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+--- Thread: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED (/thread-4677.html)
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - LP - 05-05-2020
(05-05-2020, 07:50 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:Then there's recent research like this - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1[table][tr][td]Thomas Meunier[/td]
[td]RESEARCH ASSOCIATE III[/td]
[td]Physical Oceanography[/td]
[td]Clark[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
I have to look at each article in it's context. It's the only article ever published in that area of research under that name, in two unrelated locations. It's highly likely to be either a bot written fake article that has hijacked the authors name, a common tactic used by predatory journals that is now also being exploited for political purposes. The two sites have not provided any peer review as yet.
Even if it's genuine it's a non-specialist publishing an article on a highly specialist subject, so in other words just another opinion like the rest of us! Twitter isn't peer review.
Nice article published HERE in Arstechnica on the problems with Pre-Print archives.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Thryleon - 05-05-2020
(05-05-2020, 07:50 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Not so.
These things follow well established pathways.
Then there's recent research like this - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1
You do understand that the lock down we have experienced is not the way these pandemics are normally dealt with?
Normally, you quarantine the infected and those who will be in deep poo poo if they catch it (the old and immuno compromised).
Our kids and we folk should be getting the f... on with it.
It really is not rocket science.
Dan Andrews is just pulling his pud now.
The testing (which isn't even the antibody test i gather) is a total waste of space and money ($200 a pop I've heard). It proves/shows nothing relevant.
Normally....
I'm 37 years old.
I've yet to live through anything like this. I'd wager most people 20 years my senior haven't either.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - LP - 05-05-2020
(05-05-2020, 12:29 PM)Thryleon date Wrote:Normally....They are implementing the lessons learned form SARS and MERS, so Flyboy77 is partially correct, what they are doing now is not like what they did in the past, because they were so so wrong in the past!
I'm 37 years old.
I've yet to live through anything like this. I'd wager most people 20 years my senior haven't either.
Quote:Evidence indicates that a modern approach to quarantine encompassing a range of options designed to reduce the frequency of social contact can significantly reduce the spread of infectious disease. Such options include short-term, voluntary home curfew; suspension or cancellation of public activities (such as events, mass transit, or access to public buildings); and “snow day” or sheltering-in-place measures. These measures could be employed individually or in concert. In addition to or in place of these strategies, a program of contact surveillance—the monitoring of asymptomatic persons exposed to an infectious disease—could be undertaken.This is an excerpt from a book published in 2004 called Learning from SARS, a book with multiple heavily qualified authors and fully peer reviewed by disease specialists. A reference manual they had available and studied at military academies all over the world as part of training for biological warfare. Yet for many weeks the USA, Britain and other countries failed to react due to stupidly thinking closing borders did something. It was a stupid of a reaction as building a wall to stop foreigners! They were guessing about what COVID-19 would be like, and in the end got it wrong paying a massive price that is nowhere yet near it's peak!
Copyright © 2004, National Academy of Sciences.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92465/
It's not a political tome written after the fact like much of the Twitter quoted rubbish floating around!
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Mav - 05-05-2020
(05-05-2020, 07:50 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:You do understand that the lock down we have experienced is not the way these pandemics are normally dealt with?Hmmm ... the infected are isolated. Those who haven't yet been shown to be infected or uninfected but who, for instance, have come from areas of infection are put into quarantine. Think horses coming in to run in the Melbourne Cup. Perhaps I'm being a bit pedantic. it's not as though you're an expert epidemiologist or medical practitioner. Nor am I. Us non-experts don't really know the terminology or niceties involved in this area. I guess that's why we need the experts.
Normally, you quarantine the infected and those who will be in deep poo poo if they catch it (the old and immuno compromised).
One of the difficulties with Covid-19 is that it is spread by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people. If only infected people turned purple or spat blood from their eyes, isolating the infected would be so much easier.
By the way, I was a bit stunned to find that I'm in the vulnerable category. When I went to the doctor for a check-up, he gave me a blood pressure test and it seems I have hypertension. My record was 164/108. And until Covid-19 came along, I was playing tennis and footy and had no symptoms. That's why they call it the silent killer. Apparently, half of Americans over 50 have elevated blood pressure and I guess Aussies would be similar.
The immuno-compromised might not be all that vulnerable. The immune response of older people might be too extreme: as with lupus, the cytokine storm attacks lungs and other organs and the damage pushes the patients closer to death. Younger people have a relatively weak immune response and that might be a godsend for them.
Strangely enough, some studies suggest nicotine might confer some protection against contracting Covid-19, with nicotine patches being assessed as a prophylactic. The downside for smokers is that they fare much worse if they do catch it.
Long story short, it's a bit hard to figure out who is vulnerable and who isn't. No doubt the experts will understand more as time goes on but armchair experts are kidding themselves if they think they know it all (Trump & Laura Ingraham, I'm looking at you).
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Thryleon - 05-05-2020
(05-05-2020, 12:58 PM)LP link Wrote:They are implementing the lessons learned form SARS and MERS, so Flyboy77 is partially correct, what they are doing now is not like what they did in the past, because they were so so wrong in the past!This is an excerpt from a book published in 2004 called Learning from SARS, a book with multiple heavily qualified authors and fully peer reviewed by disease specialists. A reference manual they had available and studied at military academies all over the world as part of training for biological warfare. Yet for many weeks the USA, Britain and other countries failed to react due to stupidly thinking closing borders did something. It was a stupid of a reaction as building a wall to stop foreigners! They were guessing about what COVID-19 would be like, and in the end got it wrong paying a massive price that is nowhere yet near it's peak!
It's not a political tome written after the fact like much of the Twitter quoted rubbish floating around!
My Point being is that no one, without exception has seen a disease like COVID19 before, and everyone is flying very much by the seat of their pants.
https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/
This is not nor does it look anything like COVID19, and the response has been remarkably different because like I stated previously, in April of 2019, 18300+ positive cases of Influenza vs 100+ in 2020. That is nationally tested in laboratories and even so, we are still seeing new cases of COVID19 on a daily basis, numbering no where near Influenza levels.
Imagine we had not started washing our hands every 5 mins, most people continued about their business like normal what may have occurred. I think we are yet to really see what this thing can do, but we are about to find out. Thats speculation on my behalf, but I doubt we have seen the last of this thing.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - kruddler - 05-06-2020
(05-05-2020, 10:36 PM)Thryleon link Wrote:My Point being is that no one, without exception has seen a disease like COVID19 before, and everyone is flying very much by the seat of their pants.
Us, as an intelligent being, have the ability to write things down and go back through generations to learn from situations like this.
The 'spanish' flu is one such example.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html
Quote:The virus spread to Philadelphia on September 19, 1918, through the Philadelphia Navy Yard, UPenn states. In a matter of days, 600 sailors had the virus.
Yet Philadelphia didn't cancel its Liberty Loan Parade, scheduled for just a little more than a week later. Meant to be a patriotic wartime effort, the parade went on as scheduled on September 28, bringing 200,000 Philadelphians together.
By October 1, there were 635 new cases in Philadelphia, according to UPenn.
Philadelphia was one of the hardest-hit US cities. More than 12,000 people died in six weeks, with about 47,000 reported cases, according to UPenn. By the six-month mark, about 16,000 had died and there were more than half a million cases.
Quote:St. Louis, for example, canceled its parade while Philadelphia did not. In the end, the death toll in St. Louis did not rise above 700, according to the CDC.
The Spanish flu spread throughout the world and had 3 peaks, philadelphia basically being responsible for one with their refusal to follow the guidelines.
Everyone KNEW the guidelines, but people thought they were better than them (*looks at trump*) and now they are being made to look silly.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - LP - 05-07-2020
(05-06-2020, 10:29 AM)kruddler date Wrote:The Spanish flu spread throughout the world and had 3 peaks, Philadelphia basically being responsible for one with their refusal to follow the guidelines.War was a complication, some of the decisions to not report or publicly demonstrate strength were related to propaganda.
Everyone KNEW the guidelines, but people thought they were better than them (*looks at trump*) and now they are being made to look silly.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Thryleon - 05-07-2020
(05-06-2020, 10:29 AM)kruddler link Wrote:Us, as an intelligent being, have the ability to write things down and go back through generations to learn from situations like this.
The 'spanish' flu is one such example.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html
The Spanish flu spread throughout the world and had 3 peaks, philadelphia basically being responsible for one with their refusal to follow the guidelines.
Everyone KNEW the guidelines, but people thought they were better than them (*looks at trump*) and now they are being made to look silly.
I feel pretty good about the idea that we live our lives very differently today than the world did in 1919 (population density) and that most people who lived through the Spanish flu aren't able to recall those times very well.
My contention is that we haven't really started our covid battle.
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Professer E - 05-07-2020
Damn straight. This saga has barely started and already people are starting to treat it like a joke. We had sunny ANZAC weekend a fortnight ago and we're seeing the curve tick upwards again. 99% of the community is clueless.... Lock down, what lock down?
Re: 2020 SEASON SUSPENDED - Milhanna13 - 05-08-2020
One of the NRL head honchos quoted a stat that a player was 10,000 to 1 to get Covid.
Now, Im no statistician - but - apply that to 500 players, plus prob the same number of coaches and officials (1,000 people involved in a potential re-start)……. doesn't that mean the odds are 10 to 1 that someone will get infected (which, I imagine would lead to the comp being shut down again)??
those are pretty skinny odds that you isolate a whole community, away from their families, and then it doesn't actually work