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+--- Thread: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications (/thread-6287.html)
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - kruddler - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 08:03 AM)PaulP link Wrote:I'd be curious to know how those of us on the outside can adjudicate when the MC picks the wrong team. Is it when we lose ? When they make selections that we don't agree with ? When some particular player has a bad game ?
Sure the MC are human and can make mistakes, but so are we human, which means we can also make errors, and when that is combined with the fact that we have gaps all over the place when it comes to knowing how to pick a team, I'm flummoxed at how people can be so super confident that they're right. If our MC is that shaky, please apply for a job at the club. We need all the help we can get.
If you predict what going to happen based on the team that's picked....and then it happens...is that dumb luck? Coincidence? Perhaps it's people knowing a thing or 2 about football.
This year we have been better than in the past. Less games won or lost at the mc meetings than at anytime in the past. In years gone by, the team selection has been VERY average.
Vossy played his hand early when he basically said we'd be playing 2 rucks and Harry (and Charlie goes without saying) at the press conference after the dees game. That gives the opposition the whole week to plan for that.
At least keep some mystery about it.
Look, everyone has said their piece. I doubt anyone is going to change their minds.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - PaulP - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 09:37 AM)kruddler link Wrote:If you predict what going to happen based on the team that's picked....and then it happens...is that dumb luck? Coincidence? Perhaps it's people knowing a thing or 2 about football.
This year we have been better than in the past. Less games won or lost at the mc meetings than at anytime in the past. In years gone by, the team selection has been VERY average.
Vossy played his hand early when he basically said we'd be playing 2 rucks and Harry (and Charlie goes without saying) at the press conference after the dees game. That gives the opposition the whole week to plan for that.
At least keep some mystery about it.
Look, everyone has said their piece. I doubt anyone is going to change their minds.
There's not much to predict. We either win, draw or lose. Given the number of variables in play, how you can possibly say a loss was because the MC picked a team you don't agree with ? Why not 50 other possible reasons that we lost, nothing at all to do with the team selection ? My posts in this space are essentially a plea for a little modesty, a little perspective, and a little humility. I've said it before - if we tested our ideas about team selection with Voss and the MC, we wouldn't last 2 minutes. This has nothing to do with intelligence, and everything to do with lack of experience and lack of access to information. If you need 20 pieces of information to make an informed decision, and we are lucky have two or three, then you can't make the correct decision. This is simply logic IMO.
In 2022, Geelong played 2 rucks and 2 KPF the whole year. Rhys Stanley played 20 games, Blicavs 24. Jeremy Cameron played 24 games, Hawkins 25. That's basically 4 talls the whole season, and the 4 of them played in all 3 finals. History shows 2 rucks and 2 kpf can work. I don't see why this setup is such a bad idea, and I don't see why we can't make it work.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - kruddler - 10-07-2023
OK, well if its as simplistic as win lose or draw, then there is no point continuing this conversation.
Just like we are not Collingwood.
We are not Geelong.
Team balance, i've been talking about it all year and it relates to OUR team, not anybody elses team. Our players make our team different to every other team.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - PaulP - 10-07-2023
Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.
If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - Lods - 10-07-2023
The whole thing really boils down to expectations.
At the end of the home and away season we had a discussion about expectations.
Many of us said that the effort would prove too much in the end.
With the pressure of getting to finals, our finishing position and the likelihood of interstate travel, coupled with some players carrying injuries it would be..."a bridge too far"
This prediction was made before finals began.
For those people we probably exceeded expectations.
For others there was the line of thinking..."Why can't we go all the way?"
For those people we fell at the second last hurdle.
We failed to meet their hopes and expectations.
They'll be looking for reasons why, perhaps ignoring the most obvious....we just ran out of steam, and came up against a superior opponent on their home deck.
Or maybe it's a combination of a lot of factors, and perhaps selection reasons we're not privy too.
So we can look for reasons why.
Was it selections or exhaustion?
Kruddler is right, we'll stick fast to our own belief as to why we didn't progress further and there really is no point trying to change folk's minds.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - kruddler - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 10:22 AM)PaulP link Wrote:Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.
If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.
You are not even reading what i'm writing anymore.
....and perhaps if not a single person of note in CFC doesn't believe that, then thats why we were watching the GF rather than playing in it.
I've had this discussion all year, trying to point out the unimportance of 2 rucks. Nobody listens.
We manage to beat Freo with zero rucks and despite being going to be 'beaten up' by the big mean Sean Darcy.....we manage to win by 50+ points....in Perth. Only then people start to realise its somewhat possible to play with only 1 ruck.....seeing as we didn't need any rucks.
Fast forward 10+ weeks and people have forgotten all about that. :
and fallen back into their old critiques like it never happened.Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - DJC - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 10:22 AM)PaulP link Wrote:Geelong wasn't left unbalanced by playing those 4, and there's nothing about playing Pittonet, De Koning, McKay and Charlie Curnow that makes us unbalanced. There's not a single person of note in the CFC who would believe that, not one.
If Collingwood had our 4 players, they would play each and every week.
I’m not sure that Pitto and the King would be selected ahead of Cox and Cameron but Collingwood won the premiership with two genuine, lumbering rucks and two key forwards. Admittedly, one of the key forwards was a bit of a decoy because their first choice KPF was injured.
Of course, both of Collingwood’s rucks are a threat when they go forward. Neither managed a goal in the GF, but they demand a decent defender.
The idea that we’re unbalanced with two rucks and two tall forwards doesn’t stack up, particularly since the alternative is two tall forwards, one ruck and a third tall forward/undersized ruck.
That’s not to say that Brisbane model - one outstanding ruckman backed up by one of their two tall forwards - isn’t effective. It worked quite well against us, but there were other factors at play. However, it wasn’t effective against Collingwood.
I don’t understand the reasoning behind some of our team selections but I do understand that the reasoning behind those decisions is based on more and much better information than I have, as well as far superior footy understanding and knowledge. Games of footy aren’t lost by the MC. They’re lost because the players aren’t good enough or they’re not at their best, or the gameplan is flawed or not executed well enough.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - PaulP - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 10:39 AM)kruddler link Wrote:...........................
....and perhaps if not a single person of note in CFC doesn't believe that, then thats why we were watching the GF rather than playing in it.
Right. So if the club follows some rando on the internet rather than its own team of experts, we would be holding aloft No17 right about now. Got it. Now I understand. Thanks for the clarification.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - PaulP - 10-07-2023
(10-07-2023, 11:39 AM)DJC link Wrote:..........................................................................
I don’t understand the reasoning behind some of our team selections but I do understand that the reasoning behind those decisions is based on more and much better information than I have, as well as far superior footy understanding and knowledge. Games of footy aren’t lost by the MC. They’re lost because the players aren’t good enough or they’re not at their best, or the gameplan is flawed or not executed well enough.
I agree. I also find some MC decisions bizarre, but the starting point has to be that the MC has probably got it right, and we should try to understand why those decisions were made, even if most of the time we can only guess. Far too many think if their team is different to the MC, then the MC must be in error, which IMO, has it completely back to front.
Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications - LP - 10-07-2023
The Freo win was great tactical coaching by Voss, midfield gold, it's not a new tactic, but it's not one any opposition had seen us use before. They have now and it won't be as effective next time.
Also, it takes a heavy toll on the midfield group, and once opposition have seen it they get a heads up at selection like sounding an air raid siren!
Leaving it tactically viable only against select opponents who are playing injured / unfit rucks once every couple of seasons.
The 24x7 grunt option is what happens when the situation is normal, that is the Handbaggers and Filth. For all his foibles, Scott is a great manager of players through the season, he knows what takes a toll on players and how to find ways to get them through the season while managing the load.
PS; Scott tried our Freo tactic against us, when Blicsav and Stanley were limping through the game against us, how did that go for them? It doesn't always have to be a MC selection tactic, sometimes it happens in game out of a necessity.