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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 08-19-2021

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-efficacy-wanes-under-delta-232414781.html

https://au.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-vaccine-effectiveness-declines-faster-014845033.html

Seems we are going to need booster jabs sooner than later and getting people to keep coming back isnt going to be easy.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 08-19-2021

(08-19-2021, 05:16 AM)madbluboy date Wrote:It's concerning that we have had 50 cases in a day despite being locked down for 4 of the last 5 weeks.
The authorities knew this was coming, they should communicate it better and perhaps people would then understand why they have to follow the COVID-19 guidelines.

Now the important number is the case difference between those circulating in the community and those already in isolation. At the moment we've most cases coming from people already in isolation, that has to stay that hat way for it to diminish the spread. But he numbers still have to rise yet, they won't fall until you see the cases outside of isolation very very low.

For example today they reported about a dozen outside of isolation, of which they think 4 or so were circulating while infectious. If they have been in close contact with others freely circulating in the community those 4 can turn into about 30 in just one infectious cycle.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 08-19-2021

(08-19-2021, 05:18 AM)ElwoodBlues1 date Wrote:Seems we are going to need booster jabs sooner than later and getting people to keep coming back isnt going to be easy.
It's a bit of a misleading or ambiguous report, because efficacy isn't just about infections. The concept in the media that the vaccines will stop infection is fundamentally wrong, and such studies used as the basis of media reports are a bit misleading. Many scientists and science communicators are a bit naivé, they report in a manner that allows findings to be mis-used or mis-quoted. What the science behind this really means to say is that you are not possibly safe unless you have been effectively vaccinated.

I do understand why they report that, it's because of the people who can't or won't get vaccinated, nobody is safe, the public can't wait this out and hope everybody around them will do the right thing, because even if they do anyone can still be infected and they can still transmit the virus to someone who isn't vaccinated.

Getting boosters won't necessarily reduce the infection rate, and the more people that get vaccinated will only lead to a higher percentage of cases being people already vaccinated. But in the countries with high vaccination rates acute cases are now made up of as high as 99% unvaccinated people, so the efficacy of the vaccines turns out to be very very high.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - spf - 08-19-2021

(08-19-2021, 05:10 AM)LP link Wrote:Just listened to an epidemiologist on radio, they think unless something extraordinary happens NSW will be 2,000 a day before the end of the month, and 10,000 a day by the end of Sept. That is an effective R[sub]0[/sub] = 3.0 every 14 days, if not for the lockdowns and vaccinations the R[sub]0[/sub] would be much higher, at this stage the restrictions have halved the effective transmission rates. But R[sub]0[/sub] = 3.0 still isn't great!

Vic have a very slight chance of not following that trend, and if Vic can't halt the spread it will be almost miracle territory if the same doesn't eventually happen in other states.

The big problem all the states have is non-compliance in the general public, too many people prepared to burn down the farm to get it over with. I suspect people touting that solution are ignorant of the long term effects! :o

I've also heard/read that this Delta variant is problematic because the incubation period is a bit more of a variable, it can turn up in a patient after 72hrs or as long as two weeks! So they expect to start making 14 days the default isolation period for everybody now, Tier 1, 2 , 3 or whatever!

Think that's something? Check out what is happening in Israel. Now 8,000 cases and rising. This is from a country that was an early adopter for vaccinations and had have 60% vaccination rate from March this year. Delta is resetting the agenda.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 08-20-2021

Did I just read correctly in The Age that in NSW only now are masks mandatory outdoors!! Plus an admittance that stronger measures should have been adopted since day 1!!!

I'm going back to read the article again.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 08-20-2021

(08-20-2021, 02:28 AM)capcom link Wrote:You read it correctly [member=61]Baggers[/member] ... and lockdown to 01 October in that state.  How could you be so stupid with not enforcing that policy?  Delta is clearly something else thanks to the chinks

Careful what you wish for, dictator Dan is on the verge of making the lockdown even tougher.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - capcom - 08-20-2021

Chairman hunchback is capable of anything.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - kruddler - 08-20-2021

(08-20-2021, 02:39 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:Careful what you wish for, dictator Dan is on the verge of making the lockdown even tougher.

If NSW has taught people anything, its better to go too hard too soon than to risk not going hard enough, soon enough.

Its easy for me to say who has not really been affected too much by it all, but i think the NSW situation is going to be a big wake up call to a few Vics.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 08-20-2021

(08-20-2021, 02:39 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:Careful what you wish for, dictator Dan is on the verge of making the lockdown even tougher.

One is an emergency response to a failing.

The other is preventative.

Both are terribly difficult for many.

And to be honest and perhaps too revealing. I am personally one of those, from a mental health perspective, who suffers pretty badly on announcement of a lockdown, and during a lockdown. I feel instantly 'trapped' which triggers my PTSD quite badly. I aint Robinson Crusoe. I can inform you that DVA/Open Arms and many RSLs are run off their, under resourced, feet during such times.

In real terms what does that mean? On lockdown announcement and news stories of escalating infections, I experience: shortness of breath (anxiety asthma, although I don't have asthma), shaking, loss of appetite (a severe symptom for this little black duck!! Wink ), IBS, nightmares, uncontrollable short bursts of weeping, loss of interest in most things I enjoy, hot and cold sweats and waves of severe panic. Dealing with these things and getting them under control, takes days, at times weeks, and involves assistance from other professionals in my field. A couple of times emergency intervention.

But at no stage do I blame, lash out at or feel critical of those in Victoria making these lockdown decisions.

If I do feel angry at anyone, it's the self interested, ignorant b@stards who flout the lockdown rules creating it more difficult for everyone, by creating more Covid breaches and infections. In fact I've felt angry enough at these pr1cks to stupidly wonder, for a brief moment, if a half ounce of lead behind the left ear isn't the cure to rid ourselves of these fools (would never seriously consider it, but sure have felt it - fleetingly). I am certainly supportive of legal measures to get these clowns off the streets to protect the greater majority of good folks who are team players, as draconian as that may seem.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - cookie2 - 08-20-2021

Yesterday I was out for a walk and needed to make a call at a toilet in a local recreation reserve. In the kids playground was a young mum with two kids, no masks, and the kids playing happily on swings that had a large PLAYGROUND CLOSED sign attached. Un..feckin’…believable.