(03-12-2021, 11:14 PM)flyboy77 date Wrote:The Brit Nic Lewis is onto it too.

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/

It's all about the heterogeneity of populations.

15% to 20% might even get the job done.....

(03-12-2021, 11:23 PM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Here's an interesting table - Sweden barely makes it into the top 20 in Europe yet is an "appalling failure".

When all these other countries ran with draconian lockdowns, masking, et etc - screwed economies, destroyed people's lives and livelihoods etc.

But Sweden is the failure?

You do realise Sweden has a very liberal reporting system too right - in many countries a lot of the Swedish deaths would not be attributed to CV19?

And their economy barely stuttered.

What planet are you guys smoking on?

(03-13-2021, 01:24 AM)DJC date Wrote:Just going back to Fly's reference to the Great Barrington Declaration.  This declaration was released by a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists, many of whom have no relevant experience and all of whom have their own particular barrows to push.

(03-13-2021, 01:31 AM)LP link Wrote:@DJC Unfortunately, we like to think scientists and doctors are empathic and heavily invested in the social good, but like any sector of society you can find some portion on a spectrum who prefer self over self-sacrifice. A percentage will always prefer strategies to preserve wealth and privilege over welfare, and fundamentally that is what GBD and others argue, the death of the downtrodden is a necessary sacrifice society must make to ensure the wealthy stay free and privileged. 1%ers, like so many other 1%ers.

You cannot logically debate with them, because they see the world selfishly, their actions belie the meaning of their words.

This is why they also commonly protest masks, not because they can't see the good it does for others, but because they can't bear the inconvenience it does to themselves.

(03-12-2021, 11:14 PM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Wrong, wrong and wrong. And no, those statements are a direct result of internal political pressures.....on Tegnell.

Gee David, get up to speed before you launch with that sort of stuff.

Read some of Gabriela Gomes' work.

The Brit Nic Lewis is onto it too.

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/

It's all about the heterogeneity of populations.

15% to 20% might even get the job done.....

As for the claim that Sweden has been an appalling failure, again rubbish.

The only ones saying  Sweden is a failure is the MSM - the data does not reflect that at all.

And of course we couldn't acknowledge that the time tested methods, universally deployed, up to the end of 2019, are the optimum path.

Even with Ebola, lockdowns were never recommended., let alone mandated.

Why compare only to small Nordic nations? Strawman stuff.

Against the bigger Euro nations, they have done very well indeed.

I've already put up data on age adjusted excess deaths.....and if you want more on the Nordic comparison.....

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3674138

It's all out there, most just don't do their homework but still feel happy to espouse vacuous claims.

Quote:Given an R0 value before lockdowns in most countries of between 2·5 to 3·5, we estimate the herd immunity required is about 60–72%. If the proportional vaccine efficacy, ε, is considered, the simple expression for pc becomes [1 – 1 / R0] / ε. If we assume ε is 0·8 (80%), then the herd immunity required becomes 75–90% for the defined range of R0 values. For lower efficacies, the entire population would have to be immunised. These overall estimates ignore heterogeneities that can make these figures lower or higher in specific locations.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext

(03-13-2021, 01:58 AM)Baggers date Wrote:Ah, so many truths in these comments, Spotted One. I would only make one correction and one elaboration.

Instead of the word, 'selfish', I would call it for what it is - narcissism.

The elaboration is with the psychology of the 'far right' type. They're fear based and terrified of losing control and their dangerous, lame and oft pathetic attempts at fighting everything is just to regain some sense of control... which they'll never succeed at whilst they are psychologically fear-based in the brain box.

Quote:Norway and Sweden are kindred countries in regards to ethnicity, administrative systems, socioeconomics, and public health care systems. Furthermore, both have reliable, stringent, timely, and comprehensive registration of deaths.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

(03-13-2021, 03:06 AM)DJC date Wrote:A recent epidemiological study comparing Norway and Sweden:

Interestingly, the study postulates that Sweden's COVID-19 death toll may not be as bad as it appears because the excess mortality rate has not increased.  However, Sweden's mortality rate has been declining for several years and I think it's a case of more research required.