![]() |
|
CV and mad panic behaviour - Printable Version +- Carlton Supporters Club (http://new.carltonsc.com) +-- Forum: Social Club (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-6.html) +--- Forum: Blah-Blah Bar (http://new.carltonsc.com/forum-23.html) +--- Thread: CV and mad panic behaviour (/thread-4651.html) Pages:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
|
Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - mateinone - 09-23-2020 But Kruddler You seem to at one stage suggest it could have shut down, but then suggest logistics means it couldn't easily. But why couldn't there be trigger points, I means when we were 2x, 3x, heading for 5 x and eventually ending on 7x the weekly rate from wave 1 I understand logistics are a big factor, but I don't buy that it creates the lead time we seen. No offense Kruddler, but you seem so invested in one side of the story that you are sure there must be alternative reasons. Perhaps I am so sure of my position it makes me scoff at such reasons as being okay.. But I can't buy that we "had" to have the extra 10,000 or so infections, because Dan couldn't get the logistics right, it implies we would need to face the same scenario if there is another wave. Also the test, track/trace was a huge stuff up. I mean the people most responsible for the size and duration of this outbreak is the government. Yes the age demographics suggest there are people doing the wrong thing to of course and we see that with the fines and the idiots, but most people are compliant and with sensible, well implemented and strong enough restrictions in place sooner, many many lives would have been saved. The government though does not even want to share the data on the decision making, because it goes against he public interest. From today's papers. Quote:Victoria’s curfew was put in place on August 2 to run from 8pm to 5am. I mean come on, we don't have people mature enough to make debates and need to hide such data as though it is a state secret? Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - dodge - 09-23-2020 With the 14 day average now below trigger points for the road map, it will be interesting on Sunday to see if there are some restrictions that will be lifted early. There is significant pressure by business and on business that I think some more will be allowed to open their doors again. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - LP - 09-23-2020 The fundamental problem as I see it is that the politicians flip between ideologies of control versus extinction, it is driving the decision making. They have people some of them qualified but some unqualified whispering in their ear. NZ must have been a real wake up call, and certainly a game changer for anyone except the morbidly stupid, over there the politicians want to point the finger but the science is telling them the virus is now endemic like the flu. Virus extinction is not a real world option, it never was, but it is a wish or a dream some still have! Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - kruddler - 09-23-2020 @MIO... Obviously with some of this i'm speculating because i don't work for the government. I said earlier that i'm playing devils advocate in parts. For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is. Instead i'm saying i can understand the overall picture to a degree and i'm not arguing the modelling as that is your baby and i trust your judgement on those things. Again, on the overall spectrum he has done well. Would he do some things different if he had his time again? Sure. Wouldn't everybody?? Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - mateinone - 09-23-2020 (09-23-2020, 12:30 AM)kruddler link Wrote:For the record, i'm not saying what he has done has been perfect. Nobody is. I think that is our fundamental difference, I think on the overall spectrum he has not, on the first wave.. immensely successful, on the 2nd, really awful. Btw on the restrictions, I would ease this week, but only ever so slightly, my issue with the road map he has is the next phase. At the current rate, without some uncharted outbreak (which can happen so easily when the numbers are so low), we are on track for being under 15 cases (average over 14 days for the state) around October 1-2. That for me is when things get interesting, because NSW peaked at 13 cases a day averaged over 2 weeks in August and have managed to keep things relatively under control to date. Once Vicitoria's numbers go under NSW's peak numbers, it is going to be a hard sell to suggest that people really can't go and get a packet of smokes or a loaf of bread at 7/11 at 11pm at night. I am not against it now, but it is going to be very interesting if things change... Despite all my disappointment in Dan's handling in this case, which I have posted also away from here, I have also posted that I have faith they will alter the roadmap, it is just a case of when. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Professer E - 09-23-2020 I don't understand why SA is opening the border with NSW, when the cases there are hovering around ten a day or so, not much different to Victoria which remains in stage 4 lock down. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 09-23-2020 (09-22-2020, 11:28 PM)cookie2 link Wrote:We can discuss the politics and the politicians involved in all of this but we must also look into the public service and how well that is performing in terms of systems, people and technology in place to discharge its responsibilities, in this case manage a pandemic. I firmly believe it is sadly lacking and the problems we have witnessed are systemic. Politicians should be focused on sorting them out as well as managing the current crisis and we, the public, should be kept fully informed and not lied to. I wonder if this pandemic has woken up many to the reality of pandemics and their potential devastation. We hope that those who run the show have learned that public education & understanding becomes a priority along with future strategies to deal with another 'outbreak' swiftly and effectively. And there will be more. Personally, I believe a national pandemic should be run out of Canberra and not by individual states. These things are much better handled when there is one centralised, co-ordinated message, that is strategically ready, informed and resourced. We need to be prepared, at all levels, for future pandemics. I hope we have learned that lesson. The Federal Government has at its disposal the military and within the military there are highly ranked dudes who are trained, know and understand how to institute and manage/run a disciplined national strategy... advised and directed, of course, by senior, experienced, non-political medical/scientific personnel. Science loads the bullets, the military fires them whilst the govt of the day supports these folks and the community at large and is ultimately accountable - so you need a few ministers who bury partisan, ideological political crap and stand shoulder to shoulder with science, the military and the community to look after the entire nation. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Thryleon - 09-23-2020 I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters. Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be. 1. ICU's are literally knife edge stuff. If you are in one as a patient, you are either gone for all money, or are a slim chance of getting out alive. They should be renamed Critical care units, but I think they don't want to panic people heading into them which is why they are branded ICU not CCU. 2. The ICU's are not quick turnaround. You dont go in one day, and then come out right as rain a couple of days after you aren't critical. You go in on your death bed, and you end up in there for days on end in a life or death battle. Sometimes the outcome of either can take days, weeks or months, and from what I understand we do quite well, but its no easy feat to be in an ICU. 3. There arent as many ICU beds as everyone thinks there are. I can tell you, that the network I work for, covers a very large catchment area, and based on additional spending we can maximise our ICU's at a grand total of 66 beds in 3 hospitals with emergency departments, and a host of others without any capability.... Food for thought, our catchment area is quite large and would have a couple of million people in it from Metropolitan Melbourne. Sure, there are other options to flex into temporary setups, and private hospitals of which I am not aware of, but I can tell you now, that if the public understand that having 15+ patients in my network with covid is 25% of their capability to look after ANY patient requiring an ICU, then they might have a better understanding. The ICU's are not generally packed, but they are never empty and from memory Ive never seen them less than 50% vacant at any one time. I have only been into ICU few times during the COVID crisis, and on each occasion have seen at least a few COVID patients. During this relatively mundane wave, there was a distinct panic about what it could potentially mean if things got out of hand with the exponential growth. Food for thought. Politicise this all you like, the hospital networks were struggling at one point, and there was some genuine issues with staffing the beds, irrespective of what people may have thought about hospital capacity. Nurse to patient ratios are still a thing, and you cant open a bed if there is no one to look after the patient lying in there. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - Baggers - 09-23-2020 (09-23-2020, 07:45 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters. Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be. Important post. Further to my previous missive, as part of governments waking up to the reality of pandemics and instituting all that is needed to care for large numbers of ill folks, is to address hospital shortages and ENSURE we're ready for the next one, which could very well be much worse. Re: CV and mad panic behaviour - ElwoodBlues1 - 09-23-2020 (09-23-2020, 07:45 AM)Thryleon link Wrote:I hear people crapping on all the time about people not being in ICU during this crisis like thats all that matters. Thing is, the ICU is no laughing matter, and just because they arent full, doesnt mean that if we let things go a bit further with COVID, they wouldnt be.Thry, Agree with all of that, older patients come in with routine illness/operations and some quickly develop Pneumonia and its off to ICU and most pass away with or without Covid. The public think that a ventilator is a guarantee to save your life and the easy fix is buy more ventilators, get more beds. If you are on a ventilator the odds are not good and ICU nurses dont grow on trees, they are specially trained, you just cant go and throw grad nurses into a ICU and expect them to cope. Plus there are bad hospitals and even worse hospitals, the good ones are in short supply and the really bad ones usually exist in the less affluent areas and you also you need to be an advocate for your loved one, anyone who is 85 plus will be a DNR candidate and might not even make it to ICU. |