(12-13-2021, 04:49 AM)LP link Wrote:It's to do with the level of viral load and viral shedding relative to what level of virus you have to take up to have a good chance of being infected.

Can I offer some simplistic numbers to explain the chance/risk concept because I do not know the real figures, if so read on?

Let's say you need to take on a viral load of 1,000 to have a chance of being infected, but a vaccinated person might only be shedding a load of 100, they are giving you 1/10th of a chance of being infected. This is per unit time/exposure. An unvaccinated person might be shedding 100,000, you still only need 1,000 to have a chance but now that one contact is giving you 100 chances to get infected. In ratio that makes you 1000x more likely to get the virus off the person shedding 100,000 versus the person shedding 100, from the same level of exposure.

btw., How much virus and bacteria can you shed? When I asked this of an associate in the field they mentioned that a healthy person sheds about 50,000 virus or bacteria particles with every deep breath, while simply coughing and/or sneezing can shed 10x to 50x more!

Now think about these figures and how the vaccine providers might calculate efficacy, where does that 95% or 97% efficacy figure come from, knowing that shedding is part of the calculation it clear how these ratios can relate to deliver vastly different outcomes!

PS; I want to be clear about this because naysayers will latch onto the figures, I do not know the real numbers. I've used powers of 10 to simplify the explanation, it may be that the real world numbers are 3, 30 and 3000 or 15, 150 and 15000, whatever they are isn't important it's the relationship between them. The ratios may even be non-linear requiring the use of exponents, roots and complex numbers (The reason why I used the term simplistic rather than imaginary!) Also the term "a chance" might be 50/50, or 60/40, or 40/60, etc., etc..

(12-13-2021, 05:24 AM)Lods date Wrote:Let's for a minute say we go with your figures.
What happens when a mutated variant comes into play for which a vaccine does not offer the same protection?
If the Omicron takes off it is liable to displace the currently dominant Delta.
As I said we can only go with the best current advice (that's my own personal position) but it seems to me the covid is staying one step ahead.

(12-13-2021, 05:32 AM)LP link Wrote:But at the moment the game remains as stated, and the vaccines still have efficacy.

(12-13-2021, 05:41 AM)Lods date Wrote:...and that's kind of at the root of what troubles me.
Are we playing last week's game when the real worry is the game ahead?

(12-13-2021, 04:36 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:Comparing someone who doesn't want to get vaccinated to someone getting sloshed and getting behind the wheel is beyond reaching.

(12-13-2021, 11:33 PM)LP link Wrote:Norway bans the booze, like we have things to complain about! :o