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CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-07-2021

Notice the the bulk of the media hasn't reported that it was the Pfizer vaccine that elderly lady had just before she perished, why?

Do you think the reports would be the same if it were AstraZeneca?

The truth is, just like AstraZeneca, it's coincidence, noting more and nothing less.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-07-2021

(04-07-2021, 10:55 AM)flyboy77 date Wrote:John Ioannidis has just crunched the numbers - again - 
 Bah humbug.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-07-2021

(03-30-2021, 11:19 PM)LP date Wrote:I suspect this is Novavax putting the mechanisms in place to get around any potential EU export bans. They are putting a supply chain structure in place that won't be easily regulated without massively disrupting normal trade.
I see we have been taking sly deliveries of AstraZeneca from the UK factory, I suspect if we'd been a bit proactive and put a deal in place with Novavax we be getting them from them as well, as they use UK production to work around the EU restrictions.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 04-08-2021

(04-07-2021, 09:56 PM)LP link Wrote:Math doesn't make any assumptions, people make assumptions, sometimes people make assumptions because they don't understand the math. It's not just a before or after, it can be either.

Of course the models aren't perfect, but they are still far far better than human assumptions or human common sense.

I learnt in high school that you can get the math wrong by plugging the wrong mix of values in even if you use the correct method to calculating.

I also learnt that statistics relies on consistent outcomes.

This is where it falls over.  Going back to driving for a moment, if you drive a car quickly and further more frequently your chance of being in an accident should rise consistent with the math, but you don't actually assert that and when I raised this point you guickly dismissed it.

The stats don't state this.  They throw out different numbers which is where the anomalies come from.  They assert that the risk is 1 in x will have an accident.  Thing is, you can be 1 in 1 and have an accident, or you can drive your whole life and not be in one.  This isn't about debunking the stats, its just that the stats are a guide not a guarantee and depending on your fortune, you may end up with different outcomes irrespective of what the studies show.

I go back to covid for one moment.  We have a small sample size that is heavily weighted to elderly in assisted living/aged care scenarios as the majority of our cases.  Using stats as a study, the numbers and outcomes are a sample size biased by our sample group are they not?  If so, then we actually don't have sound data to form a reasonable understanding of what outcomes we are going to see with respect to covid.

Its not our data we are using its data from abroad.  If we take a moment to realise our population live in vastly different conditions and have a different health profile perhaps we might end up with the stats not telling us much but what scenario we could end up with instead of what we will end up with.

Does that make sense?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-08-2021

(04-08-2021, 01:45 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:I go back to covid for one moment.  We have a small sample size that is heavily weighted to elderly in assisted living/aged care scenarios as the majority of our cases.  Using stats as a study, the numbers and outcomes are a sample size biased by our sample group are they not?  If so, then we actually don't have sound data to form a reasonable understanding of what outcomes we are going to see with respect to covid.

Its not our data we are using its data from abroad.  If we take a moment to realise our population live in vastly different conditions and have a different health profile perhaps we might end up with the stats not telling us much but what scenario we could end up with instead of what we will end up with.

Does that make sense?
No.

The sample size is not small, the disease is global. You can't claim things are different here as an exemption from the global reality.

What sort of ethnicity or society makes someone or some region exempt from the global trend? Even in your own case, the figures in Greece are probably even more relevant for yourself than the figures in Australia, as many risks might be fundamentally genetic, and Greece is in a huge COVID hole!

Critics cannot arbitrarily segment the facts and data, some want to argue against the vaccine based on Norway, then they claim that what happens overseas is not relevant. It's a form of cherry-picking.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 04-08-2021

UK looking at looking at stopping AstraZ use for under 30's....

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 04-08-2021

(04-08-2021, 01:49 AM)LP link Wrote:No.

The sample size is not small, the disease is global. You can't claim things are different here as an exemption from the global reality.

What sort of ethnicity or society makes someone or some region exempt from the global trend? Even in your own case, the figures in Greece are probably even more relevant for yourself than the figures in Australia, as many risks might be fundamentally genetic, and Greece is in a huge COVID hole!

Critics cannot arbitrarily segment the facts and data, some want to argue against the vaccine based on Norway, then they claim that what happens overseas is not relevant. It's a form of cherry-picking.

Actually I can.

We have different population density.

We have different healthcare networks and living standards.
You cannot apply the same situation to a nation that has free healthcare like us vs the pay for service model operated in the USA as one example.

We are not third world.  Our nation is quite young, our infrastructure quite new.

Given we have different variants and mutations of covid there is no guarantee that the data from some nations is even relevant with respect to what can and will happen here.

Im sorry to have burst your bubble.  It looks like you haven't considered that whilst swallowing the company line hook line and sinker.



Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 04-08-2021

The experts have spoken.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - madbluboy - 04-08-2021

If I was over 50 I wouldn't be feeling confident.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 04-08-2021

(04-08-2021, 04:14 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:We have different population density.
Cities are the main COVID driver, 3rd world dispersed regions are not a feature.....so far!

COVID mutates where it is, you don't need to import anything! Wink