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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 07-07-2021
(07-06-2021, 03:55 AM)LP link Wrote:That is perhaps a confusion of the consequences and benefits of vaccination with the fundamental characteristics of the virus.
Regarding virulence:
The R[sub]0[/sub] is a growth factor, Influenza's R[sub]0[/sub] is suggested to be 1.3, normal COVID-19 is about R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.5, the COVID Delta variant R[sub]0[/sub] is initially showing as 7.0. This is massively different because the reproduction number describes exponential growth.
Influenza R[sub]0[/sub] = 1.3, after 4 generations the infection count is just 2.8
COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] = 2.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 16
COVID-19 Delta R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 2401
Even if the COVID Delta variant is 100x less lethal than Influenza it works out just as deadly, unfortunately in the real world COVID-19 Delta it is more deadly/lethal than Influenza.
Also, with a higher the R[sub]0[/sub] a much higher percentage of community resistance must be achieved to reach herd immunity, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.0 requires about 60% resistance, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0 requires about 90% resistance.
The basic math is why the authorities are crapting themselves about the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Thanks teacher for the maths lesson - you arrogant dill. ROFL.
Basic maths or basic modelling?
Models are a function of GIGO - and that's all we've seen from all and sundry wrt the bug. From that dill at the Imperial College to the buffoons who were modelling here last year - orders of magnitude off reality....
The data doesn't lie - Delta/Indian was in full bloom in UK well before the vaxxing was done to any significant degree - as my charts evidence - and not even a blip. Again, cases mean jack if there is no uptick in hospitalisation or deaths.
It was the cry here - and nada - and guess what a new strain surfaces.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 07-07-2021
(07-06-2021, 04:10 AM)Mav link Wrote:Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.
Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?
So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.
As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.
I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 07:48 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.I mentioned previously that ambo callouts were way up for mental health problems with CoVid mainly and that info was from ambo officers at the coalface and not the govt stats who dont record that type of info unless its a hospital admission..
As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.
I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
Hardly an ambo callout for Covid itself though during the peaking months..
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 07:48 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:So give them ivermectin. FMD, a lot of gullible folk here.
As for Mav's anti lockdowners having a hard time.
I've got two young kids, shame on you, you pompous ......
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mental-health/attempted-suicide-rates-among-victorian-teenagers-soar-by-184-per-cent-in-past-six-months-kids-helpline-reveals/news-story/db9d5136075a7c7edf4750a0391b0653
FB77. How about making a point without resorting to insults and putdowns - they don't strengthen your argument.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 09:36 AM)Baggers link Wrote:FB77. How about making a point without resorting to insults and putdowns - they don't strengthen your argument.
Do you ask the same of LP Baggers?
He's as condescending as they come.....
https://www.covidmedicalnetwork.com/media/interviews/asia-pacific-today/vaccine-rollout-must-stop.aspx
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 07-07-2021
I'm not comfortable taking covid advice from a cardiologist.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 07-07-2021
ps I'll apologise, I do get rather emotional when unequivocal data is put up and the likes of LP have nothing to counter it with but do so anyway.
I run three businesses - 1.5 of them have been destroyed by these entirely (aside maybe the first few weeks at the start of this thing last year) pointless, useless, idiotic lockdowns.
I'm ok but I worry for the future of my kids and indeed, this once great State - laid bare by a charlatan.
When the likes of Mav put up stuff suggesting lockdowns are just A ok, i blow smoke.
Never in the history of pandemics have lockdowns been advocated by any public health authority prior to the start of 2020.
For the very reason that the net damage to society and the economy is simply too great. And this was always very well understood and accepted.
And the data clearly shows the flu is a bigger killer than this virus in all the younger age demographics (maybe up to 40 or 45, i can't be bothered digging out the data now). If you don't want to believe that, sobeit. But you're wrong.
For that I'm sorry.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - flyboy77 - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 10:56 AM)PaulP link Wrote:I'm not comfortable taking covid advice from a cardiologist.
And bang, limp ad hominem attack.
soft as Paul, real soft.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 07-07-2021
(07-07-2021, 11:09 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:And bang, limp ad hominem attack.
soft as Paul, real soft.
Some of us don't have the time to investigate every garbologist, greengrocer, taxi driver, cardiologist etc., who think they know better than the experts in their field. And very few of us possess your obvious talents for data analysis.
If that makes me an ad hominem attacker, I can live with that.
We're just trying to follow the rules, the expert advice, and do the right thing, to protect ourselves, and protect others. If you believe it's all a hysterical overreaction, that is a matter for you.
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 07-07-2021
Do a very simple Google search, " is covid more dangerous than the flu", and see the hits that show up. Here's a very small sample :
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/14/is-covid-more-deadly-and-contagious-than-seasonal-flu
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=252335
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows#1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30527-0/fulltext
It's not correct to assume that damage to economy and society is the reason why lockdowns etc. haven't been used in the past. The Spanish flu killed anywhere between 17 and 100 million people. The standard range is given as 20-50 million. Covid so far has killed 4 million. Maybe the restrictions, in association with other advancements tied to modern society, have actually been useful ? Certainly not without fallout, but useful ?
All global crises, whether they be wars, pandemics, severe economic crashes etc., have significant negative impacts, across the physical, mental, financial and emotional spectrum.