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+--- Thread: Brownlow Medal 2022 (/thread-5816.html)
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - ElwoodBlues1 - 09-21-2022
(09-21-2022, 12:31 AM)laj link Wrote:A few of the best picks there ended up at other clubs. Robbo ended up a 250 game player. Jacobs over 200. Joesph, Ellard, Graham and Rowe were ok given where they were picked. Levi, who is not mentioned, who as good pick at rookie pick 44. Won't often find genius's there where they were selected and couldn't be expected to carry the club to glory. That's the nicest I can come up with, as when you look at it that is nothing short of a disaster. Bower, not mentioned, wouldn't have been too bad if he wasn't picked at 18.Bower was entertaining, it was like sideshow everytime he played, normally you would be yelling and screaming at a player who made so many mistakes but in his case you just laughed.
Doesn't Cripps stand out!
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - crashlander - 09-21-2022
To take data from the previous page:
Year Rnd Pick Team Player Where are they now Games Played
2014 1 19 Carlton Blaine Boekhorst 25
2014 2 28 Carlton Dillon Viojo-Rainbow 0
2014 4 60 Carlton Clem Smith 7
2014 4 63 Carlton Jayden Foster 0
2013 1 13 Carlton Patrick Cripps Carlton 159
2013 3 39 Carlton Cameron Giles 0
2013 3 51 Carlton Nicholas Holman Gold Coast 9
2012 1 11 Carlton Troy Menzel 44
2012 2 35 Carlton Tom Temay 0
2012 3 54 Carlton Nicholas Graham
2011 1 22 Carlton Joshua Bootsma 14
2011 2 44 Carlton Sam Rowe 100
2011 3 62 Carlton Dylan Buckley FS 41
2010 1 18 Carlton Matthew Watson 23
2010 2 34 Carlton Patrick McCarthy 1
2010 2 42 Carlton Luke Mitchell 1
2010 4 67 Carlton Andrew McInnes 17
2010 4 70 Carlton Nicholas Duigan 43
2010 5 85 Carlton Jeff Garlett R 155
2010 6 99 Carlton David Ellard R 55
2009 1 12 Carlton Kane Lucas 42
2009 3 43 Carlton Marcus Davies 17
2009 4 59 Carlton Rohan Kerr 0
2009 5 72 Carlton Sam Jacobs R 204
2009 6 83 Carlton Aaron Joseph R 50
2008 1 6 Carlton Christopher Yarran 119
2008 3 40 Carlton Mitch Robinson Brisbane 247
2008 5 65 Carlton Rhys O'Keeffe 3
2008 6 80 Carlton Caleb Tiller 0
Of the 29 players selected above, only one has been a champion, Patrick Cripps.
Only 2 were top players at other clubs, Sam Jacobs and Mitch Robinson.
Of the rest:
[1] Sam Rowe could be considered a success. He was a stalwart in bad times and should have played 100 for us, instead of having to go to St Kilda to do it. He also overcame cancer to be the player he was.
[2] Nick Guigan could have been a success, but for his knees. He was the sort of leader we were crying out for.
[3] Chris Yarran could have been anything. It was a real pity to see him spiral out of control, as he had more talent than most players could dream of having.
[4] Dylan Buckley, as a F/S, wasn’t a total failure. He may not have been the player we wanted, but we would have selected him under any of our recruitment teams.
[5] Aaron Joseph was a reasonable player for the pick he was. He did a job. The same could be said of David Ellard.
[6] Jeff Garlett … the more I think about him, the more disappointed I become. He had his flaws as a player, but giving him away was rank stupidity.
The other thing you may note is the preponderance of guys who were injured. Guys like McCarthy and Mitchell were recruited with injury problems. Even guys like Rowe had to overcome incredible adversity just to get on the field. McInnes and Duigan were ruined by injuries after looking the goods.
The other thing of note is the number of total spuds, serious recruiting errors. Taking Boekhorst at pick 19 was horrendous, but Josh Bootsma was little better. Kane Lucas was rated highly as a junior, but he was also a major fail. Tom Temay at pick 35 was another serious blunder. Of his draft cohort, the one I wanted us to avoid was Clem Smith.
This period of recruiting will go down in history as one of the poorest from any team ever.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - crashlander - 09-21-2022
(09-21-2022, 12:17 AM)crashlander link Wrote:It was much worse than a random selection would be. Probability theory suggests there should have been at least 2 successes from 12 selections.I went to the effort of modelling our success mathematically. Assuming the players were selected randomly, the only way I could get an expected value as bad as our actual selections was to have the probability of success equalling 1 in 20. That suggested that expected number to be 1.45 players. Rounding gives us 1.
A probability of 1 in 15 suggests we should have got 1.93 players, which would be rounded to 2.
This model is a random selection. The selection process should not be random: most recruiters would have a good knowledge of the draft cohort, especially the top few. This sort of outcome is incredibly poor.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - madbluboy - 09-21-2022
Looking at how much of a lotto the draft is I would trade for experience every time now.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - tonyo - 09-21-2022
I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - tonyo - 09-21-2022
I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.
:'(
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - Baggers - 09-21-2022
(09-21-2022, 03:51 AM)tonyo link Wrote:I wonder how many failures on that list would have ended up as half-decent footballers if they had been drafted by a Geelong or Sydney with a functional development program and an internal VFL side.
...or the present day CFC culture?
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - Thryleon - 09-21-2022
(09-21-2022, 02:08 AM)madbluboy link Wrote:Looking at how much of a lotto the draft is I would trade for experience every time now.Geelong tell that story better than any other team in the competition.
Everyone likes to call them dads army, but they have really smashed it out of the park with their approach.
North Melbourne were doing alright too until they stopped being able to attract a decent player.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - enz - 09-21-2022
(09-19-2022, 09:05 AM)ElwoodBlues1 link Wrote:Charlie and Matt Kennedy have a bit of split enz about them...good to see Doc well and enjoying himself.
"I See Red"
Re: Brownlow Medal 2022 - ElwoodBlues1 - 09-21-2022
(09-21-2022, 05:19 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:Geelong tell that story better than any other team in the competition.Probably an art to picking the right dads and I think the Cats have worked on the theory that the odds have to turn your way if you keep making finals and giving yourself a chance.
Everyone likes to call them dads army, but they have really smashed it out of the park with their approach.
North Melbourne were doing alright too until they stopped being able to attract a decent player.
The other thing which I have said before that favours them is essentially being a regional club ,they have that lure of lifestyle and return home factor along with virtually their own U18 team(Falcons) where most of those kids want to play with the Cats given the choice and the good ones who get taken by other clubs are always teased by the Cats to come back home.. You add strong local comps where they get also get good players from ie Stewart, Atkins, Henry and its a bit easier to keep the momentum going so you dont have to keep hitting up good players in the draft. Great management and recruiting helps for sure...who would have had money on them turning the troublesome Stengle into a AA player, his career was fecked but some how they made him come good...maybe Eddie was the key.