Carlton Supporters Club
CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

+- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com)
+-- Forum: Social Club (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-6.html)
+--- Forum: Blah-Blah Bar (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-23.html)
+--- Thread: CV and mad panic behaviour (/thread-4651.html)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-06-2021

(07-06-2021, 03:26 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:What the article fails to mention - or discuss - is that, irrespective of the rate of reproduction (which events both in the UK and here would throw in doubt as to how infectious is actually is), the rates of hospitalisations and deaths are negligible.
That is perhaps a confusion of the consequences and benefits of vaccination with the fundamental characteristics of the virus.

Regarding virulence:
The R[sub]0[/sub] is a growth factor, Influenza's R[sub]0[/sub] is suggested to be 1.3, normal COVID-19 is about R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.5, the COVID Delta variant R[sub]0[/sub] is initially showing as 7.0. This is massively different because the reproduction number describes exponential growth.

Influenza R[sub]0[/sub] = 1.3, after 4 generations the infection count is just 2.8

COVID-19 R[sub]0[/sub] = 2.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 16

COVID-19 Delta R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0, after 4 generations the infection count is 2401

Even if the COVID Delta variant is 100x less lethal than Influenza it works out just as deadly, unfortunately in the real world COVID-19 Delta it is more deadly/lethal than Influenza.

Also, with a higher the R[sub]0[/sub] a much higher percentage of community resistance must be achieved to reach herd immunity, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 2.0 requires about 60% resistance, an R[sub]0[/sub] of 7.0 requires about 90% resistance.

The basic math is why the authorities are crapting themselves about the COVID-19 Delta variant.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 07-06-2021

There's not a single thing I've read from any reputable immunologist, epidemiologist, specialist etc. that states the seasonal flu is a bigger issue than covid, or that covid (in whatever variant) is hyped up to be something bigger than it is. Not one. The dangers of covid may not necessarily be that it is "inherently" more dangerous than the flu. It may simply be a bigger problem because we don't have herd immunity, have not built up some kind of antibody resistance, and because of the unavailability (until recently) of any treatment or vaccine. Nevertheless, in the present, it is a way bigger issue than the flu.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 07-06-2021

Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.

Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 07-06-2021

(07-06-2021, 12:40 AM)PaulP link Wrote:Oh, and 48 hours after my final jab, no issues or adverse side effects.

Wrapped to hear that, Pauly.

I had the first AZ recently (at last finished selling PI home and moving), and experienced over the next 24/36 hrs mild flu like symptoms - very mild headache for a few hours, touch of fatigue, bit itchy for a hour or so, injection site mild tenderness/pain and a little toss and turn first night's sleep. No fevers, chills, sweats. Thank the gods, no loss of appetite!!

I found it interesting that everyone else at the clinic, besides me, was actually quite young - under 50s and a few in their 30s.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 07-06-2021

(07-06-2021, 04:10 AM)Mav link Wrote:Covid-19’s Delta variant means it’s ‘absolutely essential’ to protect children from infection, experts say, ABC.

Seems long-Covid is a major concern. Now, if Covid is just like flu, why haven’t we ever heard about long-flu?

Fancy bringing logic and common sense to the argument!! What are you smoking, Wingman MAV?  Wink  Wink  Smile

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 07-06-2021

I got my second pfizer jab as expected earlier today.

Ill keep you posted if anything occurs.

From Pauls link:

Quote:But the vaccines do much more to prevent death than transmission of the virus, so cases of Covid are expected to rise for some time yet. The larger the epidemic grows, the more chance the virus has of finding vulnerable people who have not had their shots, or are not sufficiently protected by the vaccine. While the vaccines dramatically weaken the link between cases and deaths, they are unlikely to break it entirely.

My skepticism is more about what happens with or without vaccine and how we really determine the true impact of it.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - PaulP - 07-06-2021

(07-06-2021, 06:02 AM)Baggers link Wrote:Wrapped to hear that, Pauly.

I had the first AZ recently (at last finished selling PI home and moving), and experienced over the next 24/36 hrs mild flu like symptoms - very mild headache for a few hours, touch of fatigue, bit itchy for a hour or so, injection site mild tenderness/pain and a little toss and turn first night's sleep. No fevers, chills, sweats. Thank the gods, no loss of appetite!!

I found it interesting that everyone else at the clinic, besides me, was actually quite young - under 50s and a few in their 30s.

Thanks matey. Good to hear your symptoms were on the mild side, and importantly, no effect on your appetite.  Big Grin

I believe with the AZ, the first shot is the worst wrt symptoms, so you should be good to go with No 2.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 07-07-2021

Interesting to hear that there is now burgeoning evidence for Delta strain that suggests the hospitalisation rate is equally spilt around Under 50s and Over 50s. It's no longer Grandma and Grandpa, now it's sons and daughters.

I suppose we can expect a shift in the blogger dominated professional media.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 07-07-2021

Tough week for the anti-Lockdowners. Gladys extends the NSW lockdown, saying it has been effective in reducing movement around the metro area and has helped to bring exponential spread under control.

Orwell’s Animal Farm offers a way forward when absolute positions need to be watered down. Sure, “All lockdowns are bad” might not work any more. But we can just change it to, ”NSW lockdowns good, Victorian lockdowns bad”.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 07-07-2021

(07-07-2021, 04:25 AM)Mav link Wrote:Tough week for the anti-Lockdowners. Gladys extends the NSW lockdown, saying it has been effective in reducing movement around the metro area and has helped to bring exponential spread under control.

Orwell’s Animal Farm offers a way forward when absolute positions need to be watered down. Sure, “All lockdowns are bad” might not work any more. But we can just change it to, ”NSW lockdowns good, Victorian lockdowns bad”.

Well said. Dare I say that had Gladys reacted as VIC did recently that the spread would have been halted sooner? Sheesh, I don't know what came over me to suggest such a thing  :Smile  :Smile  :-X  Dare I also suggest that had VIC handled our recent outbreak exactly as Gladys has the media, especially News Ltd., would have been rolling out Rita P and Andrew B with scathing opinion pieces. "Oh the hypocrisy," he said, shaking his his head.

When a political ego dictates decisions we get... well, look at NSW.