+- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com)
+-- Forum: Princes Park (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: Robert Heatley Stand (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-14.html)
+--- Thread: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide (/thread-4429.html)
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - Thryleon - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 12:21 AM)kruddler link Wrote:Phillips is severely underrated IMO.
He might not be able to hunt the ball like Kreuzer does, but lets face it....who can Nic Nat, Grundy and Gawn aside (the elite).
However, Phillips is a better mark than Kreuzer. I reckon he's a better kick at goal too. 54% vs 45% in Phillips favour.
He's had just as many injuries as Kreuzer has, but has shown he can perform when having an extended run at it.
His ruck craft is very good.
Both Phillips and Kreuzer win 40% of their ruck battles.
However Phillips is better with his taps, 33% are hitouts to advantage.
Compared to Kreuzers 25%
What does that mean in real world terms?
Say your ruckman gets 24 hitouts a game.
Both Phillips and Kreuzer will get their hands on 10 of them first.
But with Phillips 8 of them will go to our advantage.
Only 6 of them will go to our advantage from Kreuzer.
You'd think that this basically translates to 2 extra clearances per game from our mids with Phillips.
Kreuzer gets more clearances per game than Phillips does, but only by 1.
So ruck wise, we are 1 clearance better when rucking with Phillips than we are with Kreuzer.
Phillips also has more agro than Kreuzer.
It doesn't help that Phillips opponents have been best on ground so far this year when he has played which is the fact you have ignored here.
I am thinking we should upgrade Kreuzer, and keep him as the backup for our new first choice ruckman.
Phillips drops to 4th choice behind De Koning.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - kruddler - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 04:49 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:It doesn't help that Phillips opponents have been best on ground so far this year when he has played which is the fact you have ignored here.
I am thinking we should upgrade Kreuzer, and keep him as the backup for our new first choice ruckman.
Phillips drops to 4th choice behind De Koning.
Subjective.
I didn't point out that Kreuzer was made Witts' b!tch last week either.
I'm not suggesting either of them are elite and will win on any given day, just based on output Kreuzer is not necessarily better than Phillips.
Kreuzers best > Phillips best.
Kreuzers average =< Phillips average.
Moneyball.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - Thryleon - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 06:16 AM)kruddler link Wrote:Subjective.
I didn't point out that Kreuzer was made Witts' b!tch last week either.
I'm not suggesting either of them are elite and will win on any given day, just based on output Kreuzer is not necessarily better than Phillips.
Kreuzers best > Phillips best.
Kreuzers average =< Phillips average.
Moneyball.
Its not really subjective.
3 matches in 2019.
vs Richmond in round 1:
Phillips 9 disp0sals, 3 marks, 27 hit outs, 8 tackles (is amazing), Nankervis 3 goals, 17 disposals, 34 hit outs, 2 Marks, 2 takles. I think Richmond may have played a second ruck, or rucked with another relief player as well.
vs Port Adelaide in round 2
Phillips 15 disposals, 2 Marks, 27 hit outs, 4 tackles
Lycett - 23 disposals, 5 marks, 2 tackles, 33 hit outs, 1 goal.
Ryder - 8 disposals, 3 Marks, 2, 24 hit outs,
vs North melbourne in round 7
Andrew Phillips 13 disposals, 7 marks, 28 hit outs, 1 tackle 2 behinds.
Levi casboult 12 disposals, 5 marks, 1 tackle, 3 behinds.
Todd Goldstein (out of contract and potentially gettable) 16 disposals, 4 marks, 34 hitouts 2 goals.
The only thing I dont have is the hitouts to advantage.
Thing is, with Cripps roving to our ruckmen, this stat should be good. We have the best clearance player in the competition.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - kruddler - 07-26-2019
There is a difference between being beaten, which i admit Phillips was, and having your opponent be BOG, which was the issue i had with your comments.
Coaches votes R1
10 - Cotchin
8 - Lambert
6 - Cripps
4 - Nankervis
1 - McIntosh
1 - Martin
R2
10 - Lycett
R7
8 - Cunnington
7 - Dumont
5 - Zurhaar
5 - Ziebell
4 - Higgons
1 - Brown
0 - Goldstein
R18 - Kreuzer vs Gold Coast
10 - Jones
5 - Ed
4 - Harry
3 - Brodie
3 - Miller
2 - Walsh
2 - Witts
1 - Gibbons
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - Thryleon - 07-26-2019
^^
Semantics aside, his opponents were dominant.
Thats the point though. Kreuzer was beaten by Witts, but Witts would beat most of the leagues ruckmen.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - ElwoodBlues1 - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 02:30 AM)jeza link Wrote:Phillips has to be backing himself in against a guy who hasn't played 20 games yet. Kreuzer got belted last week and we couldn't buy a centre clearance. Hopefully this week will be improved. Do the Crows have a tagger?
Crows back their mids in and dont tend to tag, I'd expect it will be the same tactic used by a lot of clubs on Cripps and that is to man him at the stoppages ie Sloane and then run off him
hoping to get him to run the other way and be accountable. A lot of Cripps opponents tend to get a lot of cheap ball so it gets down to how much they hurt you vs Cripps getting the big takeways at the clearances.
Also depends on how hard Walker, Jenkins, Lynch work to get on the lead and make those mids possies count, at the moment the Crouch boys etc have been winning plenty of ball and clearances but kicking to nothing down field as Walker and crew have been bludging and waiting for the ball to be given to them so a lot of the Crows mids possies dont hurt as they end up rebounded back out.
If the good Walker, Jenkins turn up we might be in trouble but if the typical Walker and crew from previous weeks rock up it should be a rebound fest....
Cripps needs to get forward a bit more this game IMO and use his size advantage.......very winnable game IMO.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - flyboy77 - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 07:10 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:^^
Semantics aside, his opponents were dominant.
Thats the point though. Kreuzer was beaten by Witts, but Witts would beat most of the leagues ruckmen.
I thought Kreuzer was clearly hampered last week - couldn't jump, run, bend etc as he normally would!
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - kruddler - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 07:10 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:^^
Semantics aside, his opponents were dominant.
Thats the point though. Kreuzer was beaten by Witts, but Witts would beat most of the leagues ruckmen.
Philips hasn't played more than 3 games in a row for the blues since 2016.
How about give the bloke a fair run at it and compare him to some of the games best rucks.
Despite being in and out of the side, his numbers still stack up against Kreuzer when looking at pure ruck stats.
That is, centre bounces taken vs hitouts to advantage etc.
Obviously Kreuzer spends more time on the ground, and in the ruck by comparison, but Phillips, pound for pound, betters his stats.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - kruddler - 07-26-2019
(07-26-2019, 07:30 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:I thought Kreuzer was clearly hampered last week - couldn't jump, run, bend etc as he normally would!
He copped a knock in the 3rd quarter i think.
But was soundly beaten before that....and after.
Re: Pre Game Prognostications AFL 2019 Rd 19 Carlton vs Adelaide - Raydan - 07-26-2019
I have a very bad feeling about this game, it could be where Teague gets eliminated from the coaching position 2020.
I would like to see us try something different and tag their half backs, De Luca and Fisher to go with Smith and Laird while Ed takes thie most damaging mid,
Get the ball into Samo and Newmans hands and run the ball out of their forward 50, break lines and run in waves. Adelaide are front runners and will only run hard when they have the game in hand.
Leave a backman anchored in the D50 to stop the run back to goal, and don't bomb into our F50, as their backline is set up for that.
Adeliade are beatable by a defensive game plan and outside run, hope we can bring it.