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+--- Thread: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide (/thread-6458.html)
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - LP - 04-14-2024
(04-13-2024, 11:05 AM)Gointocarlton date Wrote:I would have liked to see TDK go at it all day with OBrien. TDK and Pitto never really settled in to work him over. I personally Never want to see the two of them play together again, just my view.It's untenable for these guys to go solo for a whole season and be right to go for the finals, they need to share the load at times with the target of being fresh and ready for finals.
It's as much about managing players through the season as it is about specific game day tactics.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - kruddler - 04-14-2024
(04-13-2024, 10:15 PM)Lods link Wrote:Just on the two- ruck situation. It’s not as cut and dried as some believe. The replacement of a ruck/tall with a small mid-field running player has to be viewed in terms of plusses and minuses.
The gain of the running player must be seem in terms of the cost of what you lose by omitting the tall/ruck. There may be an advantage…but the gap may not be as huge as we may think. Pittonet gave us a bit especially early on…but yes, it may have cost us later in the game.
This is always the debate, and it is clearly not as difficult as some are trying to make out.
TDK rucks for 75% game time when sole ruck. He played 75% game time when he has a backup ruck. He doesnt play more or less, just the position he played.
Harry didn't get a chance to ruck and as a result, went missing for large parts of the game. Despite kicking more goals than normal, he had less influence on the game than more recent efforts. This is a knock on for playing that second ruck.
I've already shown that a ruck took up a spot on the bench for 3/4's of the game. That 75% game time is a full time mid....on light duties - eg Walsh had 76% first game back, Cripps, Hewett, 79%, 80%.
Pitto was off the ground a full quarter more than anyone else (besides injured/subbed players) and TDK was actually next for least amount of game time.
It puts more on the shoulders of others as a result, and the benefit we get from it is not worth it.
Pitto had 6 clearances, only beaten by Walsh (8 ) and Cripps (7). He even kicked a goal. Put Cerra back in the side and he'd get the same amount of clearances (if not more), more possessions and is more likely to kick a goal most weeks as well.
So what benefit did we get from Pitto? A few extra hitouts to advantage....most likely leading to clearances.....which could've been equalled by having another pure midfielder in the team.
So what were the disadvantages....more gametime required by others, less run and pressure around the ball.....which is our strength.
Its nothing against Pitto, same could be said for TDK. Either play Pitto for the whole game, or play TDK for the whole game. No point playing both.
There were 97 ruck contests yesterday.
Including the ball hitting the deck and getting a clearance, each one of them probably takes about 10 seconds on average to work itself out. That equates to just over 16 minutes of game time. What benefit are we getting from the 2 rucks for the remaining 104 minutes of game time? Especially since they one of them are on the bench for 76minutes of that time.
The numbers just don't stack up.
The biggest plus is 'wearing the ruck down'. Which i get and i agree with.
However, our midfield is so good, we can go in there with Jack Silvagni, Harry McKay, Lewis Young, and still draw level (or better) with the clearances. So how much benefit is 'wearing the ruck down' really giving us?
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - pinot - 04-14-2024
All teams in top four even top six play with one ruck with a relieving ruck. TDK plays 75% of the game with Harry winning some hit outs and clearances that frees up his game.
Disrupted our form by changing formation that took away our run in transition. It was lost by the selection committee.
No fault of Pitto btw...but can't afford to take away our run in transition.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - Baggers - 04-14-2024
As much as we'd like this year to be 17, based on what we have delivered so far this year, it aint so. Media comparisons of us with Rottingwood of last year -- come from behind narrow wins -- hasn't helped, in fact its probably fuelled unrealistic expectations. All season I've been worried about how we win.
It's been great that we've been winning, but it's the way we've been winning - just. Willed over the line. And if Charles doesn't pop up with a 2-4 goal burst of brilliance, we're rooted. That's what concerns this little black duck more than anything. Too nice, still? Can't kill off a side when in front... why? Got ahead of ourselves?
Our wins seemed to have lacked authority. And so much has depended on our classy individuals. At our best we see an attitude of 'hunting'... everyone hunting, but that's evaporated. We seem reactive, lacking fierceness and relentless, consistent pressure. Still with the lapses. We let other sides in... and that's consistent. We accept that other sides will have their time but this seems to serve as an excuse (for failure to win stronger). It's as if we're willing to coast for 3 quarters then come home with a wet sail and another meritorious narrow win.
And we wondered how we would deal with the expectations attached to what we should achieve in 2024, well, we can see it rather clearly.
Personnel. Yes, we have injuries but we had injuries in games and our best missing when we were flying last year and found a way to win, and win well. If there is a mitigation it would be our forward line, a 2 star reliance. Too many small forwards just not delivering. Specifically, Fantasia & small Durds. And let's not get started on our glaring need for a third taller forward. Despite the injuries I hope our selection this week is not conservative... a shake-up is needed. Fingers crossed there are a few shining lights in today's Magoos. And those who suggest TDK might be a worthwhile experiment in defense... I agree.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - cookie2 - 04-14-2024
We were turning the ball over far too often coming out of defence. This went on for the whole game and imo was a major factor in our loss. Pleased though with the return of Sammy but looks like Saad will be missing for a while.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - pertz - 04-14-2024
Most of the key points covered by the knowledgeable supporters on this forum.
My main takeaways from the game:
1. Lack of leg speed/line breakers means the ball often gets to the forward line slowly or from a kick under pressure meaning we rely on CC or H to take a big pack grab against multiple defenders who have peeled off their man to support. Very predictable to the opposition.
2. As Kingy & Lyon noted, we work too hard for our goals because of 1) above and we don't lower the eyes/and or forwards not leading to space. Compare our forward entries to the open spaces that Adelaide's forwards operated in.
3. Our small forwards not up to scratch especially Fantasia. Must be dropped.
4. Defence off today due to injuries, matches and lack of pressure from midfield. Refer 1) lack of leg speed required to chase some of Adelaide's line breakers.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - madbluboy - 04-14-2024
Why do small forwards always get the blame?
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - tonyo - 04-14-2024
(04-14-2024, 02:01 AM)Baggers date Wrote:Personnel. Yes, we have injuries but we had injuries in games and our best missing when we were flying last year and found a way to win, and win well. If there is a mitigation it would be our forward line, a 2 star reliance. Too many small forwards just not delivering. Specifically, Fantasia & small Durds. And let's not get started on our glaring need for a third taller forward. Despite the injuries I hope our selection this week is not conservative... a shake-up is needed. Fingers crossed there are a few shining lights in today's Magoos. And those who suggest TDK might be a worthwhile experiment in defense... I agree.We really need a mobile third marking option in the forward line, because banging it long to McKay and Curnow remains ultra predictable, and good teams can dry up our scoring very easily. Martin kind of covered that last year, but Owies and the other smalls are not quite up to it or strong enough overhead. I mean someone like a Fritsch, Hayward, Henry, Zac Bailey.
Maybe once we a full compliment of defenders available, we should try Brodie Kemp there?
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - madbluboy - 04-14-2024
We scored 98 points.
Re: AFL Rd 5 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Adelaide - LP - 04-14-2024
(04-13-2024, 10:15 PM)Lods date Wrote:Pittonet gave us a bit especially early on…but yes, it may have cost us later in the game.Only because of injuries, but that can happen for any position on the ground.
Fans seem oblivious to the risk of a single point of failure, which is the one ruck scenario, at least with Mids you have multiple points of failure so it's much easier to cover the loss of one.
If anything perhaps when we brought in Pitto we picked the wrong Sub, because we lost one HBF and it basically smashed our structure. Then we had a bunch of slower Mid types trying to become lockdown HBFs, or forcing mismatches on players like Rankine and Keays with slower heavier bodies, it's happened twice now, the Crows are making our MC look silly. The Crows almost scored at will despite a pretty equal battle between Weiters and Walker.
(btw., Williams best game for us I suspect, he tried to cover them all and never stopped working.)
On TDK solo, it's bizarre that fans want us to take TDK solo into a game against an opponent who has basically dominated him more than once, it's like they have no memory of the past.
Was BigH used in the centre at all yesterday, I don't recall seeing it?
(Perhaps BigH getting ironed out the week before put the wind up the MC, there is that risk again, a season impacting risk not just one game!)