(09-26-2021, 04:10 AM)capcom link Wrote:Which government funds aged care in Victoria?  Federal.  Which government is charged with running them?  State.  My "hatred'?  Way too kind a word.  The pr1ck has an excuse for everything.

Quote:... once we achieve 70%-80% vaccination we will see less transmission of COVID-19 and fewer people with severe illness, and therefore fewer hospitalisations and deaths. COVID-19 won’t go away but it will be easier to control in the future. These estimates come from the modelling work completed to date led by the Doherty Institute and commissioned by the Commonwealth Government to advise on the National Plan to transition Australia's National COVID-19 Response

This level of vaccination will make it easier to live with the virus, as we do with other viruses such as the flu. However, it won’t be possible to maintain a situation where there are no cases at all. The focus will shift to keeping the number of people going to hospital and dying at a minimum.

In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this. In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months. With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections and 13 deaths.

We’ve learned from watching countries that have removed all restrictions that there is no ‘freedom day’. We will need to keep some public health measures in place – test, trace, isolate and quarantine – to keep the reproduction number below 1, but as vaccination rates increase, we’ll be able to ease up further and it is unlikely that we will need generalised lockdowns.

Once we reach 70% vaccine coverage, opening up at tens or hundreds of cases nationally per day is possible, however, we will need vigilant public health interventions with higher case loads.
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/statement-on-the-doherty-institute-modelling

(09-26-2021, 01:30 PM)DJC date Wrote:The Doherty Institute is not the government.  It is an independent research body with some of the smartest, most knowledgeable people in the country working on the COVID pandemic.  I like to read their updates because I know that they are based on the best science and they shine a light at the end of the tunnel.

Quote:We’ve learned from watching countries that have removed all restrictions that there is no ‘freedom day’. We will need to keep some public health measures in place – test, trace, isolate and quarantine – to keep the reproduction number below 1, but as vaccination rates increase, we’ll be able to ease up further and it is unlikely that we will need generalised lockdowns.

(09-26-2021, 02:32 PM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/DOHERTY_MODELLING_INTERIM_REPORT_TO_NATIONAL_CABINET_17TH_SEPTEMBER_2021.pdf
For those who want a look into the future........cant see lockdowns being lifted to any great extent even at 70%.
Hope those high seeding figures never happen and the knuckleheads in the community show some common sense and continue safe practices .

(09-26-2021, 01:19 PM)Micky0 link Wrote:Thanks for answering Shawny, I appreciate it. I’m so sorry your kids are really hurting.

You’re right I suppose where you sit now is how you view it - besides loss of doing what we want my family has maintained our life pretty much in terms of work. My kids are ok remote learning and otherwise are ok.

I disagree on the lies you’ve attributed to Dan and view him as a strong leader. But understand that due to your circumstances you see it differently.

I hope Covid screws off for all our sakes.

(09-26-2021, 02:43 PM)shawny link Wrote:EB, has there been any advise on the rules of quarantine if exposed once the state opens. Surely not the same 14 day quarantine is going to apply if your fully vaccinated?

Everyone concedes opening up will have case numbers heading north so the chances of being near live with or at a tier one site is going to be a much higher probability then we currently have. Hopefully if your fully vaccinated that rule doesn’t apply.

(09-26-2021, 01:01 PM)DJC link Wrote:Wrong!