime ICU nurses, it's not going to happen, it's a fantasy! For each 24x7 ICU bed, you must need about 20 staff to both directly service the bed and to maintain supply chain and support logistics / services!

For example, they said if every Australia Emergency Surge ICU bed was occupied, there are not enough technicians available across the country to keep all the gadgets running for more than a month or so! They would have to change the rules / laws about compliance and calibration to make it work, but that then opens them(hospitals/staff) up to the opportunistic lawyer to litigate when things go wrong!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 12-31-2021

(12-30-2021, 11:28 PM)LP link Wrote:Just a couple of weeks back the media laughed at and derided that scientist in NSW who predicted 25K cases a day, most of us including myself thought he was talking worst case!

Now they are saying if they can't get the brakes on 150k a day is a possibility in NSW, God help the hospitals and staff, Australia is not equipped to deal with this, never was and never will be!

Doherty institute modelling suggested 250,000, not 25,000.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-31-2021

(12-31-2021, 12:22 AM)capcom date Wrote:Doherty institute modelling suggested 250,000, not 25,000.
And that means the sceptics were right? :o

If this was a closest to the pin there was only one winner, and it's not the naysayers, the naysayers didn't even make it through the heats! Wink

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 12-31-2021

(12-31-2021, 01:30 AM)LP link Wrote:And that means the sceptics were right? :o

If this was a closest to the pin there was only one winner, and it's not the naysayers, the naysayers didn't even make it through the heats! Wink

All I'm saying is the 250,000 is a highly unlikely figure. 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 12-31-2021

(12-31-2021, 01:54 AM)capcom link Wrote:All I'm saying is the 250,000 is a highly unlikely figure. 
Agree the Doherty modelling always seems extreme imho..

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 12-31-2021

Australia only did 277,000 tests yesterday and that's turning people away. 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - kruddler - 12-31-2021

(12-31-2021, 02:35 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:Australia only did 277,000 tests yesterday and that's turning people away. 
Thats the thing that the modelling doesn't take into account.

Its all nice and pretty on a computer simulation, but reality simply cannot push through enough tests to confirm/deny people so the higher the numbers the more inaccurate they actually are.

The other day when our positive cases were down just happened to coincide with testing centres being closed down because they couldn't push through enough people. The majority of those people were simply getting tested for travel reasons.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-31-2021

(12-31-2021, 03:53 AM)kruddler date Wrote:Thats the thing that the modelling doesn't take into account.
Agreed, in fact they already concede that the real case number is far higher.

I can't disagree with that claim because the modelling is spot on in regard to predicting 15% of tests will be positive but will represent only 30% to 50% of cases in the wider community.

So by extrapolation, to get to 250K confirmed positive cases in a day you would have to test 1.7M people, which is clearly not ever going to happen in Australia! We are not even sustainably meeting the current demand which is about 1/5th of that!

There is also a bit of an assumption, the media has gone quiet on variants like Omicron is the last, that is a big if!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Lods - 12-31-2021

In Queensland they opened up despite a new variant to which they weren't certain vaccines gave adequate protection.

Now they've scrapped the need for an exit isolation test one day after it was decided on.
Folks should 'go to the beach' rather than get tested
Now they're sending 'close contact' health workers back to work.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-healthcare-staff-who-are-close-contacts-to-be-ordered-back-to-work-20211231-p59l6t.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0gOeiSbE4_00wn0cQ3kPVxr9vUVjS-21wzZgdkx2l_qeBgPhD4k7ZDYio#Echobox=1640937812


And it came to pass, that at Christmas 2021 the folks in charge said WTF...and gave up.