![]() |
|
CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version +- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com) +-- Forum: Social Club (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-6.html) +--- Forum: Blah-Blah Bar (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-23.html) +--- Thread: CV and mad panic behaviour (/thread-4651.html) Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
|
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 12-21-2021 I'd put them out of business if they're that inept at modelling. Wackheads Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - cookie2 - 12-21-2021 Do we have a drama pandemic? Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-21-2021 The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 12-21-2021 Doherty modelling has proved inaccurate and tends to be worst case scenario. Governments like them that way to help sell the idea they are doing a good job dealing with Covid by always being well under those extreme targets imho. Not sure if those figures include u12s either. Those numbers point to 8000 icu cases over the time frame used which would collapse the hospital system. Think we need to go back to masks, reducing crowd numbers, and limiting arrivals but not go into a mad panic. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 12-21-2021 (12-21-2021, 09:22 PM)Mav link Wrote:The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK. That sounds more realistic. We always knew when we opened up that the numbers were going to shoot up. Hopefully when we're 80% triple dosed they stop broadcasting the numbers and just give the ICU and death figures. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-21-2021 Help might be on the way! Melbourne researchers trial use of common blood-thinning drug heparin to combat COVID-19, abc.net.au. Quote:Nearly two years later, with the help of researchers at Melbourne, Monash and Oxford Universities, his team has been able to replicate international findings that heparin can block the transmission of COVID-19 and prevent infection. Quote:Director of the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre at Monash University, Michelle McIntosh, has spent the past 20 months working on the best possible formulation for the nasal spray. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 12-21-2021 Irrespective of where you sit on covid, our hospitals run as lean as possible at the best of times. They know how many are coming, what demographics, why they are likely to come and have planned to within a degree of additional capacity if and when required. Covid has the ability to cause bedlam to that. Think of what happened supply chain wise last year. Everything is geared to a just in time and just enough for manufacturing. Likewise health care to make it as resource efficient as possible. Anyone ever seen a hospital waiting room empty? 13 years ive been in 2 different health services and the one take away i have for everyone is whilst the model is scalable its not easy to do so for a variety of factors. Add a pandemic with even a moderate kick up in care and presentations and you result in a lot of issues. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Professer E - 12-21-2021 Speak to people in various industries and retail - supply chains were/are at close to collapse eg the Adblue debacle. Seen the empty seatainer farms at Altona etc? Just handling and moving stuff ATM is difficult. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-22-2021 (12-21-2021, 09:22 PM)Mav date Wrote:The Public Health Unit of the University of NSW predicted 25,000 new cases a day in NSW by the end of January (while noting the prediction doesn't factor in booster shots). Bracing though these predictions might be, they highlight what exponential growth means. Another way of seeing the same phenomenon is by looking at the huge spike in actual daily figures from the UK.All the models have to be judged in a frame of reference for the model, for example some are "if all restrictions are removed", while others base themselves on "restrictions as currently applied" and adopted. The media just lump all the reporting and modelling in as "like for like" but it isn't, it's not the epidemiologists that are confused or in error, it's the media and also how the media is manipulated for political purposes. But it's pretty easy to cut through all that spin if you choose to do so! The media will take a worst case scenario and report it as the peak and infer a high probability, when it reality it's the peak with a very low probability. All the predictions fall on a bell curve of some sort, even when you see a hyperbolic or parabolic curve it's usually just a subsection of a larger bell curve. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-22-2021 Yep, in this case the modelling assumes no attempts at suppressing spread. That means it's a worst-case scenario. Ordinarily you'd think that means it's ridiculous as governments will be forced to act. But who knows what will happen in NSW? Perrotet seems committed to ditching any restrictions. And such predictions are a useful counter to those who say we should just let it rip and learn to live with the virus. They're in a bizarre situation of saying "Don't worry about those dire predictions as the Govt won't let it rip" and then later saying that the interventions were unnecessary and useless and we should have just let it rip. |