(03-27-2020, 09:16 PM)Tragic link Wrote:I hope you make it through OK Prof.

(03-27-2020, 09:06 PM)Professer E link Wrote:I spent thirty years building a career and a business and it's over.  Ducked. Fini.  Kaput.    But I accept that it's for the greater good. 

All I've seen in the past month is the reality of Australia in 2020.  It's not "how ya doin mate".  It's "F you Jack,  I'm alright... I'm still workin' and I got heapza bog roll". 

These are the exact selfish cretins - at all socioeconomic levels - that refuse to do what is required for the soft quarantine to work.  And we're all going to pay for it.

(03-28-2020, 12:10 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

New cases in the country yesterday only 130 - and the graph up to yesterday of new cases show a flattening then decline. Of course, new deaths always lags news cases for a time and may rise in the short term (but we've never had more than 3 deaths in a day anyway) - nature of the beast sadly.

Of course there can always be random acts of madness (outbreaks) like Qld local elections going ahead today (what a disgrace) but if our current trajectory continues.....

The key now is to get a cheap, quick test out there and test the f... out of everyone. Isolate all new cases immediately. It sounds like if you've had it once, you're very unlikely to get it again....so test the antibodies and if you've had it get the f... back to work.

Finally to put this all in perspective, H1N1 in 2009 in the US:

"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

Much to play out in the US, but thus far 100k cases (vs 60m over the year) and 1600 deaths (vs 12500 odd). Hmmmm.

and

"Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.**"

Thus far, with the virus globally, deaths? 27000 (noting it may yet rage through poorer countries like in Africa, but then again, their older folk have already died from other stuff or starvation).

With this corona virus, data from South Korea (which has largely beaten it now) shows everything flat lines pretty quickly once you get over the peak!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

(03-27-2020, 11:44 PM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:Ditto, that's tough having 30 years of
building a business ripped out from underneath you. Unlike Dangerfield and crew I  think most in the community with jobs would be happy to pay a bit more in taxes to help those like Prof get back on their feet. Banks and other finance institutions have to cut those struggling with businesses some slack too.

(03-28-2020, 12:23 AM)Baggers link Wrote:I thought the same thing, FB, until I saw we had 111 new cases in VIC today... up from the 55 or so average over the past week or so. And NSW figures haven't come in yet for today... gulp!

(03-28-2020, 12:10 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:I'm calling it early - the virus has peaked here in Australia...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

New cases in the country yesterday only 130 - and the graph up to yesterday of new cases show a flattening then decline. Of course, new deaths always lags news cases for a time and may rise in the short term (but we've never had more than 3 deaths in a day anyway) - nature of the beast sadly...

...........https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

(03-28-2020, 01:02 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:of course they're not going to say anything publicly. Duh.

But the data is the data, need a few more days to confirm it but every country that 'peaks' falls off rapidly.....

Picking data?

New cases is the only relevant leading indicator - you got something better? Put it up.