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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-30-2021

(07-30-2021, 04:15 AM)Mav date Wrote:The R0  is reportedly between 5 and 9 whereas the original R0 was between 2 and 3.
Yes, this is correct, the original strain R[sub]0[/sub] was about 2.5, the Delta Strain R[sub]0[/sub] is around 7.

People see that number and think is only 2x or 3x, but it's part of a growth calculation so 7 is hundreds or thousands of times more infectious than 2.5.

The approximate formula is R[sub]0[/sub][sup]n[/sup], where n is the number of infection cycles.

Our video doctor friend did a nice summary, for some reason this video sometimes loads part way through the video and you have to go back to the start to get at the basics;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDL6XZ8DDbs

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 07-30-2021

Apparently, the CDC will publicly reveal its report on Friday, US time.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-30-2021

(07-30-2021, 05:07 AM)Mav date Wrote:Apparently, the CDC will publicly reveal its report on Friday, US time.
The problem will be numbers like R[sub]0[/sub] depend on public behaviour, the real numbers are calculated assuming certain environmental conditions which include percentages of good or bad human behaviour. They have the 80/20 rule for example, 80% of cases are spread by only 20% of people.

But if public behaviour changes radically, for example of we all bunker down like Preppers, or if we all go stupid and party like it's 1999, the R[sub]0[/sub] will change dramatically.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 07-30-2021

Apparently, China is battling an outbreak of Delta Covid in 8 provinces and 41,000 people are locked down in Beijing. Seems it came into China on a flight from Russia. Tokyo is setting a record with 4,000 daily infections, with hospitals bursting at the seams.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-30-2021

(07-30-2021, 05:19 AM)Mav date Wrote:Tokyo is setting a record with 4,000 daily infections, with hospitals bursting at the seams.
That may be an old figure, I've read that today Tokyo might hit 10,000 cases in one day, and that Japan wide it may double!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 07-31-2021

https://au.news.yahoo.com/30-times-more-deadly-fears-covid-variants-could-merge-084519240.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-31-2021

Stretching the Pfizer interval from three to six weeks will probably have some effect on reducing the efficacy, but it is probably the right thing to do given the vast bulk of Delta cases are unvaccinated.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 07-31-2021

(07-31-2021, 09:36 PM)LP link Wrote:Stretching the Pfizer interval from three to six weeks will probably have some effect on reducing the efficacy, but it is probably the right thing to do given the vast bulk of Delta cases are unvaccinated.

According to the scientist I think it was spfs video it showed it actually yields better effects in the UK than it has in Israel.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 08-01-2021

Sober reading on Pfizer.

https://doctors4covidethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Pfizer-pharmacokinetics-and-toxicity.pdf

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 08-01-2021

(07-31-2021, 10:16 PM)Thryleon date Wrote:According to the scientist I think it was spfs video it showed it actually yields better effects in the UK than it has in Israel.
Yes after the 2nd shot, but a longer interval after only the 1st dose increases the time risk of infection or transmission.

There is not much solid data on the difference between Pfizer and AZ for the Delta variant after only the 1st shot, but both appear to be about 65% effective at that early stage. The people I've heard talking about this suggest cross vaccination is the best strategy to maximise efficacy, but not many regions are doing it. However it's likely they will start to cross vaccinate as Delta grabs hold, so that patients get a strong reaction for both antibodies and T-Cell immunity.