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+--- Thread: Where are our goals going to come from? (/thread-6246.html)
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - DJC - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 08:52 AM)kruddler link Wrote:2023 - 23 games
2022 - 22 games
2021 - 22 games (with a sacked coach)
An extra game doesn't explain 71 more scoring shots.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - kruddler - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 09:34 AM)DJC link Wrote:An extra game doesn't explain 71 more scoring shots.
Never said it did.
But to be pedantic, its not scoring shots. Its behinds.
That includes rushed behinds, but wouldn't include shots that missed everything.
Ultimately, its team gets better = more scoring shots.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - Thryleon - 08-30-2023
It also doesn't explain the difference in ratio where we are almost goals behind parity.
In previous years we scored more efficiently.
The point I'm making is that there is a lot of scope for improvement.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - laj - 08-30-2023
(08-29-2023, 08:20 AM)PaulP link Wrote:https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/29/each-afl-clubs-highest-individual-goal-percentages-of-2023/One can bogged down with silly stats. We've been pumping sides so been doing something right.
It's good for Curnow, and good for the fans, but personally, I don't like seeing one bloke kick 30% of our goals. And it's 3x as much as the next guy. The Brisbane and Collingwood profiles are more sustainable IMO.
I'm guessing the like of Jason Dunstall kicked a fair percentage of Hawthorn's goals in the golden era. If you get the ball into the F50 efficiently then you can get your key forward one out. If not, we have plenty of others kicking goals in the last 10 weeks. Mids and smaller forwards have had a picnic during that period. If Charlie didn't kick them, someone else was. If any side has the best key forward in the competition, then they'll kick that percentage of goals or more. Also remember, we have had basically 2 seasons, the first 13 weeks and the last 10 weeks where we dominated the competition. So you need 2 sets of stats for starters.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - kruddler - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 11:09 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:It also doesn't explain the difference in ratio where we are almost goals behind parity.
In previous years we scored more efficiently.
The point I'm making is that there is a lot of scope for improvement.
I've got something that explains the difference. Human error.
https://afltables.com/afl/teams/carlton/season.html
2023 - 275.272.1922
2022 - 268.249.1857
2021 - 250.246.1746
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - laj - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 08:26 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:2023 - 275 goals, 272 behinds
2022 - 268 goals, 208 behinds
2021 - 250 goals, 201 behinds
You know, this is as simple as it gets when it comes to scoring and ratios.
We've had way more scoring shots than last year, converted less of them consistently.
That being said, weve had 2 heavy wins vs the Eagles, which contributed to 19 of Charlie's goals in 2 matches.
Harry's conversion ratio is way down on his average. His scoring totals normally convert 60% of his shots into goals at worst, and this season he is at about 50% and thats not including out of bounds on the full.
Instantly that explains a lot of our reliance on charlie away.
Ultimately, whatever will work works, and the rest is just details.
Let's not get too wound up with stats. We've really had only a 10 week season. Forget the previous 13 weeks where we were barely interested. That 13 weeks we relied on Charlie as no-one else could kick a goal. We spent about 4 weeks at one stage kicking no more than 6 goals a game as a team. Tell about the last 10 weeks when we were committed and on fire.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - kruddler - 08-30-2023
Further to the above....
2023 - 275.206 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html
2022 - 268.208 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2022s.html
2021 - 250.201 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html
Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - dodge - 08-30-2023
Maths says Thry is right - 275.272=1,922 points for the season as per the ladder
This is 106 more points than last season but we played one more game
Pity we didn't score a couple more points last season.
Who cares - it doesn't matter what we score as long it is more than the opposition and isn't Ross Lyon brand footy.
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - LP - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 11:22 AM)kruddler date Wrote:Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.I've seen this "error" before in AFL reporting, it's the incorrect / correct use different types of averages.
For example if you look at some sites they will report we "average" 9 behinds per game, 9 x 23 = 207 behinds, yet we've scored 272 behinds. If readers start filtering kicked versus rushed and the like, it starts to make sense but the websites reporting the stats do not make that clear. So the subtotals are 207 kicked behinds + 65 rushed = 272.
Averages reported for goals are always correct for the obvious reason you can only kick a goal.
It's difficult / labour intensive to retrospectively look at the figures because historically many stat sites haven't differentiated kicked versus rushed. If we wanted to be really accurate we'd also have to find touched off the boot and hit the post as separate categories.
Finally, compared to the past the game has changed so much, all the banana kicks with check-side, leg and off-breaks, how do you compare that to history and claim one is better than the other? In the past some blokes could kick a drop kick or torp from outside 60m+ on a regular basis, now they do not exist. A drop punt or torp goal from deep in the pocket was almost non-existent, now the deep pocket set shot with the banana is almost preferred!
Re: Where are our goals going to come from? - Thryleon - 08-30-2023
(08-30-2023, 11:22 AM)kruddler link Wrote:Further to the above....I went to the AFL ladder
2023 - 275.206 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html
2022 - 268.208 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2022s.html
2021 - 250.201 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html
Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.