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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 04-14-2020

"As the data from the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 mature, knowledge of relative and absolute risks for different age groups and for people with different co-morbidities are instrumental for carefully choosing next steps. Aggressive measures such as lockdowns have been implemented in many countries. This is a fully justified “better safe than sorry” approach in the absence of good data. However, long-term lockdowns may have major adverse consequences for health (suicides, worsening mental health, cardiovascular disease, loss of health insurance from unemployment, etc.) and society at large.29 It is even argued that lockdowns may be even harmful as a response to COVID-19 itself, if they broaden rather than flatten the epidemic curve.30 Information from large scale testing and seroprevalence studies should soon give us a more clear picture about the true frequency of infections and thus more accurate assessments of the overall infection fatality rate. Data from Iceland suggest that almost all infections are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and thus do not come to medical attention. 31 These data also suggest that the infection fatality rate may be close to that of seasonal flu (0.1%) rather than much higher earlier estimates. If larger scale studies further document that the infection is very common and infection fatality rate is modest across the general population, the finding of very low risk in the vast majority of the general population has major implications for strategic next steps in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Tailored measures that maintain social life and the economy functional to avoid potentially even deaths from socioeconomic disruption plus effective protection of select high-risk individuals may be a sensible option."

Stanford professor of medicine John Ioannidis concludes in a new study that the risk of death from Covid19 for people under 65 years of age, even in global „hotspots“, is equivalent to the risk of a fatal car accident for daily commuters driving between 9 and 400 miles.



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054361v1.full.pdf





Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 04-14-2020

Notwithstanding the fact that the article is 4 weeks old (which makes a difference in a fast changing situation like this), it seems a rather odd position to be taking, for someone so learned. He doesn't propose any alternatives to the supposedly "draconian" measures currently in force (which are not all that draconian in my view, just some temporary and precautionary common sense). He simply repeats what we already know - i.e the testing is inadequate, we don't really know what the future holds, there could be some negative mental health outcomes because of the current measures etc. The world has been caught on the hop because we ignored the warnings of infectious disease experts, going back several years, that a pandemic like this was a certainty, and simply a case of when, not if. As a consequence, we were hopelessly unprepared, and hopelessly under resourced.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-14-2020

There is money to be made in these circumstances, just like there is money to be made denying climate change or boosting clean coal, COVID-19 is just another profit making opportunity for many people.

As such many of the repeated opinions appear to be attempts at raising a researcher's profile, not really about some radical new insight into the problem, the tell is that no solutions get offered. It's no accident China and the USA are slamming the lid on research funding, as the pandemic is being gamed by many.

Even so, "What is the problem?" is still a question worth asking, but I think the underlying context that articles like this are being referenced in remains a bit disrespectful for the general population. It's the sort of rubbish The Donald would promote while having a private ICU towed around behind him! It reads as, "So a few will die, but not me so it's no big deal!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 04-14-2020

I find myself agreeing with both the article that FB77 posted and what Pauly posted.

To be dangerously personal!!!... when Stage 3 was announced and all that it meant, and without a time frame, I found my PTSD and Panic Disorder (a nasty member of the anxiety disorder group) stuff fully triggered. This meant, in blunt terms I was a mess and needed medication and full on help. This lasted about 2 weeks. If I didn't work in the industry that I do, and understand my options re resources/strategies/support, the downward spiral could easily have been life threatening... or I could have self-medicated or taken it out on others. I know that may sound dramatic to some, but all I am doing is stating a fact. I was not far from admitting myself to the Albert Road Clinic for my own safety... Mrs Baggers was fully aware of my predicament and ready to assist. I am in regular touch with my Psychiatrist buddy at the Albert Road Clinic and am seeing (well, Skyping) a military trained psychologist (who fully understands PTSD and PD caused by military experience) with expenses met by Veterans Affairs. But what about the thousands of other men and women (non military/every day folk) with similar disorders (a whole lot more common than many think - including depressive illnesses) but without knowing their resources or how to access them or refusing to admit the problem... or to even understand what is happening to them? What does this have the potential of doing to them? What is happening, silently, behind closed doors in hundreds, maybe thousands of homes in Oz... not to mention, globally. I am talking about the spectrum from self harm / abuse to the harm and abuse of others (particularly family members) and other resultant psychological issues.

So, there is much truth in the article published by FB77... but... what Pauly posted, especially the line of wisdom... 'The world has been caught on the hop because we ignored the warnings of infectious disease experts, going back several years, that a pandemic like this was a certainty, and simply a case of when, not if. As a consequence, we were hopelessly unprepared, and hopelessly under resourced.' This is laceratingly accurate and true... and an indictment on so many (so-called) leaders. Hopefully huge resources will be ploughed into relentless research and more fckn hospital beds so WHEN the next pandemic arrives, we are well resourced and prepared to deal with ALL the resultant illnesses AND ensuring the economic operation of the nation is minimally impacted!!!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 04-15-2020

Hang in there Shano. Good to see that you can manage your condition with appropriate knowledge, resources etc. There has been some improvement in recent times wrt public awareness of mental health, but we still have a long way to go IMO.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-15-2020

(04-14-2020, 11:06 PM)Baggers date Wrote:Hopefully huge resources will be ploughed into relentless research and more fckn hospital beds so WHEN the next pandemic arrives, we are well resourced and prepared to deal with ALL the resultant illnesses AND ensuring the economic operation of the nation is minimally impacted!!!
Unfortunately Baggers I think the complacency will return, preventing it is a bit like immunity, you need a regular vaccination.

Then you also have to consider the destructive role of blokes like Trump, who for example is pointing the finger at pretty much everybody else, clearly no lesson learned!

On the personal side of things, glad to hear you're able to work your way through that stuff and that you are willing to share, the shared message is critical.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 04-15-2020

There's one saving grace.  The exposure of the U.N. WHO and the fork tongued Chinese regime.

The world won't be quite the same ever again.  It's the frontline medical teams my heart goes out to right across the planet.  There's a sobering lesson in that. 

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 04-15-2020

Whatever imperfections those two organizations may have pale into insignificance when compared to the failures of capitalism.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-15-2020

(04-15-2020, 12:44 AM)capcom date Wrote:There's one saving grace.  The exposure of the U.N. WHO and the fork tongued Chinese regime.

The world won't be quite the same ever again.  It's the frontline medical teams my heart goes out to right across the planet.  There's a sobering lesson in that.
Ignoring the politics of funding, which is clearly corrupt, I was interested to hear a report by the BBC a couple of weeks back that pointed the finger at sovereign states for going rogue and not implementing the WHO recommendations. The BBC claim was that a reversion to self-preservation mode by sovereign states caused the problem to rapidly become much worse than it should have been. Not just China in trying to close down reporting, but all countries that stupidly thought closing the borders would solve the problem. The WHO's pre-established policy was basically defined as act quickly locally and send help quickly globally, none of it happened, it was willful global denial and something we should all now be very familiar with given we are gifted tweets and tweets of it almost hourly!

btw., That report said the crap is yet to hit the fan, 3rd world African and SE Asian nations are barely getting started in this crisis and if things don't change from June onward it will be pretty ordinary.

As for capitalism/commercialism, it looks like it's both the cause and the cure, are we surprised? Just take a look at how many rubbish "COVID-19 Test Kits" and "N95 Masks" are being returned, or have attempted to be returned, to various profiteering entities in recent weeks. Hard to see trust being restored in the short term, if ever.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 04-15-2020

LP.  The W.H.O. were never in a position to dictate to anyone and neither should they given their defence of china's decision to re-open wet markets.  This isn't the one world order they'd like to institute.  But that said, I ignore anything from the U.N. and have done for decades.  I'm not about to change my opinion.  Ever.