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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 12-17-2021

(12-17-2021, 06:38 AM)Mav link Wrote:So, Ch7 News claims that hospitalisations for Covid are surging. But didn't the armchair epidemiologists assure us that wouldn't happen? Seems they're about as reliable as armchair recruiters, selectors and coaches ...

Who knows.  Apparently a high rate of vaccination doesn't work either. 



Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-17-2021

Define "doesn't work". You don't need to be a salesman on a shopping channel to figure out "It keeps you alive" is a pretty good marketing slogan.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-17-2021

The ATAGI statement, hot off the presses: ATAGI statement on Omicron variant.

And an interesting and cautious article in the Intelligencer:  And Now for the Good News About Omicron.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 12-17-2021

Sutton believes ICU admissions have peaked and 90 percent are unvaccinated.
Fatality rates for ICU cases under 70 are 0.15 per cent.
Over 70 is 14.8 percent.




Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-18-2021

A UK study suggests that there's not much evidence Omicron results in less severe symptoms than Delta. It's less optimistic in that regard than the South African data.

It's true that it's a preliminary finding and we'll obtain more clarity as time goes on, but it's a big red flag. 

Dr Robert Wachter, the Chair of the University of California Medical Department, notes that simple mathematics means that Omicron would have to be far milder than Delta to offset its greater transmissibility and immune evasion. He considers that the UK study suggests Omicron will cause havoc in the US hospital system as a result but notes that there's some evidence from South Africa that it may burn itself out after a couple of months. He advocates hunkering down while that happens and getting the booster to ensure one's immunity is as high as it can be. He says he'll be wearing N95 masks and avoiding indoor parties or restaurants when he can't be sure whether others are fully vaccinated (and in this regard he means not only having 2 doses but also the booster).

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-18-2021

(12-18-2021, 03:33 AM)Mav date Wrote:Dr Robert Wachter, the Chair of the University of California Medical Department, notes that simple mathematics means that Omicron would have to be far milder than Delta to offset its greater transmissibility and immune evasion. He considers that the UK study suggests Omicron will cause havoc in the US hospital system as a result but notes that there's some evidence from South Africa that it may burn itself out after a couple of months.
Yes, the devil is always in the detail, let's hope that last assertion is correct.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 12-18-2021

Losing the hyperbole for a moment, wherever you stand on covid here is a snapshot at next year for us in Melbourne. 

We have Liverpool who lost 2 players from their starting lineup on Friday morning our time and 1 from the bench because they returned a positive result to a lateral flow test.

Last night our time 6 premier league games were scheduled to go ahead and only 1 ended up getting played.

Irrespective of vaccine status (Jurgen klopp has come out on record stating his team is 100% double vaccinated at Liverpool or near enough meaning that there is likely the odd exception, and some have boosters) yet he is losing players and the competition is being shut down anyway.

Vaccination serves only one purpose.  Protection against serious illness and as we get more variants that might be a problem too. 

This isn't a pro anti or whatever post.


This is one to highlight that some of the stuff we do has no real common sense attached to it.  I was in the northern rivers area of nsw last week and on Wednesday they relaxed restrictions from check in and show proof of vaccination (way more on to it than melbourne) to walk around as you please no mask, no checking in, no proof of vaccination.  They are still doing more prophylactic testing than we are.

I dont have the answers to anything and I'm not pretending to, but this isn't going to go away, and next year we are likely facing disruptions again unless we change our testing from exposure to clinical impact.  I dont see the benefit in testing everyone for the sniffles or every time they are at an exposure site whilst our hospitalisation remains low and we have so many protected by vaccination.

Keep in mind I know how many patients are being monitored in isolation when I say this too.



Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 12-18-2021

Doctors push for stronger action to quash Omicron outbreaks. The Age.
Quote:The Omicron variant is spreading so quickly that experts fear soaring cases may overwhelm hospitals and cause mass illness and death, even if the strain is found to be significantly milder than other COVID-19 variants.

Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid has urged state governments including Victoria to use a combination of proven measures such as masks and social distancing as well as vaccination to flatten the new wave of COVID-19 infections.

He joined many infectious diseases experts now warning that failure to urgently take simple steps to reduce the spread of Omicron could result in the need for lockdowns or other drastic measures later.

Quote:“I feel a bit of a sense at the moment that we’ve got our heads in the sand a little bit about what’s happening with Omicron,” Professor Trauer said.

“We need to shift our mindset towards realising that we not be heading for a normal summer, particularly in places like New South Wales and Victoria.”

Quote:University of Sydney infectious diseases paediatrician Robert Booy, who has previously supported decisions made by the NSW government, said: “The restrictions in NSW are being unwound too quickly. We are now ideologically driven and the public health advice has become secondary.”

Not a great time for NSW to have a Premier from the religious right.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-19-2021

(12-18-2021, 10:48 PM)Mav date Wrote:Not a great time for NSW to have a Premier from the religious right.
Parrotsay is a fundamentalist Christian nuffy, not dissimilar to Scomo, they have faith that fate is always in the hands of God and that God saves the righteous, so do I presume they think everyone dying is somehow immoral?

But from my school days I remember hearing a reading that went something like, "God helps those who help themselves!", I think it was intended to infer God rewards those with a work ethic! But I think Parrotsay takes that literally, and thinks it means each for their own!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 12-19-2021

The problem with Omicron isn't the severity it's the rate of transmission, that ugly R[sub]0[/sub] value keeps popping up it's head again!

We know vaccines only protect somewhere between 85% and 90% of recipients, that means despite vaccination our hospitals can be overwhelmed in very little time at all if suitable measures are not taken to slow the spread.

Australia can't keep the effects of COVID out by closing it's borders or stopping flights, that just transfers the pain into a different form or time. People keep worrying about their morning coffee and the inability to go out for brunch at the café, when they should be worrying about what will happen in Indonesia or China if Omicron progresses unchecked, and how the desperation of nearly 2 Billion people will affect Australia.