Carlton Supporters Club
CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

+- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com)
+-- Forum: Social Club (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-6.html)
+--- Forum: Blah-Blah Bar (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-23.html)
+--- Thread: CV and mad panic behaviour (/thread-4651.html)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 03:46 AM)capcom date Wrote:Or surrender monkeys.
France stood up for us against China at the G7, ............ it's not like they buy uranium off us, ................. sacre bleu! :o

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 02:07 AM)Mav link Wrote:If you were placed in charge, how would you deal with Covid without resorting to restrictions? Would you just trust that there’d be no spike in infections? Perhaps you wouldn’t care whether one occurred because it’s no big deal? But what would you do?

It’s easy to fixate on the costs of a course of action if you don’t have to worry about proposing alternatives. For instance, funding the military in Australia is a massive cost. There isn’t anyone trying to invade us now and absent the arrival of white colonists we’ve never been invaded before. So we could save a lot of money by disbanding the military.

I'd stage the imposition of restrictions so that things continue relatively as normal until otherwise required, and am watching NSW with intrigue.  My assumption is that they will get on top of this relatively quickly.  The data shows 32 positive cases over 7 days for over 160 000 tests.  The latest 10 are all close contacts and household members of those already positive.  Which means, that their response is so far commensurate with the risk.


Seperate to that, I would be imposing practical safe guards to prevent outbreaks from growing before they begin  in a future state to try and keep normality normal for as long as possible.  Regular testing of someone coming out of hotel quarantine is a requirement for one month post quarantine.

I have witnessed lines of people waiting to get tested where they are all in each others faces, and there is no booking system for a test.  Implement one, so that way you know who is coming where and when, rather than seeing a bunch of people standing around waiting to get tested.  Yes, walk ins are ok, but Ive seen more scope for spread waiting to be tested than in a lot of places, and that was including during our big outbreaks last year.

I wouldn't be cancelling all the elective surgeries at the first sign of outbreak, because we should have mandatory testing for those going in for elective surgery.  No negative test, no surgery and that continues irrespective of outbreak landscape to ensure that surgery and health care workers are protected.  Cancelling all non essential surgeries at the first sign of outbreak, is problematic for a whole host of reasons, and I see no reason why they were cancelled recently.

The rules about new born dads only having 1 hour a day with mum and new born during out breaks is stupid and should be removed irrespective of outbreak.  Let them have a test in the lead up to birth, and then you can be somewhat sure about their covid free state (and if unwell dont come at all, your new born will thank you later).  I know of one infant in NICU who's parents were both allowed to visit seperately for less than 1 hour at a time....  Useless.  They are more likely to walk out, catch covid, and then walk back in with it, than they are to go in and stay in for the day.

Schools continue until outbreaks implicate those students, and then into isolation unless wider restrictions result in more online learning.

Footy plays on with or without fans, as scheduled.  The players are subjected to regular covid tests, and for the most part, should be playing on irrespective of covid state.  The fact that there is this big rush to "get out" wreaks of stupidity as once we declare a lockdown, the point is to catch positive people before they run off, so the big rush to leave results in a potentially quick and large spread, instead of encouraging good behaviours.  Result more spread, not less.

QR codes....  What is the point in QR coding people at a service station to fill up their car?  They spend more time qr coding than they do with the attendant and that just makes people hang around longer.  Practicality should trump the necessity to record things for the sake of it.

I am not advocating free movement of everyone, but there are better ways to do this than simply lock everyone up in a panic.  I am not even privy to the information that they all have to come up with some of this stuff because I am aware that the government knows more than it tells its people.  Gladys not locking down is a tell in itself that this one will fizzle out.

What I do know, is that the mandatory testing of front liners is wanting.  I know at the airport and in the health care networks the tests are not happening to the staff that are required.  The mask wearing is something that lacks common sense.  If you walk into a hospital as a staff member, that just put a mask on in the car, they require you change it in the hospital.

Quantitive and Qualitative risk analysis is missing from a lot of our measures.  I can go to a restaurant with 100 strangers where we all eat maskless, but I cannot go to a wedding with 100 people whom I know, and whom are more likely to avoid going if unwell because they dont want to kill aunty ruby (or maybe they do, but thats beside the point).

I went to a christening of twins in Feb.  Over 100 people, not one chance of catching covid even though we were in restrictions a week later.

We make vaccines available.  AZ, Pfizer, whatever.  We tell everyone exactly what the hold up is, why its taking so long, and then at some point when everyone has had access to a vaccine, and declined to take it we let it rip until things get out of hand and we can revert back to controlling its spread again. 

We are going to have periods where there is overlap between vaccine where people are at risk, but I can tell you now, that the administration of vaccines in the hospital is on a first come first serve basis.  You  walk in as a health care worker and you get one, irrespective of whether you are a cleaner or a surgeon because they didnt both prioritising.  The fact they are discouraging  too many from one department to go at one time, and to go just before a break between shifts is an indicator, that they know about side effects and the illness and sick leave caused by it.  If people are refusing vaccines, well, statistics are statistics.  You would feel pretty bloody stupid getting a disease you could have protected yourself against if it has a bad outcome attached, and thats a learning opportunity for the anti vax movement that will help us all in the long run so perhaps natural selection will work for the greater good there.

You know, I look abroad and we have been given a lot of hyperbole about this disease, and yet we dont have a 3rd world health care system, we dont even have a risk averse approach to covid (if IT issues occur, the IT guys go into the covid ward which is a massive tell about the covid risk because why would  you send someone in if it was truly dangerous who doesn't need to go in, particularly for a mundane issue like one workstation offline or to install a fax machine when papers can be passed around quite easily or revert to electronic documentation, but I digress).

I dont speak from a position of not seeing some of the hypocrisy up close and personal, which means either the hospital workers are cognisent of the risk, and then take more risks than necessary anyway (doubtful) or the risk isnt as great as we are being told about, and the news out there is to encourage people to limit their stupidity outside of covid infection, in case they become the super spreader you guys describe.

Since covid started, I lead a rather simple existence.  Catch ups with different families are a fortnight apart, just in case you only hit my side or my mrs side.  We generally do grocery shopping, and stay at home activities where possible unless we need something else.





Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 06-22-2021

Thryleon, it seems to me that you aren’t proposing a response which is much different from the status quo. You are really proposing a number of tweaks, many of which I wouldn’t oppose.

I agree that the 14 day quarantine is a bit arbitrary and is a bit of a compromise between public safety and individual freedom. Frequent post-release testing would be sensible, especially as there’s a risk of being infected in hotel quarantine while exiting. But keeping track of those who have just been released would be a challenge as they’d no doubt feel like their lives have been upended enough at that stage. Again, testing queues are a compromise required to ensure a sufficient volume of tests: bookings and staggered entry would be ideal, of course. Football games are moved to avoid crowd less games: bad for TV coverage and a loss at the gate. And if they’re played in a Covid hotspot, opposing teams may be unable or unwilling to come and incur quarantine restrictions. But I wouldn’t be against your proposals.

It really does come down to whether a possible outbreak should trigger tight restrictions until the extent of infections is known and addressed. NSW will indeed be interesting in this regard.

But for me vaccinations are the key. I don’t have a problem with opening up when we’re approaching herd immunity and everyone has had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated (i.e. both doses). But we’re nowhere near that. For instance, I’ve only had the 1 dose and that gives me only a 33% chance of resisting infection but the 2nd dose in August will increase that to 60-90%.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 03:46 AM)capcom link Wrote:And destroy alliances, international commitments in a threatened world?  This isn't the utopian land of Star Trek.  Or surrender monkeys.   
I guess you could argue that the lack of immediate threats is due to the military expenditure and those who assume we could have had the same level of protection if the military didn’t exist are wrong. Much like I would argue that those who say the low level of Covid infection would have been the same in the absence of restrictions are naive.

And I guess you would argue that the absence of visible military threats doesn’t mean they aren’t developing. Much as I’d argue that the absence of a new Covid wave doesn’t mean one is not on the horizon.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 03:56 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:Schools continue until outbreaks implicate those students, and then into isolation unless wider restrictions result in more online learning.
The problem here seems to be that when a virus variant is fast moving, due to the lag in diagnosis, by the time you get a positive case detection it's too late and you're in another snap lockdown anyway.

I sympathise with teachers and other school staff, they are in someway being treated by the general public as canaries.

Are you going to test all the kids pre-emptively? If so what happens to the poor kid who is first off the block, dragged out of school to be the eternal target of ridicule!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 06-22-2021

NSW have a better contact tracing dept staffed correctly with more trained healthcare staff, I would expect NSW to have better control and shorter restriction periods...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 06-22-2021

Don’t worry, that means we’ll have a priority draft pick in the next contact tracing national draft.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 04:37 AM)Mav link Wrote:Thryleon, it seems to me that you aren’t proposing a response which is much different from the status quo. You are really proposing a number of tweaks, many of which I wouldn’t oppose.

I agree that the 14 day quarantine is a bit arbitrary and is a bit of a compromise between public safety and individual freedom. Frequent post-release testing would be sensible, especially as there’s a risk of being infected in hotel quarantine while exiting. But keeping track of those who have just been released would be a challenge as they’d no doubt feel like their lives have been upended enough at that stage. Again, testing queues are a compromise required to ensure a sufficient volume of tests: bookings and staggered entry would be ideal, of course. Football games are moved to avoid crowd less games: bad for TV coverage and a loss at the gate. And if they’re played in a Covid hotspot, opposing teams may be unable or unwilling to come and incur quarantine restrictions. But I wouldn’t be against your proposals.

It really does come down to whether a possible outbreak should trigger tight restrictions until the extent of infections is known and addressed. NSW will indeed be interesting in this regard.

But for me vaccinations are the key. I don’t have a problem with opening up when we’re approaching herd immunity and everyone has had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated (i.e. both doses). But we’re nowhere near that. For instance, I’ve only had the 1 dose and that gives me only a 33% chance of resisting infection but the 2nd dose in August will increase that to 60-90%.

The main point of difference is when.

The main point of difference is that I think we've gone too hard too early. 

That and I think aspiring to zero is unrealistic. 





Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 06-22-2021

(06-22-2021, 07:19 AM)Mav link Wrote:Don’t worry, that means we’ll have a priority draft pick in the next contact tracing national draft.
Dan would be like our recruiters and stuff that up as well...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Mav - 06-23-2021

Seems the new cases tally is consistently in double figures in NSW. Victorians know all about that ...

They regard a birthday party as a superspreader event, so Sydney’s luck has run out. But it could have been worse: the last outbreak in Melbourne was sparked by some infected people travelling all over the place but in Sydney the infected people have stayed in their local area.

The restrictions are now breeding like rabbits:
  • Visitors to households will be limited to 5 guests — including children
  • Masks will be compulsory in all indoor non-residential settings, including workplaces, and at organised outdoor events
  • Drinking while standing at indoor venues will not be allowed
  • Singing by audiences at indoor shows or by congregants at indoor places of worship will not be allowed
  • Dancing will not be allowed at indoor hospitality venues or nightclubs however, dancing is allowed at weddings for the bridal party only (no more than 20 people)
  • Dance and gym classes limited to 20 per class (masks must be worn)
  • The one person per four square metre rule will be re-introduced for all indoor and outdoor settings, including weddings and funerals
  • Outdoor seated events will be limited to 50 per cent seated capacity
  • Previous public transport capacity limits, represented by green dots, will be reintroduced
Non-essential travel from the affected areas to regional areas is banned.