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Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - madbluboy - 12-11-2018
(12-11-2018, 03:42 AM)flyboy77 link Wrote:Didn't notice those teams having two Captains!
Didn't realize that was part of the question but anyway May was co captain with Lynch this year.
Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - Amers - 12-12-2018
Yeah, I thought of Watson and Bob Murphy later on. Bob Murphy's story provides some hope, even if we don't quite reach the same heights.
Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - Thryleon - 05-08-2019
Alright, time to revisit this topic. We are a third of the way through the season, the question marks have come regarding our wins and losses, and this is where we get to see the real reasons why they occur. I will not shift people through where they sit in the table, I am simply going to write down how many games each of these guys played, and keep in mind where each players performances are at:
(11-26-2018, 03:17 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:What I can see happening is that the following players will be picked most weeks unless injured, or struggling for form/fitness majorly with the kids being "ready".
Tier 1. Constants. Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want but these guys give you 4 quarters of bonafide established footy credentials, even if we think we have better youngsters in the next tiers waiting for a game:
Marc Murphy
Kade Simpson
Matthew Kreuzer
Ed Curnow
Dale Thomas
Levi Casboult - Sticks out in this group. He's the last one standing who really doesn't belong here, and the kids have definately gone past, but he gets in here as the second ruckman/forward purely until Kreuzer is looking durable again. I wouldnt want to ruck any of our other youngsters in the event of a Kreuzer break down.
Mitch McGovern
Alex Fasolo - Another one I toyed with, but I had Wright here, and Fasolo is the logical replacement. He probably would have stayed at Collingwood as a backup, so he's probably come here to play footy (and probably will).
Patrick Cripps
Sam Docherty
Lachie Plowman
Liam Jones
Charlie Curnow (still quite green, but he's a first name on the sheet type of player)
Jacob Weitering (stalling a little on his promise, but he and Jones will be first names on the list types in 2019).
These guys are going to be on the team sheet first. These guys are only going to be excluded from selection if they are struggling big time in which case we will go the following tiers instead. Sure some kids might go past a few of them, but I've gravitated towards bonafide experienced bodies in this camp for a reason. Some will only miss out purely to give a kid who's really ticking all the boxes a chance, and which way we go will depend largely on how badly we want to win most weeks, and I am inferring that we will want to be winning most weeks. Projection 16 plus games for the year. Some will play less (looking at Levi and maybe Fasolo if he isnt 100%), but most will be in the team most of the time.
The Second tier (A mixture of blokes who are emerging talents/Arriving talents who are not quite 4 quarter week in and week out producers yet):
SPS (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer in only his 3rd year on the list even though he has coped to date).
Matthew Kennedy (needs a big 2019 to stamp his credentials).
Harry McKay (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer week in and week out with only 15 career games).
Zac Fisher (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer given his leg break and he has only played 34 games).
Tom Williamson
Paddy Dow (don't shoot me, he's only in his second year, and I expect him to buck the trend)
Lachie O'Brien
Will Setterfield
Caleb Marchbank (See Paddy Dow).
These guys could be anything. They will make up the interchange bench if not be walk up starts, but they will be kept honest by the aformentioned. Some of them will play every week and some of our leaders will transition into other roles, or perhaps VFL leadership roles instead.
Projection between 12-16 games for the season with anything more being a bonus.
The 3rd Tier:
Matthew Lobbe
Nic Newman (I think we got him to be a full time footballer and play a variety of stop gaps our kids cant fulfil yet but Im putting him here as he is 25 and yet to play 50 games).
Tom Bugg (I think he will play more often than not too, but he's going to have to earn his 100th AFL game).
Jarrod Garlett
David Cunningham
Jack Silvagni
Darcy Lang
Cameron Polson
Jarrod Pickett
Andrew Phillips
Kym Lebois
This group are role/depth players/unfulfilled talents who could surprise and play every week but are more likely to be filling in the gaps for team balance that we cant quite get right from the aforementioned. I expect some to play frequently but it wouldn't surprise me to see them all out of the equation for senior football (and on the scrap heap) at all and if they play even 12 games they have done well. Projection 5-15 games for the season unless they surprise or injury hits hard like last year.
The 4th Tier:
Tom De Koning
Angus Schumacher
Harrison Macreadie
Pat Kerr
Sam Walsh
Liam Stocker
Ben Silvagni
Hugh Goddard
Finbar O'Dwyer
Matthew Owies
Youngsters that are still firmly on their L plates and looking to find their feet at this level, or learn roles. Some might emerge instantly and play like seasoned pros (looking at Sam Walsh and Liam Stocker) but realistically if they get anywhere near 10 games for the year, they will be deemed a roaring success and we will not be travelling all that well if too many of them get lots of games in 2019. (Projected anywhere from 0-8 games with anything else being a major positive).
I know many are going to jump up and down about some of the players I have mentioned should be being in the first tier, but realistically the tier 2 players are all sub 50 gamers and if they are walk up starts they've either come on in leaps and bounds, or injuries have hit pretty hard.
Im really positive about this composition. I had a tough time with some players (Bugg could arguably be a 4 quarter player every week, but I think he'll be made to earn it) and some of our talented youngsters are in that sweet spot where they will go up a level again. Fisher, SPS, Marchbank, Weitering, Curnow, McGovern all should really start to kick on and go up another level in 2019. Id like to see Harry in place of Levi most weeks too, but again hes played less than 20 AFL games across the journey but going into his 4th season, anything can (and hopefully will happen).
Tier 1. Constants. Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want but these guys give you 4 quarters of bonafide established footy credentials, even if we think we have better youngsters in the next tiers waiting for a game:
Marc Murphy (7 and just going)
Kade Simpson (6 and just going)
Matthew Kreuzer (2, broke down in one)
Ed Curnow (7 and just going)
Dale Thomas (7 in good form)
Levi Casboult - Sticks out in this group. He's the last one standing who really doesn't belong here. (5 in decent form)
Mitch McGovern (6 and just going)
Alex Fasolo - Another one I toyed with, but I had Wright here, and Fasolo is the logical replacement. (2 and in poor AFL form)
Patrick Cripps (7 and in good form until the weekend)
Sam Docherty (out for season)
Lachie Plowman (7 and just going)
Liam Jones (7 in good form)
Charlie Curnow (still quite green, but he's a first name on the sheet type of player) (4 and in poor form)
Jacob Weitering (stalling a little on his promise, but he and Jones will be first names on the list types in 2019). (7 playing career best footy)
From our 14 walk up starts, we have most of them in ordinary or worse form, with only 3 playing top quality footy every week and another 4 struggling to get on the park consistently. That is the sort of stuff a team with our age demographics, can't readily afford without the next tier being in top condition.
The Second tier (A mixture of blokes who are emerging talents/Arriving talents who are not quite 4 quarter week in and week out producers yet):
SPS (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer in only his 3rd year on the list even though he has coped to date). (7 with mixed form)
Matthew Kennedy (needs a big 2019 to stamp his credentials). (0 games, dissapointing)
Harry McKay (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer week in and week out with only 15 career games). (7 games and stamped his credentials as an AFL level talent)
Zac Fisher (I almost graduated him, but I think its a bit unfair to place too high a demand to be a senior footballer given his leg break and he has only played 34 games). (7 in good form)
Tom Williamson (1 game)
Paddy Dow (don't shoot me, he's only in his second year, and I expect him to buck the trend) (7 games in what can only be described as second year blues. Was better last season).
Lachie O'Brien (5 games, and being carried weekly).
Will Setterfield (4 games until rubbed out, should have played again on the weekend)
Caleb Marchbank (See Paddy Dow). (5 games in average form).
This really tells a story. We are relying heavily on blokes that are just not full time footballers yet.
The 3rd Tier:
Matthew Lobbe (2 poor games)
Nic Newman (I think we got him to be a full time footballer and play a variety of stop gaps our kids cant fulfil yet but Im putting him here as he is 25 and yet to play 50 games). (6 games, and should be a walk up start now)
Tom Bugg (I think he will play more often than not too, but he's going to have to earn his 100th AFL game). (retired without firing a shot)
Jarrod Garlett (2 poor games)
David Cunningham (3 games, showing talent without consistency)
Jack Silvagni (3 games in career best form)
Darcy Lang (0 games, massive dissapointment)
Cameron Polson (2 games, not ready yet)
Jarrod Pickett (Injured, potentially season over)
Andrew Phillips (3 games and well beaten in each one whilst not playing terribly).
Kym Lebois (injured again hasnt fired a shot).
Michael Gibbons(new addition). (7 games)
Matthew Cottrell (new addition).
The 4th Tier:
Tom De Koning (injured 0 games)
Angus Schumacher (0 games not ready)
Harrison Macreadie (0 games just finding his feet again)
Pat Kerr (0 games)
Sam Walsh (7 games and has become a walk up start and one of our top 5 performers every week. Speaks volumes).
Liam Stocker (1 game, wasnt really ready to step up, but injuries demanded it)
Ben Silvagni (0 games, wont play this year unless we continue with the horrible injuries/form).
Hugh Goddard (looking likely, but 0 games)
Finbar O'Dwyer (0 games, wont play this year unless we continue with the horrible injuries/form).
Matthew Owies (0 games, wont play this year unless we continue with the horrible injuries/form).
This tells a real story of why sunday was a train wreck.
Our blokes that we should be relying on each and every week are generally just going, and not able to give us their best footy aside from sporadically.
As a result we are relying heavily on players that shouldn't have to shoulder such a big load already, but are doing so extremely well in some cases (SPS, Fisher, Walsh).
We have 4 players of our senior group who have given us what is required from that category of player each and every week this year.
Jones, Weitering, Cripps (who just put in his worst performance in quite some time) and Thomas. The rest have either missed footy or are going to miss footy, or are simply not stepping up as yet to be a 4 quarter player. This is somewhat offset by some of the others who are being demanded more of them, but are not quite delivering, meaning we are carrying non contributers for big chunks of games.
Why did we get thumped by North? Of our 14 Tier A players that should be in the team every week, no more than 8 started, and of those 8, only 2 gave us 4 quarters of influence. Weitering and Thomas. Everyone else when missing for at least a quarter through either injury, or just being beaten by an opponent. Our team cannot cope that under manned against a team that is so much more experienced than we were.
Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - Lods - 05-08-2019
Here's what I get from that....
Rewind back to 2015.
Did we do the right thing by embarking on a scorched earth rebuild that has left us in this position four years down the track?
I don't think we did... but were committed now.
From the second tier down there is some potential (huge potential in some cases) but also a great amount of uncertainty.
Quite a few won't even be with us next season
After thinking about what Thry posted yesterday about 'not being half way there yet' with this list...
As troubling as that was.... he may be right.
And if that's the case it's not going to be a smooth run.
There will be difficult times...but there will also be some good moments as well, as some of the kids grow.
There will be casualties in playing, coaching and administrative personnel
The folks that began this rebuild will not see it's end.
Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - Thryleon - 05-08-2019
Lods, until the guys that are playing most weeks are expected to be playing most weeks, no side we field will achieve much.
Have a look at Richmond. Their premiership coincided with one of the best runs without a significant injury I have seen in recent times, and even then when they finally won, they couldnt believe it.
Re: Team Selection Disection - The 2019 edition (starting early) - Lods - 05-08-2019
(05-08-2019, 02:18 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:Lods, until the guys that are playing most weeks are expected to be playing most weeks, no side we field will achieve much.
Have a look at Richmond. Their premiership coincided with one of the best runs without a significant injury I have seen in recent times, and even then when they finally won, they couldnt believe it.
Totally agree.
Brittain, Ratten and Malthouse could mount the same argument about injuries.
They had a worse run in significant years than any season Bolton has had but it still cost them (or at least impacted heavily) on their jobs.
We have to factor it in...especially this season, because we have had a few early on, and it may impact more as the season progresses.
It doesn't seem to count for much in assessments though.... and yes, it will detract from a continuity of games together making that progress longer.
It's also rare to get that (almost) perfect run without injuries.