CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version

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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 02-07-2021

(02-07-2021, 10:29 PM)DJC link Wrote:Even when it comes from the head of the international quarantine organisation?

Symptom and infection variability are features of COVID - according to the scientific literature.

For example, the latest quarantine worker to test positive has a very low viral load and is unlikely to be infectious.

Especially when it comes from the head of a quarantine organisation.

Quote:When are viral load and viral shedding the highest?

The temporal patterns of viral shedding vary among different infections. The consensus for COVID-19 is that the viral load and viral shedding are highest on early days of the infection, peaking on or before symptoms onset. One study estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before the first symptoms show up. Another study monitored viral shedding over the course of disease progression and found that viral shedding drops 5 days after symptoms onset and stops after day 10.

COVID-19’s temporal shedding profile is in stark contrast to SARS. Viral shedding for COVID-19 peaks much earlier, and at much higher levels. Unfortunately, heaving shedding early in infection makes it harder to contain the virus, which likely contribute to COVID-19’s rapid spread.

For a virus that is both highly transmissable, and virulent, to the point where we are quaranting at all, the fact that someone in that setting tests positive (after becoming symptomatic), and isn't highly contagious should ring some massive alarm bells as far as I am concerned.

Look, I am no tin foil hat wearer nor anti vaxer despite [member=153]LP[/member] 's greatest attempts to paint me as one, and yet this sounds and reads like absolute bollocks.

[member=153]LP[/member] you really need to stop paraphrasing, and inferring meaning into my comments, and I would appreciate having this forum to ask these questions, rather than the real world where the repercussions regarding all of this are a little more permanent.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 02-08-2021

(02-07-2021, 11:32 PM)Thryleon date Wrote:For a virus that is both highly transmissable, and virulent, to the point where we are quaranting at all, the fact that someone in that setting tests positive (after becoming symptomatic), and isn't highly contagious should ring some massive alarm bells as far as I am concerned.

[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ How come you haven't caught COVID-19, from your work description you are one step away from the deep end?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 12:56 AM)LP link Wrote:[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ How come you haven't caught COVID-19, from your work description you are one step away from the deep end?

[member=153]LP[/member]
I would appreciate having this forum to ask questions and not be on trial thankyou.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 12:58 AM)Thryleon date Wrote:[member=153]LP[/member]
I would appreciate having this forum to ask questions and not be on trial thankyou.

[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ You mentioned your workplace exposure, it's sounds comparable to the quarantine workers if not even higher risk, why not relate that experience?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 02-08-2021

Nobody's posts or communications, no matter how trivial the content, forum or medium, are entitled to be free of analysis, rebuttal or responsibility.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 01:01 AM)LP link Wrote:[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ You mentioned your workplace exposure, it's sounds comparable to the quarantine workers if not even higher risk, why not relate that experience?

Why should I answer this question, when you have already formed an opinion on your answer, with no respect to my experience nor why I am asking the question? Seriously LP, this is more than just someone asserting an opinion here, and pretending to be right or wrong, and like I said before, I am not on trial, I am not a COVID denier, nor do I think that the pandemic is crap, but there are inconsistencies arising that just seem like logical fallousy and I am doing my best to understand them (no thanks to your opinionated response of "hes effectively an anti vaxxer and no amount of evidence will convince him otherwise", which is something you stated about me, and not something I stated about myself, which I find abhorrent).

So, I will provide a point to ponder here and answer you with an example of my experience (yes, its been a long 12 months), and rather than simply attack what is going to be said, let it sink in for a moment, and consider this from a very balanced and logical perspective, free from your previous biases and assertions.

In 1 circumstance, we had a colleague test positive. That colleague took the virus home and infected the 5 people they live with, resulting in a small cluster forming in Heidelberg (you guys will remember that one it happened towards the end of our second lock down). The source of that infection was a patient, that became covid positive post admission, and anyone who went into that ward was required to be tested. It seemed relatively straight forward. If it made its way through the PPE procedures, it spread to others as a virus does. Fair enough too right? Anyone who was in contact with said person in the workplace, did so whilst taking the appropriate precautions, and seem to have dodged this infection more by good luck as well as precaution than design. This colleague consequently DID infect the 5 people they live with, and all family members tested positive. This is inline with what my expectations of this virus, and pandemic do, and that makes sense.

Now, we have someone from hotel quarantine become covid positive. They went out, with members of their family and people of their household, and despite this being a more virulent, and infections strain, somehow didnt manage to transmit to their family and household. This is not in keeping with what my expectations of this pandemic and virus are all about.

I am questioning this, because, I seek to understand, what changes here. Sure, the PPE preparation etc prevents spread to other members of public/workplace (because frankly, you dont get on the good foot and do the bad thing with everyone you work with), but it stands to reason, that the people you share living quarters, and meals with, are more likely to become covid positive living in the same place as someone else is COVID positive particularly if no one is aware that said person is actually covid positive.

Rather than attack that point, contemplate it. You aren't rebutting anything here, you have simply attacked the poster, for asking the questions (and jumped straight on the offensive), and then instead of seeking to understand the trepidation they might have, simply asserted that there should be no trepidation. THAT is where I am having some serious issues with you in this topic, and this is why when you state the following:

(02-08-2021, 01:06 AM)LP link Wrote:Nobody's posts or communications, no matter how trivial the content, forum or medium, are entitled to be free of analysis, rebuttal or responsibility.

You actually are failing to analyse, understand or rebutt, you are simply trying to paint someone as something they arent, and attack them for having an opinion that questions the status quo.

last I checked, we should welcome and question opposing ideas but I dont think what you are doing here is that, instead you are shutting down what i am saying with what I would call a pseudo scientific analysis of data. Note, I am not seeking to silence anyone with respect to this pandemic, or vaccine, or anything. I am simply asking some questions surrounding what I am seeing is some inconsistencies with how this pandemic is playing out. Even so, I am unlikely to go on a tirade, or join a protest in the city, or even try to convince people what to do, but I do have some real questions about these inconsistencies, and they come having had some contact with a few different people from a few different walks of life who all agree that there are some rather uncomfortable versions of the truth out there, that only become truth by asserting they are the truth ignoring bits of information along the way. Isnt that what we call a bias?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 02-08-2021

[member=105]Thryleon[/member]‍ So many generalisations, what would the differences between that example Heidelberg case and the Quarantine workers case?

That example you provide isn't what I asked, I asked why you haven't caught COVID-19 based on what you have described as your workplace, what do you think is the reason?

It's just as valid for me to ask that question, as it is for you to compare or question why Heidelberg spread while Quarantine didn't.

You can try to paint these questions as personal but they are far far from it, they are investigative, I'm sorry it makes you uncomfortable. You are not the only one permitted to pose a question!

Ask all the questions you like, post all the answers you like, but don't spin whenever what you post is questioned by some 3rd party.

The act of posting invites analysis!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - kruddler - 02-08-2021

So given this latest AO positive test has come from nothing.

Is it safe to assume it was a false positive?

Are we at the stage where we realise that 1 positive covid case does not mean we need to send the city into lockdown? The chances of a false positive are more likely than an actual positive nowadays,

Are we jumping at shadows a bit at the moment?

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 05:16 AM)kruddler date Wrote:So given this latest AO positive test has come from nothing.

Is it safe to assume it was a false positive?

Are we at the stage where we realise that 1 positive covid case does not mean we need to send the city into lockdown? The chances of a false positive are more likely than an actual positive nowadays,

Are we jumping at shadows a bit at the moment?

Yes [member=20]kruddler[/member] all good points, but have they given up confirming the source?

I think controlling the virus with diligence buys enough time not to have to over-react, but it still isn't a green light to resume post-COVID normal. The current problem seems to be that the recent cases show a degree of latency in virulence.

I'm not sure what the protocol is for reporting, do they report before they have confirmation, of course if they have identified a strain then it won't be a false positive. I gather this has changed greatly since the 1st wave, because the test result lead-time has plummeted.

I think from reporting they already moved past the false positive stage, as [member=324]DJC[/member] mentioned I believe they have already assessed viral load in the latest case, so it can't be a false positive.

I'm not sure what to make of a virus that is somewhat benign in so many but lethal in others, it's like a game of Russian Roulette!

PS; I had to laugh this morning, very early in the day after the latest case hit the news a radio station described Off Ya Tree as a florist!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - DJC - 02-08-2021

(02-07-2021, 11:24 PM)LP link Wrote:Yes it's quite interesting, I read an article recently that also raised issues with the validity of the 14 day quarantine when operating rolling quarantine. People moving in or out of quarantine at different stages from the same location. The call was for quarantine in batches, but to do that effectively you need a separate isolated facility for each day of arrivals on a first in / first out basis. Is there anywhere in the world operating quarantine this way?

I did read that specific hotel floors are now being designated, the State Government is spending $M on altering ducting and airflow in these hotels, or shutting down whole floors when they share some circulation.

The latest NSW case tested positive two days after completing 14 days quarantine. It seems that infection may have occurred during quarantine ... or has the virus mutated again?

The problem is that we are playing catch up, but will the punters put up with measures to get ahead of the game?