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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 12:10 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

Hmmm, best tell that to all the morons who decided to flood down to the Peninsula Surf beaches today, if you wanted to go there to walk the dog you couldn't even get a car park!

They've basically stopped widespread testing, because the tests do not tell if the person has antibodies, they are doing targeted testing instead, people who are genuinely ill. They have also realised the reporting is fuelling the panic, so they are now restricting the data to stop the media causing a panic. There will be new tests becoming available in the next couple of weeks to clarify the situation. The new tests which cost about $1 and give a result in minutes will see a massive spike in cases or previous cases as they detect both the infected and the antibodies. Not sure how that will be reported, but you expect more people quarantined.

Stage 3 is coming people, it's inevitable!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 12:46 AM)Jack Burton link Wrote:Unfortunately I don't think we are even within sight of the peak (predicted to be late May or early June. In NSW, for the first time yesterday they had more than 50% of their new cases that had not been on a cruise ship or returned from overseas, and had no known contact with anybody who had. That means the start of community spread. And once it starts, it will gain momentum quickly. We're ll hoping the self isolation will slow it down, but there are too many morons who refuse to follow instructions in this country, so increased community spread is inevitable in my opinion

Quote me your source Jack...re May/June. That is illogical.

The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).

And:

"Even people who develop symptoms are at risk of unwittingly spreading the virus. A study in China suggests that infectiousness starts about 2.5 days before the onset of symptoms, and peaks 15 hours before (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbr).

We know that coughs and sneezes spread the virus, so how is it possible for asymptomatic people to spread the infection?

People with mild or no symptoms can have a very high viral load in their upper respiratory tracts, meaning they can shed the virus through spitting, touching their mouths or noses and then a surface, or possibly talking. Even people who don’t feel ill occasionally cough or sneeze.

Once symptoms develop, a person’s viral load declines steadily, and they become increasingly less infectious. However, people appear to keep shedding the virus for around two weeks after they recover from covid-19, both in their saliva and stools (medRxiv, doi.org/dqbs). This means that even once a person’s symptoms have cleared, it may still be possible to infect other people.

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238473-you-could-be-spreading-the-coronavirus-without-realising-youve-got-it/#ixzz6HwUGhmXL

"the start of community spread"? What the f... do you think has been happening in recent weeks?

Why do you think we've been socially isolating?

The data doesn't lie! (short of a random event)

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 01:20 AM)LP link Wrote:Hmmm, best tell that to all the morons who decided to flood down to the Peninsula Surf beaches today, if you wanted to go there to walk the dog you couldn't even get a car park!

They've basically stopped widespread testing, there will be new tests becoming available in the next couple of weeks to clarify the situation. The new tests which cost about $1 and give a result in minutes will see a massive spike in cases or previous cases as they detect both the infected and the antibodies. Not sure how that will be reported.

Stage 3 is coming people, it's inevitable!

And so be it. Fine idiots who don't act appropriately.

A few $500 fines will clear the beaches.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

OK, they have just updated yesterday's new cases to 328!

March 27 (GMT)
328 new cases in Australia [source]
March 26 (GMT)
374 new cases and 2 new deaths in Australia: 2 men in their 70s, one had been a passenger on the Ruby Princess cruise ship [source] [source] [source] [source]
March 25 (GMT)
359 new cases and 3 new deaths in Australia. Deaths:  2 Victorian men in their 70s and a 69-year old man who had contracted the disease on board of the Royal Caribbean cruise ship [source] [source] [source]
March 24 (GMT)
430 new cases and 1 new death in Australia [source]
March 23 (GMT)
278 new cases in Australia [source]
March 22 (GMT)
537 new cases in Australia. NSW will proceed to a more comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services over the next 48 hours [source] [source] [source]

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 01:22 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:The incubation period (99%) anyway is 14 days or less (median 5 days).
They don't know the incubation period yet, those reports were speculation that the media have reported as fact, and they don't know how asymptomatic carriers spread the disease, the Colorado COVID Caseys out there leaving Portsea are increasing in number by the ratio of about 5:1 each and every day!  That's basic math and cannot lie!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 01:23 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:And so be it. Fine idiots who don't act appropriately.

A few $500 fines will clear the beaches.
 You can't believe it's peaked, and also believe fining healthy people is rational, so I presume you don't really believe it's peaked!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

No, they've done some initial studies on the incubation period - and of course there are a few outliers - I've seen 27 days.

Let's reassess in a few days, then we'll have a better idea.

And yes I was more confident when yesterday's number was 130, rather than the adjusted 328 - still looks like it's flat lining....

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 01:32 AM)LP link Wrote:You can't believe it's peaked, and also believe fining healthy people is rational, so I presume you don't really believe it's peaked!

ps why shouldn't idiots be fined?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 03-28-2020

(03-28-2020, 01:40 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:ps why shouldn't idiots be fined?
 I was questioning your beliefs not the fines.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 03-28-2020

I'm just interpreting the data.

Sure, need several more days to confirm it but.....

And I'm not suggesting the country drop all or any restrictions. Just that to say this may feed into June is BS.

End of the day, the data is the data. It appears to have stabilised. But of course some area are behind others and the Bondi gathering from last weekend hasn't shown up in the data yet?

Maybe an event that like will result in a brief spike, maybe it won't.