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Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Lods - 05-05-2016
The thing about Trump is that most experienced US Political observers are as stunned with this as we are.
If they can't predict it then what hope do we have.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - cookie2 - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 03:47 AM)ItsOurTime link Wrote:More likely that they would just not vote. Its a wishful thinking analysis anyway. It's exactly the analysis which suggested that Rubio woild get more delegates as rivals dropped out because who would side with trump over the other candidates?
Turns out most of them and with lots on momentum on his side coupled with an ever faltering Clinton at an almost unelectable approval rating (only thing going for her is Trumps' is actually worse) ot will be a close call.
For some Republicans, the prospect of a President Clinton is more palatable than a President Trump - not because they like Clinton but because they could fight her on familiar terrain, rather than watching an unpredictable Trump use the power of the White House to remake the GOP.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/im-with-her-antitrump-republicans-are-considering-a-vote-for-hillary-clinton-20160504-gomlx2.html#ixzz47keurtZF
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - laj - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 04:09 AM)Lods link Wrote:The thing about Trump is that most experienced US Political observers are as stunned with this as we are.
If they can't predict it then what hope do we have.
Polls didn't get Trump's result wrong though.
The other thing you can near bet on is that the Republicans are so fractured that many of their voters, who think he's a loose cannon, will vote Democrats. Many have said as such already. I assume there's many swinging voters like anywhere and many will swing from the Republicans.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - cookie2 - 05-05-2016
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/trump-v-clinton-america-now-faces-a-truly-appalling-choice-20160505-gomq2r.html
The poor US voters - a stark choice to be made! Interesting times ahead for sure.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Lods - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 04:20 AM)laj link Wrote:Polls didn't get Trump's result wrong though.
The other thing you can near bet on is that the Republicans are so fractured that many of their voters, who think he's a loose cannon, will vote Democrats. Many have said as such already. I assume there's many swinging voters like anywhere and many will swing from the Republicans.
The polls probably won't get it wrong a week out from the election either.
But any poll taken now is totally worthless.
Trump has a habit of reversing poll results over a period of time
Any poll taken now doesn't factor a whole range of things.
-How will they go in the face to face general election campaign
-What will happen if the Republican machinery stops trying to block Trump and starts working for him
-Who will be his vice presidential choice and what effect will that have.
All of these factors could have the effect of narrowing any current poll gap.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - ElwoodBlues1 - 05-05-2016
The people wanting Trump will actually physically vote for him...the people who dont want him are no certs to rock up on polling day and vote....thats the worry I have.
Imagine Trump and Nth Korea's Kim J shaping nuclear policy in the region... :o
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Lods - 05-05-2016
We really don't know what we're getting with Trump should he become President....
He could be the ''fruit loop'' we all fear (in which case be very afraid) ....or he could run it like a business and surround himself with a group of competent people, the best at what they do, and it all turns out hunky dory.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - cookie2 - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 06:58 AM)Lods link Wrote:We really don't know what we're getting with Trump should he become President....
He could be the ''fruit loop'' we all fear (in which case be very afraid) ....or he could run it like a business and surround himself with a group of competent people, the best at what they do, and it all turns out hunky dory.
Could indeed be a very cunning campaign where Trump is presenting himself as very non-establishment and closely in tune with the hopes and fears of the average American Joe. Once he's in the White House, as you say, he kisses and makes up with the traditional GOP establishment and transmutes into somthing a lot more conventional and orthodox.
The guy is primarily a salesman, hustler even.
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - Lods - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 07:17 AM)cookie2 link Wrote:The guy is primarily a salesman, hustler even.
And very good at it
Re: US Presidential Election 2016 - ItsOurTime - 05-05-2016
(05-05-2016, 04:16 AM)cookie2 link Wrote:For some Republicans, the prospect of a President Clinton is more palatable than a President Trump - not because they like Clinton but because they could fight her on familiar terrain, rather than watching an unpredictable Trump use the power of the White House to remake the GOP.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/im-with-her-antitrump-republicans-are-considering-a-vote-for-hillary-clinton-20160504-gomlx2.html#ixzz47keurtZF
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Not saying that this wasnt reported but the analysis is off the mark.